Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mirassol v Bragantino-SP

Inicio: 2026-04-05 23:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mirassol (Local)

Predicción 43.95%2.28momio equitativo
EV -3.76%
Ventaja -1.72%
Kelly -3.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.19

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.74%44.09%43.90%45.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.112.102.1950.00%47.50%47.62%45.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bragantino-SP (Visitante)

Predicción 27.58%3.63momio equitativo
EV +2.03%
Ventaja +0.548%
Kelly +0.751%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.00%27.50%27.60%28.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.423.413.7032.79%29.22%29.33%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.48%3.51momio equitativo
EV -3.18%
Ventaja -0.934%
Kelly -1.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.11%28.41%28.50%29.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.253.253.4034.72%30.80%30.77%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Mirassol (Local): 43.95%; Bragantino-SP (Visitante): 27.58%; Empate: 28.48%. Para Bragantino-SP (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.63. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.03%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.64%EV -4.20%E -1.92%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.30%EV +2.03%E +0.548%K +0.751%G +0.015%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -4.60%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-05 22:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.64%EV -4.20%E -1.92%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.30%EV +2.03%E +0.548%K +0.751%G +0.015%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -4.60%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-05 22:54
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.48%EV -4.20%E -1.92%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%EV +0.649%E +0.178%K +0.245%G +0.002%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%EV -4.60%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-05 22:55
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.90%EV -6.83%E -3.22%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV +0.649%E +0.178%K +0.245%G +0.002%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.02%EV -6.59%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 16:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -0.730%E -0.203%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 22:55
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -0.730%E -0.203%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 22:55
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -0.730%E -0.203%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 22:54
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -0.730%E -0.203%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 22:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -0.730%E -0.203%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 22:54
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -0.730%E -0.203%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 22:54
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.21%EV -9.03%E -4.36%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -0.730%E -0.203%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-05 22:30
Pinnacle🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.18%EV -3.76%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.03%EV -1.28%E -0.358%K -0.497%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.80%EV -4.31%E -1.28%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 22:50
GTbets🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.26%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.73%EV -1.83%E -0.515%K -0.716%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.01%EV -6.59%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 22:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.64%EV -9.03%E -4.36%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -2.11%E -0.594%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -10.29%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-05 22:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.51%EV -5.95%E -2.78%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -3.49%E -0.996%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.27%EV -4.03%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 08:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.51%EV -5.95%E -2.78%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -3.49%E -0.996%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.27%EV -4.03%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 08:49
BetAnything🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.51%EV -5.95%E -2.78%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -3.49%E -0.996%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.27%EV -4.03%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 08:50
BetUS🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.51%EV -5.95%E -2.78%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -3.49%E -0.996%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.27%EV -4.03%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 08:50
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.49%E -0.996%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-05 22:10
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -3.49%E -0.996%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 22:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.91%E -4.83%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -3.49%E -0.996%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-05 22:40
LeoVegas🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -9.47%E -4.60%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -3.49%E -0.996%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -10.29%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 22:54
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -4.87%E -1.41%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 22:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.46%EV -10.35%E -5.07%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -4.87%E -1.41%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 22:55
TABtouch🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.46%EV -10.35%E -5.07%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -4.87%E -1.41%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 22:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.70%EV -11.23%E -5.56%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -4.87%E -1.41%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-05 22:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.70%EV -11.23%E -5.56%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -4.87%E -1.41%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-05 22:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.01%EV -6.83%E -3.22%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -5.69%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 22:50
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.24%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -4.60%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 22:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.56%EV -4.63%E -2.14%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -6.24%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 22:30
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.24%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.18%E -0.934%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 22:09
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.24%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.18%E -0.934%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 22:39
Bovada🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.17%EV -4.63%E -2.14%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.24%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 22:38
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.91%E -4.83%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -6.24%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-05 22:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.62%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 22:30
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -7.62%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -4.60%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-05 22:45
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -6.83%E -3.22%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -7.62%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-05 22:34
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -6.83%E -3.22%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -7.62%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-05 22:34
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -6.83%E -3.22%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -7.62%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-05 22:35
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.18%E -0.934%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 22:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.18%E -0.934%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 22:30
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.18%E -0.934%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 22:35
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 22:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.18%E -0.934%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-05 22:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -9.91%E -4.83%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -3.18%E -0.934%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 22:45
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-05 22:50
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-05 22:50
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.91%E -4.83%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -14.57%E -4.86%K -7.28%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-05 22:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -10.38%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -4.60%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 22:29
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.51%E -2.56%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -10.38%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -4.60%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 22:30
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -10.38%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-05 22:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.83%EV -9.91%E -4.83%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -10.38%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -10.29%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-05 22:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -9.91%E -4.83%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.78%EV -11.21%E -3.48%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.58%EV -10.86%E -3.47%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-05 22:32
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -7.71%E -3.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -11.76%E -3.67%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-05 22:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -12.11%E -6.05%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -14.52%E -4.68%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -17.98%E -6.24%K -9.57%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-05 22:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -12.11%E -6.05%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.63%EV -15.90%E -5.21%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.72%EV -10.29%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-05 22:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.76%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-04-05 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.76%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-04-05 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.76%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-04-05 22:55
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.76%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-04-05 22:55
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.63%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.46%1.8%2026-04-05 22:55
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.14%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-04-05 22:35