L’École des cotes

Internacional v Grêmio

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-11 23:32 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

52 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Internacional (Local)

Prévision 52.69%1.90cote équitable
EV -1.48%
Avantage -0.789%
Kelly -1.70%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.87

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
50.24%52.60%52.63%54.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.671.771.771.8759.88%56.64%56.50%53.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Grêmio (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.45%4.89cote équitable
EV +5.13%
Avantage +0.998%
Kelly +1.24%
Croissance +0.064%

avec la cote maximale 5.14

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.77%20.51%20.54%22.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.104.514.505.1424.39%22.17%22.22%19.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.86%3.72cote équitable
EV -0.618%
Avantage -0.167%
Kelly -0.229%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.05%26.89%26.83%28.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.463.483.7033.33%28.91%28.78%27.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (52 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.86%EV -6.74%E -3.81%K -8.76%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.89%EV +5.13%E +0.998%K +1.24%G +0.064%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25%EV -0.618%E -0.167%K -0.229%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-11 23:29
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -7.80%E -4.46%K -10.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV +2.27%E +0.453%K +0.566%G +0.013%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 23:30
Pinnacle1.81I 55.25%NM 53.44%EV -4.64%E -2.56%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.62%EV +0.834%E +0.169%K +0.212%G +0.002%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.94%EV -3.57%E -0.995%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 23:29
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 54.00%EV -9.91%E -5.79%K -13.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV +0.220%E +0.045%K +0.057%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 23:29
BetOnline.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 53.20%EV -5.69%E -3.18%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -2.85%E -0.599%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.75%EV -4.38%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 23:29
LowVig.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 53.20%EV -5.69%E -3.18%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -2.85%E -0.599%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.75%EV -4.38%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 23:30
BetAnything1.79I 55.87%NM 53.20%EV -5.69%E -3.18%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -2.85%E -0.599%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.75%EV -4.38%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 23:29
GTbets1.78I 56.18%NM 53.46%EV -6.22%E -3.49%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -2.85%E -0.599%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.51%EV -3.57%E -0.995%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 23:29
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -8.85%E -5.12%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.85%E -0.599%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -3.30%E -0.918%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 23:30
Everygame1.75I 57.14%NM 53.31%EV -7.80%E -4.46%K -10.40%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -2.85%E -0.599%K -0.759%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -7.33%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 23:29
Coolbet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.88%EV -3.58%E -1.96%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -3.87%E -0.823%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 23:29
BetUS1.77I 56.50%NM 53.13%EV -6.74%E -3.81%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV -3.87%E -0.823%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 23:29
Marathon Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.02%EV -7.27%E -4.13%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -3.87%E -0.823%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.13%EV -7.60%E -2.21%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 23:29
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.42%EV -9.38%E -5.45%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%EV -3.87%E -0.823%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-11 23:30
ATG (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 52.38%EV -2.53%E -1.37%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.07%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%EV -1.96%E -0.537%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 23:29
Svenska Spel1.85I 54.05%NM 52.38%EV -2.53%E -1.37%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.07%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%EV -1.96%E -0.537%K -0.740%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 23:30
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 52.68%EV -5.16%E -2.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.61%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 23:30
Codere (IT)1.79I 55.87%NM 52.82%EV -5.69%E -3.18%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 23:30
BetMGM1.77I 56.50%NM 53.29%EV -6.74%E -3.81%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -3.30%E -0.918%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 23:29
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.80%E -4.46%K -10.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 23:29
William Hill1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.80%E -4.46%K -10.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 23:30
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.80%E -4.46%K -10.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 23:29
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.80%E -4.46%K -10.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -5.92%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 23:29
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.52%EV -6.22%E -3.49%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 23:29
Betway1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%EV -6.74%E -3.81%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 23:29
Paddy Power1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -10.43%E -6.14%K -14.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-11 23:30
Sky Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.38%EV -10.43%E -6.14%K -14.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -7.96%E -1.77%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -14.05%E -4.39%K -6.39%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-11 23:30
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.19%EV -6.22%E -3.49%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -8.98%E -2.02%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -7.33%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 23:30
Betsson1.78I 56.18%NM 52.19%EV -6.22%E -3.49%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -8.98%E -2.02%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -7.33%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 23:30
Unibet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.19%EV -5.16%E -2.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 23:30
Unibet (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.19%EV -5.16%E -2.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 23:22
Unibet (NL)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.19%EV -5.16%E -2.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 23:22
Casumo1.80I 55.56%NM 52.19%EV -5.16%E -2.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 23:29
Grosvenor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.19%EV -5.16%E -2.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 23:22
betPARX1.80I 55.56%NM 52.19%EV -5.16%E -2.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 23:22
PlayUp1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -6.74%E -3.81%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -10.01%E -2.27%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 23:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.28%EV -6.74%E -3.81%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.27%EV -11.03%E -2.54%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 23:30
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -7.27%E -4.13%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.13%EV -11.03%E -2.54%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -7.33%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-11 23:22
Unibet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -11.49%E -6.84%K -16.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -11.03%E -2.54%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 23:29
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14%NM 51.69%EV -7.80%E -4.46%K -10.40%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.89%EV -11.44%E -2.64%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-11 23:30
TABtouch1.74I 57.47%NM 52.38%EV -8.32%E -4.78%K -11.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.20%EV -12.05%E -2.80%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.42%EV -7.33%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 23:22
PMU (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 52.38%EV -8.32%E -4.78%K -11.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.20%EV -12.05%E -2.80%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.42%EV -7.33%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 23:22
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.47%EV -9.38%E -5.45%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.99%EV -12.05%E -2.80%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.54%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 23:30
Betclic (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 52.64%EV -10.43%E -6.14%K -14.90%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -12.05%E -2.80%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.55%EV -9.48%E -2.81%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 23:23
Bet Right1.80I 55.56%NM 51.80%EV -5.16%E -2.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -13.07%E -3.08%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 23:29
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -5.16%E -2.87%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -13.07%E -3.08%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 23:29
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.88%EV -6.22%E -3.49%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -13.07%E -3.08%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 23:29
Virgin Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 52.34%EV -9.38%E -5.45%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.18%EV -13.07%E -3.08%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 23:30
LiveScore Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 52.34%EV -9.38%E -5.45%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.18%EV -13.07%E -3.08%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 23:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 51.17%EV -12.01%E -7.19%K -17.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.35%EV -14.10%E -3.36%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.48%EV -19.42%E -6.47%K -9.71%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-11 23:27
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -1.48%E -0.789%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -16.14%E -3.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 23:30
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 51.61%EV -10.43%E -6.14%K -14.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.40%EV -16.14%E -3.94%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-11 23:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.22%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.82%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96%0.2%2026-04-11 23:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.69%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.10%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.21%0.7%2026-04-11 23:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.69%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.10%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.21%0.7%2026-04-11 23:30
Matchbook1.83I 54.64%NM 54.14%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.35%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%0.9%2026-04-11 23:30
Smarkets1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.79%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.52%2.3%2026-04-11 23:30
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 52.76%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%5.9%2026-04-11 23:30