Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio v Atletico Mineiro

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 42.38%2.36fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.35%42.39%42.38%44.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.192.202.3051.28%45.59%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 28.67%3.49fair odd
EV +1.19%
Edge +0.337%
Kelly +0.471%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.47%28.69%28.64%30.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.223.203.5333.90%31.02%31.25%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.95%3.45fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.374%
Kelly -0.530%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.20%28.92%28.98%29.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.203.203.4135.09%31.24%31.25%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 42.38%; Atletico Mineiro (Visit): 28.67%; Draw: 28.95%. For Atletico Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.08%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.47%EV +1.19%E +0.337%K +0.471%G +0.006%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.44%EV -1.28%E -0.374%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-26 00:25
Coolbet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.28%EV -5.91%E -2.66%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.61%EV -0.242%E -0.070%K -0.098%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-25 11:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.29%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -1.96%E -0.574%K -0.811%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-25 23:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.29%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -1.96%E -0.574%K -0.811%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-25 23:40
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.60%EV -3.79%E -1.67%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.44%EV -2.54%E -0.746%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.95%EV -3.30%E -0.989%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-26 00:05
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -2.54%E -0.746%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-25 23:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.95%EV -2.52%E -1.10%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.80%EV -3.01%E -0.900%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-26 00:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.95%EV -2.52%E -1.10%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.24%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.80%EV -3.01%E -0.900%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-25 23:55
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -4.64%E -2.06%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-25 23:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.34%EV -5.49%E -2.46%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-25 22:55
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -4.64%E -2.06%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-25 22:25
Bovada🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.56%EV -6.33%E -2.87%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-26 00:15
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:50
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 23:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -8.88%E -4.13%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -5.40%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-25 22:39
GTbets🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -5.91%E -2.66%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.84%EV -6.26%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.67%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-26 00:24
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 00:00
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.46%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 23:38
BetUS🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -5.49%E -2.46%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-26 00:19
BetAnything🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -5.49%E -2.46%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-26 00:19
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-25 23:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.84%E -2.10%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-25 23:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.22%EV -6.33%E -2.87%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.98%EV -7.70%E -2.39%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-26 00:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.64%E -2.06%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 23:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.64%E -2.06%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 23:59
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.64%E -2.06%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 23:59
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.64%E -2.06%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 23:55
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.64%E -2.06%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-26 00:00
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -4.64%E -2.06%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 23:55
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.96%EV -5.49%E -2.46%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.79%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-25 23:54
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -5.91%E -2.66%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-25 23:40
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -5.91%E -2.66%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-25 23:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-25 23:45
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-25 23:39
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-26 00:05
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-26 00:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-26 00:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-26 00:05
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -11.00%E -5.24%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -8.27%E -2.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-25 22:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.21%EV -12.27%E -5.93%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.13%EV -8.84%E -2.78%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.67%EV -9.67%E -3.10%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-25 23:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-25 23:58
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -6.76%E -3.07%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-25 23:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.58%EV -11.00%E -5.24%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -9.70%E -3.08%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.03%EV -10.83%E -3.52%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-26 00:05
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -4.64%E -2.06%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-26 00:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.88%E -4.13%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-25 22:55
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.88%E -4.13%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-25 23:39
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.86%EV -8.03%E -3.70%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -8.80%E -2.79%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-25 23:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.88%E -4.13%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-25 23:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.88%E -4.13%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-26 00:00
Fliff🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -11.00%E -5.24%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -8.80%E -2.79%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-26 00:09
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -11.00%E -5.24%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.63%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.10%EV -11.70%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-26 00:04
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -11.00%E -5.24%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -13.15%E -4.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%13.2%2026-02-25 22:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -13.12%E -6.40%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -14.00%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -10.25%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%14.4%2026-02-25 22:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 42.64%EV -17.35%E -8.90%K -18.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.19%EV -15.44%E -5.23%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.17%EV -17.49%E -6.14%K -9.45%G +0.000%20.3%2026-02-25 23:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.98%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33%0.3%2026-02-26 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.98%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33%0.3%2026-02-26 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.98%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33%0.3%2026-02-26 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.98%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33%0.3%2026-02-26 00:20
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.84%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.75%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%1.5%2026-02-26 00:20