La escuela de los momios

Fluminense v Sao Paulo

Inicio: 2026-05-16 22:00 UTC

Final: Fluminense 2–1 Sao Paulo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Fluminense (Local)

Predicción 54.37%1.84momio equitativo
EV -1.60%
Ventaja -0.881%
Kelly -1.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.72%54.37%54.34%56.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.611.701.701.8162.11%58.81%58.82%55.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sao Paulo (Visitante)

Predicción 19.65%5.09momio equitativo
EV +5.13%
Ventaja +0.959%
Kelly +1.18%
Crecimiento +0.061%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.70%19.60%19.71%21.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.204.794.805.3523.81%20.89%20.83%18.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.98%3.85momio equitativo
EV +0.031%
Ventaja +0.008%
Kelly +0.011%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.99%26.03%25.95%27.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.583.603.8532.26%27.89%27.78%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.75I 57.14%NM 55.15%EV -4.86%E -2.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 18.04%EV +5.13%E +0.959%K +1.18%G +0.061%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.81%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-16 21:56
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 55.50%EV -8.12%E -4.80%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV +4.15%E +0.783%K +0.965%G +0.040%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 21:45
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.30%EV -8.12%E -4.80%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.12%EV +3.17%E +0.603%K +0.745%G +0.024%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.58%EV -3.35%E -0.900%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 21:50
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.30%EV -8.12%E -4.80%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.12%EV +3.17%E +0.603%K +0.745%G +0.024%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.58%EV -3.35%E -0.900%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 21:50
BetAnything1.69I 59.17%NM 56.30%EV -8.12%E -4.80%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.12%EV +3.17%E +0.603%K +0.745%G +0.024%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.58%EV -3.35%E -0.900%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 21:50
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.97%EV -5.40%E -3.10%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.73%EV +2.18%E +0.420%K +0.520%G +0.011%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.30%EV +0.031%E +0.008%K +0.011%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-16 21:55
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.97%EV -5.40%E -3.10%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.73%EV +2.18%E +0.420%K +0.520%G +0.011%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.30%EV +0.031%E +0.008%K +0.011%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-16 21:55
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.67%EV -5.40%E -3.10%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.84%EV +1.00%E +0.195%K +0.242%G +0.002%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -1.27%E -0.334%K -0.453%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-16 21:56
Bovada1.72I 58.14%NM 54.47%EV -6.49%E -3.77%K -9.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.37%EV +0.218%E +0.043%K +0.053%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -10.36%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 21:55
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 55.14%EV -7.03%E -4.11%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.67%EV -0.765%E -0.151%K -0.189%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 21:55
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.04%EV -7.03%E -4.11%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -1.75%E -0.350%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 21:10
Unibet (NL)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -8.66%E -5.16%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -1.75%E -0.350%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -3.87%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 21:55
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -8.66%E -5.16%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -1.75%E -0.350%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -3.87%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 21:56
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -8.66%E -5.16%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -1.75%E -0.350%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -3.87%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 21:55
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -8.66%E -5.16%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -1.75%E -0.350%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -3.87%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 21:55
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -8.66%E -5.16%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -1.75%E -0.350%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -3.87%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 21:56
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -8.66%E -5.16%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -1.75%E -0.350%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -3.87%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 21:56
SportsBet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -7.58%E -4.46%K -10.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -1.75%E -0.350%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 21:45
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 54.56%EV -7.58%E -4.46%K -10.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -1.75%E -0.350%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -10.36%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 21:35
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -10.29%E -6.24%K -15.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -1.75%E -0.350%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -11.66%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.90%EV -10.29%E -6.24%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -3.71%E -0.758%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -5.17%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 21:55
LeoVegas1.64I 60.98%NM 56.05%EV -10.84%E -6.61%K -16.93%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -3.71%E -0.758%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -5.17%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 21:56
Tipico (DE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.01%EV -9.21%E -5.51%K -13.74%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -3.71%E -0.758%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 21:20
Marathon Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.25%EV -6.49%E -3.77%K -9.01%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.24%EV -4.70%E -0.968%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -8.54%E -2.43%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 21:35
Codere (IT)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.51%EV -5.94%E -3.44%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -5.68%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.84%EV -5.17%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 20:55
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.32%EV -5.94%E -3.44%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -5.68%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 21:46
PMU (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.79%EV -11.38%E -6.98%K -18.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -5.68%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 21:56
TABtouch1.63I 61.35%NM 55.79%EV -11.38%E -6.98%K -18.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -5.68%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 21:56
Virgin Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 55.90%EV -12.47%E -7.74%K -20.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -5.68%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.35%EV -7.76%E -2.19%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-16 21:55
LiveScore Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 55.90%EV -12.47%E -7.74%K -20.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -5.68%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.35%EV -7.76%E -2.19%K -3.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-16 21:55
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -5.94%E -3.44%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.66%E -1.40%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 20:55
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 54.50%EV -7.03%E -4.11%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -6.66%E -1.40%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 20:55
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -9.21%E -5.51%K -13.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -6.66%E -1.40%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 20:55
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 53.83%EV -9.21%E -5.51%K -13.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.93%EV -6.66%E -1.40%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -14.26%E -4.32%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-16 21:45
BetRivers1.72I 58.14%NM 54.24%EV -6.49%E -3.77%K -9.01%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -7.64%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 21:41
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 53.20%EV -4.86%E -2.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.64%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.36%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 21:30
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.20%EV -4.86%E -2.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -7.64%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.36%E -3.00%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 21:30
GTbets1.81I 55.25%NM 52.92%EV -1.60%E -0.881%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.55%EV -8.43%E -1.81%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.53%EV -6.20%E -1.72%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-16 18:20
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.28%EV -5.40%E -3.10%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -9.61%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -2.57%E -0.685%K -0.933%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 21:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -5.94%E -3.44%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -9.61%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -2.57%E -0.685%K -0.933%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 21:15
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -5.94%E -3.44%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -9.61%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -2.57%E -0.685%K -0.933%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 21:15
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 52.77%EV -4.86%E -2.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -9.61%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -11.66%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 21:31
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 53.49%EV -7.58%E -4.46%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -9.61%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -11.66%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 20:55
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.49%EV -7.58%E -4.46%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -9.61%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -11.66%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 20:55
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.49%EV -7.58%E -4.46%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -9.61%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -11.66%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 20:55
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 53.49%EV -7.58%E -4.46%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -9.61%E -2.09%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -11.66%E -3.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 20:55
Coolbet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.47%EV -3.23%E -1.81%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -2.57%E -0.685%K -0.933%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 19:50
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.86%E -2.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 21:10
PointsBet (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.86%E -2.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 19:50
Neds1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -6.49%E -3.77%K -9.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -3.87%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 21:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -6.49%E -3.77%K -9.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -3.87%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 21:10
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 54.43%EV -10.84%E -6.61%K -16.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -11.57%E -2.57%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.73%EV -9.84%E -2.84%K -3.98%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 21:33
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -4.86%E -2.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -13.54%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 19:50
Bet Right1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -4.86%E -2.78%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -13.54%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 19:50
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.29%EV -8.66%E -5.16%K -12.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -13.54%E -3.08%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -5.17%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 20:55
Unibet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 54.03%EV -12.47%E -7.74%K -20.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.00%EV -14.52%E -3.34%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -12.96%E -3.87%K -5.51%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-16 21:35
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 53.19%EV -5.94%E -3.44%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -14.91%E -3.44%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -6.46%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 19:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 52.72%EV -11.92%E -7.36%K -19.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.73%EV -14.91%E -3.44%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.55%EV -19.46%E -6.28%K -9.26%G +0.000%17.1%2026-05-16 21:00
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 53.79%EV -10.84%E -6.61%K -16.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.00%EV -17.47%E -4.16%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-16 20:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.96%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.48%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%0.4%2026-05-16 21:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.96%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.48%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%0.4%2026-05-16 21:45
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 56.10%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-05-16 21:45
Matchbook1.77I 56.50%NM 56.10%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-05-16 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.77I 56.50%NM 56.10%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-05-16 21:56
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.38%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.43%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-05-16 21:45