Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fluminense v Corinthians

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fluminense (Local)

Prediction 52.50%1.90fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.695%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.79%52.62%52.42%55.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.771.751.8859.52%56.54%57.14%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Corinthians (Visit)

Prediction 19.37%5.16fair odd
EV +4.61%
Edge +0.855%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.67%19.40%19.30%21.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.874.855.4023.53%20.53%20.62%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.13%3.55fair odd
EV +0.427%
Edge +0.119%
Kelly +0.166%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.28%27.98%28.29%29.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.303.5732.26%30.21%30.30%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fluminense (Local): 52.50%; Corinthians (Visit): 19.37%; Draw: 28.13%. For Corinthians (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.16. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.46%EV -9.71%E -5.64%K -13.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.67%EV +4.61%E +0.855%K +1.05%G +0.048%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -0.136%E -0.038%K -0.053%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-01 23:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.37%EV -4.98%E -2.75%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.22%EV +2.68%E +0.505%K +0.623%G +0.017%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.41%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-02 00:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.37%EV -4.98%E -2.75%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.22%EV +2.68%E +0.505%K +0.623%G +0.017%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.41%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-02 00:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV +0.740%E +0.142%K +0.176%G +0.001%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:10
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV +0.740%E +0.142%K +0.176%G +0.001%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:10
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV +0.740%E +0.142%K +0.176%G +0.001%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV +0.740%E +0.142%K +0.176%G +0.001%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:10
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV +0.740%E +0.142%K +0.176%G +0.001%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:10
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV +0.740%E +0.142%K +0.176%G +0.001%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:09
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV +0.740%E +0.142%K +0.176%G +0.001%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:09
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.19%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.28%EV -0.229%E -0.044%K -0.055%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-02 00:18
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.19%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.28%EV -0.229%E -0.044%K -0.055%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-02 00:20
BetAnything🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.19%EV -7.08%E -4.00%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.28%EV -0.229%E -0.044%K -0.055%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-02 00:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.03%EV -3.93%E -2.15%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.67%EV -1.20%E -0.235%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-02 00:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.03%EV -3.93%E -2.15%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.67%EV -1.20%E -0.235%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-02 00:20
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.52%EV -8.66%E -4.98%K -11.70%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -1.20%E -0.235%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-02 00:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.43%EV -9.18%E -5.31%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.13%EV -1.20%E -0.235%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 00:10
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -9.71%E -5.64%K -13.48%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -1.20%E -0.235%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-02 00:10
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.49%EV -1.31%E -0.695%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 19.09%EV -1.78%E -0.351%K -0.437%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.42%EV -7.45%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-02 00:10
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -8.66%E -4.98%K -11.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -3.13%E -0.627%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -1.54%E -0.441%K -0.617%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-01 23:40
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -3.13%E -0.627%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-01 23:45
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.95%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -3.13%E -0.627%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 00:20
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -10.76%E -6.33%K -15.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -3.13%E -0.627%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-02 00:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.73%EV -11.81%E -7.03%K -17.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -3.13%E -0.627%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-02 00:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.73%EV -11.81%E -7.03%K -17.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -3.13%E -0.627%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-02 00:10
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -10.76%E -6.33%K -15.37%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -4.10%E -0.829%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -0.136%E -0.038%K -0.053%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -5.07%E -1.04%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.72%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-02 00:09
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.91%EV -3.93%E -2.15%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.96%EV -6.04%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.12%EV +0.427%E +0.119%K +0.166%G +0.001%3.3%2026-04-02 00:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.45%EV -6.56%E -3.68%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.25%EV -6.04%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-02 00:20
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -5.51%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -7.01%E -1.46%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-02 00:19
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.01%E -1.46%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -1.54%E -0.441%K -0.617%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-02 00:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.07%EV -5.51%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -7.01%E -1.46%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:20
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -7.01%E -1.46%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-02 00:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -7.01%E -1.46%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-02 00:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -7.01%E -1.46%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-02 00:20
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -8.13%E -4.65%K -10.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -7.01%E -1.46%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-02 00:20
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.55%EV -3.93%E -2.15%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -7.98%E -1.68%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 00:14
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.50%EV -9.18%E -5.31%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.12%EV -7.98%E -1.68%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-01 23:45
GTbets🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.05%EV -4.98%E -2.75%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.73I 21.14%NM 19.92%EV -8.37%E -1.77%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.04%EV -5.48%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-02 00:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.66%EV -3.93%E -2.15%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -8.95%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-02 00:15
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.35%EV -4.46%E -2.45%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -8.95%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-02 00:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -5.51%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -10.88%E -2.37%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -5.51%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -10.88%E -2.37%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:10
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -5.51%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -10.88%E -2.37%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:10
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -5.51%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -10.88%E -2.37%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 00:09
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -5.51%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -10.88%E -2.37%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-02 00:20
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.70%EV -9.18%E -5.31%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -10.88%E -2.37%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -12.79%E -4.13%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-02 00:15
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -5.51%E -3.06%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -12.82%E -2.85%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 00:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.96%EV -7.61%E -4.32%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -12.82%E -2.85%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-02 00:20
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -4.46%E -2.45%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -14.76%E -3.35%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 00:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.58%EV -9.18%E -5.31%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -14.76%E -3.35%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.15%EV -10.83%E -3.42%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-02 00:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.48%EV -9.18%E -5.31%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -14.76%E -3.35%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -11.39%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-02 00:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.06%EV -4.46%E -2.45%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.61%EV -16.70%E -3.88%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-02 00:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.68%EV -10.76%E -6.33%K -15.37%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.43%EV -16.70%E -3.88%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.89%EV -11.39%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-02 00:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -3.93%E -2.15%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -17.66%E -4.16%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-02 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.12%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.88%0.4%2026-04-02 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.12%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.88%0.4%2026-04-02 00:20
Matchbook1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.12%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.88%0.4%2026-04-02 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.07%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%0.6%2026-04-02 00:20
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 52.73%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.26%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.00%1.4%2026-04-02 00:20
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 53.37%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.47%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.16%2.9%2026-04-02 00:20