The School of Odds

Fluminense v Bahia

2026-07-30 00:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Fluminense (Local)

Prediction 50.67%1.97fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.90%50.67%50.60%51.35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.681.811.831.8960%55%55%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Bahia (Visit)

Prediction 23.36%4.28fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.448%
Kelly -0.588%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.11%23.36%23.32%24.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.453.924.004.2029%25%25%24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.97%3.85fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.344%
Kelly -0.466%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.49%25.97%26.08%26.24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.573.603.8031%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 51.35%EV -4.24%E -2.24%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -1.88%E -0.448%K -0.588%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -1.31%E -0.344%K -0.466%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-20 10:45
Svenska Spel1.89I 52.91%NM 51.35%EV -4.24%E -2.24%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -1.88%E -0.448%K -0.588%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -1.31%E -0.344%K -0.466%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-20 10:45
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -6.27%E -3.39%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -7.72%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-20 00:55
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -6.27%E -3.39%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -7.72%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-20 00:55
Unibet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -5.20%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 10:45
Unibet (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -5.20%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 10:45
Casumo1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -5.20%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 10:45
Unibet (NL)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -5.20%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 10:45
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -5.20%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 10:45
BetRivers1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -5.20%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 10:45
betPARX1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -5.20%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-20 10:43
Codere (IT)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.68%EV -7.28%E -3.98%K -8.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-20 01:00
TABtouch1.82I 54.95%NM 51.19%EV -7.79%E -4.28%K -9.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.52%EV -5.20%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-20 10:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.81I 55.25%NM 51.14%EV -8.29%E -4.58%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -6.55%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-20 10:45
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -8.80%E -4.89%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.89%E -2.28%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-20 00:55
PMU (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -9.81%E -5.51%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.89%E -2.28%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-20 10:45
LiveScore Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -9.81%E -5.51%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.89%E -2.28%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-20 10:45
Virgin Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -9.81%E -5.51%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -8.89%E -2.28%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-20 10:45
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 50.12%EV -11.84%E -6.81%K -16.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.23%EV -15.90%E -4.42%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.65%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-20 03:35
Unibet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 50.35%EV -12.85%E -7.47%K -17.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.41%EV -13.56%E -3.67%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.24%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%15.5%2026-07-20 00:55
Betclic (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 50.43%EV -13.36%E -7.81%K -18.82%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.43%EV -14.03%E -3.81%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-20 00:54
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 49.90%EV -14.88%E -8.86%K -21.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.30%EV -19.40%E -5.62%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.80%EV -15.59%E -4.80%K -6.93%G +0.000%19.3%2026-07-20 03:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.