Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Flamengo v Vitoria

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 22:30 UTC

Final: Flamengo 2–0 Vitoria

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Flamengo (Local)

Prediction 75.28%1.33fair odd
EV -0.631%
Edge -0.478%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.65%74.80%75.24%77.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.241.241.3284.75%80.85%80.65%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vitoria (Visit)

Prediction 8.37%11.95fair odd
EV +17.20%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.228%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.88%8.68%8.51%13.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.1011.3911.0014.0014.08%8.78%9.09%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.35%6.12fair odd
EV +2.18%
Edge +0.349%
Kelly +0.415%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.42%16.51%16.24%18.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.955.685.756.2520.20%17.61%17.39%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Flamengo (Local): 75.28%; Vitoria (Visit): 8.37%; Draw: 16.35%. For Vitoria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.95. 27 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.70%EV -6.65%E -5.37%K -27.72%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.88%EV +17.20%E +1.23%K +1.32%G +0.228%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.42%EV +2.18%E +0.349%K +0.415%G +0.009%3.8%2026-08-09 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.70%EV -6.65%E -5.37%K -27.72%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.88%EV +17.20%E +1.23%K +1.32%G +0.228%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.42%EV +2.18%E +0.349%K +0.415%G +0.009%3.8%2026-08-09 21:50
SportsBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.38%EV -6.65%E -5.37%K -27.72%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.29%EV +8.83%E +0.679%K +0.736%G +0.065%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -5.18%E -0.893%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 22:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.22%EV -4.39%E -3.46%K -16.28%G +0.000%12.65I 7.91%NM 7.65%EV +5.90%E +0.466%K +0.506%G +0.030%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.13%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 22:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.22%EV -4.39%E -3.46%K -16.28%G +0.000%12.65I 7.91%NM 7.65%EV +5.90%E +0.466%K +0.506%G +0.030%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.13%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 22:10
BetUS🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.22%EV -4.39%E -3.46%K -16.28%G +0.000%12.65I 7.91%NM 7.65%EV +5.90%E +0.466%K +0.506%G +0.030%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.13%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 22:15
BetAnything🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.22%EV -4.39%E -3.46%K -16.28%G +0.000%12.65I 7.91%NM 7.65%EV +5.90%E +0.466%K +0.506%G +0.030%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.13%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 22:09
1xBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -3.64%E -2.85%K -13.01%G +0.000%12.60I 7.94%NM 7.70%EV +5.48%E +0.435%K +0.473%G +0.026%5.86I 17.06%NM 16.55%EV -4.20%E -0.716%K -0.864%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-09 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.87%EV -8.16%E -6.69%K -37.08%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +4.64%E +0.372%K +0.404%G +0.019%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 21:50
Casumo🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.87%EV -8.16%E -6.69%K -37.08%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +4.64%E +0.372%K +0.404%G +0.019%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 21:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.87%EV -8.16%E -6.69%K -37.08%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +4.64%E +0.372%K +0.404%G +0.019%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 21:50
Grosvenor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.87%EV -8.16%E -6.69%K -37.08%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +4.64%E +0.372%K +0.404%G +0.019%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 21:50
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.87%EV -8.16%E -6.69%K -37.08%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +4.64%E +0.372%K +0.404%G +0.019%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 21:49
betPARX🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.87%EV -8.16%E -6.69%K -37.08%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +4.64%E +0.372%K +0.404%G +0.019%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 21:50
NordicBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.63%EV -4.39%E -3.46%K -16.28%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV +4.64%E +0.372%K +0.404%G +0.019%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.89%EV -19.07%E -3.85%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 22:25
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.63%EV -4.39%E -3.46%K -16.28%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV +4.64%E +0.372%K +0.404%G +0.019%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.89%EV -19.07%E -3.85%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 22:25
Pinnacle🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.10%EV -5.15%E -4.09%K -19.80%G +0.000%12.36I 8.09%NM 7.76%EV +3.47%E +0.281%K +0.306%G +0.011%5.94I 16.84%NM 16.14%EV -2.89%E -0.486%K -0.585%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-09 22:25
GTbets🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.96%EV -6.65%E -5.37%K -27.72%G +0.000%12.26I 8.16%NM 7.68%EV +2.64%E +0.215%K +0.234%G +0.006%5.76I 17.36%NM 16.35%EV -5.83%E -1.01%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 22:20
Coolbet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.93%EV -4.39%E -3.46%K -16.28%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.93%EV +0.459%E +0.038%K +0.042%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.15%EV -9.26%E -1.67%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 22:00
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.65%E -5.37%K -27.72%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +0.459%E +0.038%K +0.042%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.78%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 20:55
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.16%E -6.69%K -37.08%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +0.459%E +0.038%K +0.042%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 22:18
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.16%E -6.69%K -37.08%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +0.459%E +0.038%K +0.042%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 22:18
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.50%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +0.459%E +0.038%K +0.042%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -14.17%E -2.70%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 21:45
FanDuel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.37%EV -8.91%E -7.36%K -42.44%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV +0.459%E +0.038%K +0.042%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -5.18%E -0.893%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 22:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.56%EV -8.16%E -6.69%K -37.08%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +0.459%E +0.038%K +0.042%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 21:40
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.63%EV -9.66%E -8.05%K -48.32%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV +0.459%E +0.038%K +0.042%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -18.26%E -3.65%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 22:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.63%EV -9.66%E -8.05%K -48.32%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV +0.459%E +0.038%K +0.042%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -18.26%E -3.65%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 22:20
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.35%EV -4.39%E -3.46%K -16.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.95%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 22:10
LeoVegas🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 19:30
Fanatics🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 16:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.24%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%EV -5.18%E -0.893%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 22:15
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -6.00%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 22:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -6.00%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 22:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -6.00%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 22:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.13%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -6.00%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 22:09
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -6.65%E -5.37%K -27.72%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -6.00%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 22:14
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 16:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 16:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.73%EV -6.65%E -5.37%K -27.72%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.42%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 16:40
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -8.16%E -6.69%K -37.08%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-07 07:05
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.41%EV -8.91%E -7.36%K -42.44%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.29%EV -8.45%E -1.51%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 21:49
TABtouch🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.56%EV -9.66%E -8.05%K -48.32%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -8.45%E -1.51%K -1.84%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.56%EV -9.66%E -8.05%K -48.32%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV -8.45%E -1.51%K -1.84%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 21:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.65%EV -11.17%E -9.47%K -62.05%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.65%EV -11.17%E -9.47%K -62.05%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 21:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.65%EV -11.17%E -9.47%K -62.05%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -7.91%E -0.719%K -0.791%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 21:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.16%EV -8.91%E -7.36%K -42.44%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.75%EV -14.19%E -1.38%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -14.17%E -2.70%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-09 22:10
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -16.28%E -1.63%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -1.91%E -0.318%K -0.382%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 21:44
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -16.28%E -1.63%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 20:45
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -16.28%E -1.63%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 20:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -16.28%E -1.63%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 20:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -5.90%E -4.72%K -23.60%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -16.28%E -1.63%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 20:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.66%EV -10.42%E -8.75%K -54.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.88%EV -16.28%E -1.63%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.45%EV -11.72%E -2.17%K -2.66%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 22:14
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.53%EV -9.66%E -8.05%K -48.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -16.28%E -1.63%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.26%E -3.65%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-09 21:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.33%EV -7.41%E -6.02%K -32.20%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.62%EV -20.47%E -2.15%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.04%EV -6.81%E -1.20%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 22:09
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -2.89%E -2.24%K -9.96%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -24.66%E -2.74%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -18.26%E -3.65%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 22:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.83%EV -8.91%E -7.36%K -42.44%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.93%EV -24.66%E -2.74%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.24%EV -10.08%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 22:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.65%EV -0.631%E -0.478%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.13%EV -40.56%E -5.71%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -6.00%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 22:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.26%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.53%0.6%2026-08-09 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.26%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.53%0.6%2026-08-09 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.26%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.53%0.6%2026-08-09 22:25
Matchbook1.27I 78.74%NM 77.87%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.18%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%1.1%2026-08-09 22:25
Kalshi1.27I 78.74%NM 77.39%13.33I 7.50%NM 7.37%6.45I 15.50%NM 15.24%1.7%2026-08-09 22:25
Smarkets1.26I 79.37%NM 77.85%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.33%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.82%1.9%2026-08-09 22:25

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