The School of Odds

Flamengo v Vitoria

2026-08-09 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Flamengo (Local)

Prediction 73.39%1.36fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -3.54%
Kelly -15.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.29%73.33%73.49%74.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3081.97%78.93%78.74%76.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Vitoria (Visit)

Prediction 8.91%11.23fair odd
EV +2.45%
Edge +0.213%
Kelly +0.233%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.26%8.98%8.69%11.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
7.509.8910.0011.5013.33%10.11%10.00%8.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 17.70%5.65fair odd
EV +1.80%
Edge +0.313%
Kelly +0.379%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.53%17.69%17.83%18.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.605.135.005.7521.74%19.50%20.00%17.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Fanatics1.27I 78.74%NM 74.83%EV -6.80%E -5.35%K -25.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -2.01%E -0.183%K -0.201%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV +1.80%E +0.313%K +0.379%G +0.007%5.2%2026-07-27 15:30
SportsBet1.27I 78.74%NM 74.78%EV -6.80%E -5.35%K -25.18%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.26%EV +2.45%E +0.213%K +0.233%G +0.006%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV -0.854%E -0.153%K -0.186%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 15:30
Coolbet1.29I 77.52%NM 73.97%EV -5.33%E -4.13%K -18.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.68%EV -2.01%E -0.183%K -0.201%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.35%EV -2.62%E -0.477%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 15:30
FanDuel1.24I 80.65%NM 74.10%EV -9.00%E -7.26%K -37.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -10.92%E -1.09%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -2.62%E -0.477%K -0.583%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-27 15:29
1xBet1.30I 76.92%NM 73.95%EV -4.60%E -3.54%K -15.32%G +0.000%11.30I 8.85%NM 8.51%EV +0.664%E +0.059%K +0.064%G +0.000%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.54%EV -2.98%E -0.544%K -0.665%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-27 16:45
Bet Right1.27I 78.74%NM 73.05%EV -6.80%E -5.35%K -25.18%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -10.92%E -1.09%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -7.05%E -1.34%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-27 15:30
Marathon Bet1.27I 78.74%NM 73.40%EV -6.80%E -5.35%K -25.18%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.67%EV -4.24%E -0.394%K -0.434%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -7.94%E -1.53%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 16:30
Codere (IT)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.34%EV -6.06%E -4.74%K -21.66%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.85%EV -16.26%E -1.73%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -7.94%E -1.53%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 15:35
LeoVegas1.26I 79.37%NM 72.73%EV -7.53%E -5.98%K -28.97%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -15.37%E -1.62%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.62%EV -7.94%E -1.53%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-27 18:55
888sport1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -5.33%E -4.13%K -18.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -10.92%E -1.09%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -11.48%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-27 17:50
William Hill1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -5.33%E -4.13%K -18.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -10.92%E -1.09%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -11.48%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-27 17:50
Mr Green (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -5.33%E -4.13%K -18.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -10.92%E -1.09%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -11.48%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-27 17:50
888sport (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -5.33%E -4.13%K -18.38%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -10.92%E -1.09%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -11.48%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-27 17:50
Paddy Power1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -10.47%E -8.58%K -47.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -10.92%E -1.09%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -11.48%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-27 15:30
Winamax (DE)1.24I 80.65%NM 71.02%EV -9.00%E -7.26%K -37.50%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.36%EV -30.96%E -3.99%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.61%EV -11.48%E -2.30%K -2.87%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-27 18:50
NordicBet1.29I 77.52%NM 72.58%EV -5.33%E -4.13%K -18.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%EV -2.01%E -0.183%K -0.201%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.91%EV -12.36%E -2.50%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 15:35
Betsson1.29I 77.52%NM 72.58%EV -5.33%E -4.13%K -18.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%EV -2.01%E -0.183%K -0.201%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.91%EV -12.36%E -2.50%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 16:24
Winamax (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 70.41%EV -9.73%E -7.91%K -42.32%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.55%EV -33.19%E -4.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.04%EV -15.02%E -3.13%K -3.95%G +0.000%15.5%2026-07-27 16:50
Unibet (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 70.29%EV -9.00%E -7.26%K -37.50%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 10.76%EV -27.84%E -3.44%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.95%EV -18.56%E -4.03%K -5.16%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-27 18:50
Sky Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 70.54%EV -10.47%E -8.58%K -47.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.76%EV -28.73%E -3.59%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.71%EV -18.56%E -4.03%K -5.16%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-27 15:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.22I 81.97%NM 70.05%7.80I 12.82%NM 10.96%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.99%17.0%2026-07-27 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-27 15:10