The School of Odds

Flamengo v Sao Paulo

2026-07-26 21:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Flamengo (Local)

Prediction 62.42%1.60fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -8.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.18%62.37%62.53%63.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.491.5371%68%67%65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sao Paulo (Visit)

Prediction 14.71%6.80fair odd
EV -0.721%
Edge -0.107%
Kelly -0.125%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.01%14.72%14.72%16.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.006.096.006.7520%16%17%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 22.87%4.37fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.550%
Kelly -0.718%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.24%22.91%22.75%24.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.983.984.2728%25%25%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 62.17%EV -4.49%E -2.94%K -8.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -4.40%E -0.677%K -0.800%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -6.24%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 15:25
1xBet1.52I 65.79%NM 63.03%EV -5.12%E -3.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%6.59I 15.17%NM 14.54%EV -3.07%E -0.467%K -0.550%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.44%EV -2.35%E -0.550%K -0.718%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-17 17:39
NordicBet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.64%EV -5.12%E -3.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -5.87%E -0.917%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.67%E -2.45%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 15:54
Betsson1.52I 65.79%NM 61.64%EV -5.12%E -3.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.64%EV -5.87%E -0.917%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.67%E -2.45%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 15:50
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.32%EV -6.37%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.07%EV -0.721%E -0.107%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%EV -3.95%E -0.940%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 15:04
Bet Right1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -6.37%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -4.40%E -0.677%K -0.800%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -8.52%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 15:04
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -6.37%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -11.75%E -1.96%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -10.81%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 15:04
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -6.37%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -11.75%E -1.96%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -10.81%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 15:04
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -6.37%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -11.75%E -1.96%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -10.81%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 15:04
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -6.37%E -4.24%K -12.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -11.75%E -1.96%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -10.81%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 15:04
SportsBet1.49I 67.11%NM 63.64%EV -6.99%E -4.69%K -14.27%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.05%EV -0.721%E -0.107%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.31%EV -2.80%E -0.660%K -0.863%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 15:04
Codere (IT)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.04%EV -6.99%E -4.69%K -14.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -11.75%E -1.96%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -6.24%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-17 18:49
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 63.29%EV -7.61%E -5.14%K -15.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -4.40%E -0.677%K -0.800%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -3.95%E -0.940%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 15:04
Marathon Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 62.98%EV -7.61%E -5.14%K -15.86%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -5.87%E -0.917%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -5.09%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 17:14
LeoVegas1.47I 68.03%NM 62.04%EV -8.24%E -5.60%K -17.53%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.72%EV -14.69%E -2.53%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%EV -6.24%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-17 18:49
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -4.40%E -0.677%K -0.800%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.52%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-17 15:08
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -11.75%E -1.96%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -8.52%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-17 15:10
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 60.18%EV -10.11%E -7.02%K -22.98%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.75%EV -19.11%E -3.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.07%EV -17.67%E -4.91%K -6.80%G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-17 15:09
Winamax (DE)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.11%EV -10.74%E -7.51%K -24.97%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.49%EV -22.05%E -4.16%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.41%EV -10.81%E -2.77%K -3.73%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-17 18:49
Betclic (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 61.19%EV -11.98%E -8.50%K -29.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.69%EV -19.11%E -3.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.13%EV -14.70%E -3.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-17 18:49
Unibet (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 61.07%EV -11.98%E -8.50%K -29.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.66%EV -19.11%E -3.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.27%EV -15.38%E -4.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-17 18:50
Winamax (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 60.30%EV -12.61%E -9.01%K -31.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.88%EV -26.46%E -5.29%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.82%EV -15.38%E -4.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%18.5%2026-07-17 18:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 60.53%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.55%16.3%2026-07-17 18:49