Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Flamengo v Coritiba

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 19:00 UTC

Final: Flamengo 3–0 Coritiba

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Flamengo (Local)

Prediction 69.80%1.43fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -5.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.41%69.73%69.77%71.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.341.341.4080.00%74.86%74.63%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Coritiba (Visit)

Prediction 11.59%8.63fair odd
EV +4.32%
Edge +0.480%
Kelly +0.540%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.28%11.61%11.49%13.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.917.759.0014.81%12.64%12.90%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.61%5.37fair odd
EV +4.96%
Edge +0.879%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.053%

assuming max odds 5.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.15%18.66%18.74%20.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.995.005.6423.81%20.02%20.00%17.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Flamengo (Local): 69.80%; Coritiba (Visit): 11.59%; Draw: 18.61%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.37. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.65%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%8.64I 11.57%NM 11.20%EV +0.145%E +0.017%K +0.019%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 17.15%EV +4.96%E +0.879%K +1.07%G +0.053%3.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.58%EV -4.37%E -3.19%K -11.82%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.24%EV -0.318%E -0.037%K -0.042%G +0.000%5.32I 18.80%NM 18.18%EV -0.996%E -0.187%K -0.231%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-30 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.49%EV -2.28%E -1.63%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.16%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.35%EV -1.37%E -0.258%K -0.318%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-30 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.49%EV -2.28%E -1.63%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.16%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.35%EV -1.37%E -0.258%K -0.318%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-30 18:50
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%EV -5.07%E -3.73%K -14.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%EV -5.07%E -3.73%K -14.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 18:50
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%EV -5.07%E -3.73%K -14.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 18:51
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.78%EV -6.47%E -4.83%K -19.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Fanatics🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.75%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.48%EV +3.16%E +0.355%K +0.400%G +0.013%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 18:50
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.28%EV -3.68%E -2.66%K -9.68%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.34%EV -10.17%E -1.31%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.39%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-30 18:48
LowVig.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.88%EV -6.47%E -4.83%K -19.03%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.85%EV +1.42%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.27%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.88%EV -6.47%E -4.83%K -19.03%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.85%EV +1.42%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.27%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 18:51
BetAnything🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.88%EV -6.47%E -4.83%K -19.03%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.85%EV +1.42%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.27%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 18:50
BetUS🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.06%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.75%EV -6.69%E -0.831%K -0.949%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-30 18:51
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:51
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:50
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:51
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.96%EV -9.96%E -7.72%K -34.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-30 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.22%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -5.09%E -0.998%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-30 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.54%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.13%EV -5.09%E -0.998%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 18:51
GTbets🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.94%EV -4.37%E -3.19%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.64I 13.09%NM 12.36%EV -11.45%E -1.50%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.70%EV -6.02%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-30 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.70%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.48%EV -4.95%E -0.604%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-30 18:51
Unibet (UK)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.14%EV -6.47%E -4.83%K -19.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 18:51
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 18:50
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +4.32%E +0.480%K +0.540%G +0.023%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-30 18:49
Everygame🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +4.32%E +0.480%K +0.540%G +0.023%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-30 18:50
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-30 18:50
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-30 18:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.86%E -5.96%K -24.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 18:50
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.86%E -5.96%K -24.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.15%EV -7.86%E -5.96%K -24.58%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.59%EV -15.97%E -2.20%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -7.86%E -5.96%K -24.58%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV +2.00%E +0.227%K +0.256%G +0.005%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -7.88%E -1.59%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 18:50
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -7.86%E -5.96%K -24.58%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV +2.00%E +0.227%K +0.256%G +0.005%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -7.88%E -1.59%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 18:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.51%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -8.81%E -1.80%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-30 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.51%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -8.81%E -1.80%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-30 18:50
Coolbet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.99%EV -4.37%E -3.19%K -11.82%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.53%EV -4.95%E -0.604%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.49%EV -9.74%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 18:50
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.17%EV -9.74%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 18:50
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -10.67%E -2.22%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-30 18:51
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -10.67%E -2.22%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -10.67%E -2.22%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-30 18:51
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -10.67%E -2.22%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.14%EV -5.07%E -3.73%K -14.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -11.60%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-30 18:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -4.37%E -3.19%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.60%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 18:51
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -11.60%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-30 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.45%EV -12.75%E -10.20%K -51.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.01%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.54%EV -11.60%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.23%EV -9.96%E -7.72%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.04%EV -21.76%E -3.22%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.73%EV -12.53%E -2.67%K -3.39%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -4.37%E -3.19%K -11.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -14.40%E -3.13%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 18:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.14%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.87%EV -10.17%E -1.31%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -14.40%E -3.13%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-30 18:50
Sky Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.85%EV -9.96%E -7.72%K -34.34%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -14.40%E -3.13%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.74%EV -9.96%E -7.72%K -34.34%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.98%EV -14.23%E -1.92%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.28%EV -14.40%E -3.13%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-30 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 68.09%EV -8.56%E -6.54%K -27.62%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.30%EV -15.97%E -2.20%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.60%EV -15.33%E -3.37%K -4.32%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-30 18:37
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -5.07%E -3.73%K -14.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -16.26%E -3.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.10%EV -9.96%E -7.72%K -34.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.98%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.92%EV -21.84%E -5.20%K -6.82%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-30 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.39I 71.94%NM 71.99%10.00I 10.00%NM 10.01%5.56I 17.99%NM 18.00%-0.1%2026-05-30 18:51
Matchbook1.37I 72.99%NM 72.72%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.49%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.79%0.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.60%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%0.5%2026-05-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.75%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.89%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.36%1.1%2026-05-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.75%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.89%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.36%1.1%2026-05-30 18:50
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.52%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.4%2026-05-30 18:51