La escuela de los momios

Flamengo v Coritiba

Inicio: 2026-05-30 19:00 UTC

Final: Flamengo 3–0 Coritiba

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Flamengo (Local)

Predicción 69.80%1.43momio equitativo
EV -2.28%
Ventaja -1.63%
Kelly -5.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.41%69.73%69.77%71.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.251.341.341.4080.00%74.86%74.63%71.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Coritiba (Visitante)

Predicción 11.59%8.63momio equitativo
EV +4.32%
Ventaja +0.480%
Kelly +0.540%
Crecimiento +0.023%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.28%11.61%11.49%13.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.757.917.759.0014.81%12.64%12.90%11.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 18.61%5.37momio equitativo
EV +4.96%
Ventaja +0.879%
Kelly +1.07%
Crecimiento +0.053%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.15%18.66%18.74%20.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.204.995.005.6423.81%20.02%20.00%17.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet1.35I 74.07%NM 71.65%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%8.64I 11.57%NM 11.20%EV +0.145%E +0.017%K +0.019%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 17.15%EV +4.96%E +0.879%K +1.07%G +0.053%3.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Pinnacle1.37I 72.99%NM 70.58%EV -4.37%E -3.19%K -11.82%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.24%EV -0.318%E -0.037%K -0.042%G +0.000%5.32I 18.80%NM 18.18%EV -0.996%E -0.187%K -0.231%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-30 18:50
ATG (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 69.49%EV -2.28%E -1.63%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.16%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.35%EV -1.37%E -0.258%K -0.318%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-30 18:50
Svenska Spel1.40I 71.43%NM 69.49%EV -2.28%E -1.63%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.16%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.35%EV -1.37%E -0.258%K -0.318%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-30 18:50
Coral1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%EV -5.07%E -3.73%K -14.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%EV -5.07%E -3.73%K -14.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 18:50
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 69.98%EV -5.07%E -3.73%K -14.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 18:51
DraftKings1.34I 74.63%NM 70.78%EV -6.47%E -4.83%K -19.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Fanatics1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Marathon Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 71.75%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.48%EV +3.16%E +0.355%K +0.400%G +0.013%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -2.30%E -0.438%K -0.541%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 18:50
Bovada1.38I 72.46%NM 69.28%EV -3.68%E -2.66%K -9.68%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.34%EV -10.17%E -1.31%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.39%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-30 18:48
LowVig.ag1.34I 74.63%NM 70.88%EV -6.47%E -4.83%K -19.03%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.85%EV +1.42%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.27%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 18:50
BetOnline.ag1.34I 74.63%NM 70.88%EV -6.47%E -4.83%K -19.03%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.85%EV +1.42%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.27%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 18:51
BetAnything1.34I 74.63%NM 70.88%EV -6.47%E -4.83%K -19.03%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.85%EV +1.42%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.27%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 18:50
BetUS1.35I 74.07%NM 70.06%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.75%EV -6.69%E -0.831%K -0.949%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-30 18:51
Grosvenor1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:51
Unibet (NL)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Unibet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Casumo1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Unibet (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:50
betPARX1.35I 74.07%NM 69.46%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 18:51
FanDuel1.29I 77.52%NM 70.96%EV -9.96%E -7.72%K -34.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -3.23%E -0.621%K -0.769%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-30 18:50
BetRivers1.35I 74.07%NM 69.22%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -5.09%E -0.998%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-30 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.54%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.13%EV -5.09%E -0.998%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 18:51
GTbets1.37I 72.99%NM 68.94%EV -4.37%E -3.19%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.64I 13.09%NM 12.36%EV -11.45%E -1.50%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.70%EV -6.02%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-30 18:50
Codere (IT)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.70%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.48%EV -4.95%E -0.604%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-30 18:51
Unibet (UK)1.34I 74.63%NM 70.14%EV -6.47%E -4.83%K -19.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Neds1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 18:51
Ladbrokes (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 18:50
SportsBet1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +4.32%E +0.480%K +0.540%G +0.023%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-30 18:49
Everygame1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV +4.32%E +0.480%K +0.540%G +0.023%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-30 18:50
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-30 18:50
Betway1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-30 18:39
PMU (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.86%E -5.96%K -24.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 18:50
TABtouch1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.86%E -5.96%K -24.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 18:50
Winamax (DE)1.32I 75.76%NM 69.15%EV -7.86%E -5.96%K -24.58%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.59%EV -15.97%E -2.20%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -6.95%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Betsson1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -7.86%E -5.96%K -24.58%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV +2.00%E +0.227%K +0.256%G +0.005%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -7.88%E -1.59%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 18:50
NordicBet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.59%EV -7.86%E -5.96%K -24.58%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV +2.00%E +0.227%K +0.256%G +0.005%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.82%EV -7.88%E -1.59%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-30 18:50
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.51%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -8.81%E -1.80%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-30 18:50
LiveScore Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.51%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -8.81%E -1.80%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-30 18:50
Coolbet1.37I 72.99%NM 68.99%EV -4.37%E -3.19%K -11.82%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.53%EV -4.95%E -0.604%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.49%EV -9.74%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 18:50
PlayUp1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.17%EV -9.74%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 18:50
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -10.67%E -2.22%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-30 18:51
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -10.67%E -2.22%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -10.67%E -2.22%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-30 18:51
William Hill1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -7.17%E -5.39%K -21.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -10.67%E -2.22%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 69.14%EV -5.07%E -3.73%K -14.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -11.60%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-30 18:29
PointsBet (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -4.37%E -3.19%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -11.60%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 18:51
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -9.26%E -7.12%K -30.87%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -11.60%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-30 18:50
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 70.45%EV -12.75%E -10.20%K -51.00%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.01%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.54%EV -11.60%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Winamax (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 68.23%EV -9.96%E -7.72%K -34.34%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.04%EV -21.76%E -3.22%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.73%EV -12.53%E -2.67%K -3.39%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Bet Right1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -4.37%E -3.19%K -11.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -14.40%E -3.13%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 18:30
Betr (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.14%EV -5.77%E -4.27%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.87%EV -10.17%E -1.31%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -14.40%E -3.13%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-30 18:50
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 68.85%EV -9.96%E -7.72%K -34.34%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -14.40%E -3.13%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-30 18:50
Unibet (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 68.74%EV -9.96%E -7.72%K -34.34%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.98%EV -14.23%E -1.92%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.28%EV -14.40%E -3.13%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-30 18:50
Betclic (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 68.09%EV -8.56%E -6.54%K -27.62%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.30%EV -15.97%E -2.20%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.60%EV -15.33%E -3.37%K -4.32%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-30 18:37
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -5.07%E -3.73%K -14.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -16.26%E -3.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.29I 77.52%NM 68.10%EV -9.96%E -7.72%K -34.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.98%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.92%EV -21.84%E -5.20%K -6.82%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-30 18:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.39I 71.94%NM 71.99%10.00I 10.00%NM 10.01%5.56I 17.99%NM 18.00%-0.1%2026-05-30 18:51
Matchbook1.37I 72.99%NM 72.72%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.49%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.79%0.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.60%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%0.5%2026-05-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.75%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.89%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.36%1.1%2026-05-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.75%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.89%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.36%1.1%2026-05-30 18:50
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.52%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.4%2026-05-30 18:51