The School of Odds
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Cruzeiro v Flamengo

2026-08-22 23:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruzeiro (Local)

Prediction 32.30%3.10fair odd
EV +1.75%
Edge +0.555%
Kelly +0.813%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.48%32.17%32.36%33.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.892.903.1537.74%34.54%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Flamengo (Visit)

Prediction 39.04%2.56fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.800%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.15%38.99%39.02%40.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.332.302.5145.87%43.01%43.48%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.66%3.49fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.753%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.79%28.84%28.62%30.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.203.4033.33%31.53%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cruzeiro (Local): 32.30%; Flamengo (Visit): 39.04%; Draw: 28.66%. For Cruzeiro (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.15, producing a positive expected value of +1.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.48%EV +1.75%E +0.555%K +0.813%G +0.014%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.86%EV -8.25%E -3.51%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.66%EV -3.99%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-10 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.48%EV +1.75%E +0.555%K +0.813%G +0.014%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.86%EV -8.25%E -3.51%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.66%EV -3.99%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-10 19:10
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -1.48%E -0.486%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-10 19:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -1.48%E -0.486%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-10 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -1.48%E -0.486%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-10 19:09
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -1.48%E -0.486%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-10 19:10
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -1.48%E -0.486%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-10 19:09
betPARX🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -1.48%E -0.486%K -0.723%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-10 19:10
1xBet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -4.39%E -1.48%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.23%EV -2.01%E -0.800%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.35%EV -6.29%E -1.92%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-10 17:20
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -4.71%E -1.60%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -6.30%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -5.43%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-10 17:15
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -4.71%E -1.60%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -12.16%E -5.40%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -9.73%E -3.09%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-10 19:10
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -4.71%E -1.60%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -12.16%E -5.40%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -9.73%E -3.09%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-10 19:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.54%EV -4.71%E -1.60%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.40%EV -12.94%E -5.80%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.06%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-10 19:10
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.85%EV -5.68%E -1.95%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.08%EV -7.08%E -2.98%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -8.29%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-10 18:14
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.85%EV -5.68%E -1.95%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.08%EV -7.08%E -2.98%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -8.29%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-10 18:15
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -6.33%E -2.18%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.98%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -2.56%E -0.753%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-10 17:20
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -6.33%E -2.18%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.30%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.43%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-10 17:18
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -6.33%E -2.18%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.30%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.43%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-10 17:34
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -6.97%E -2.42%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -7.08%E -2.98%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -8.29%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-10 17:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.74%EV -6.97%E -2.42%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.24%EV -14.11%E -6.41%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.02%EV -12.59%E -4.13%K -6.14%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-10 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.74%EV -6.97%E -2.42%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.24%EV -14.11%E -6.41%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.02%EV -12.59%E -4.13%K -6.14%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-10 19:09
PMU (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.74%EV -6.97%E -2.42%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.24%EV -14.11%E -6.41%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.02%EV -12.59%E -4.13%K -6.14%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-10 19:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.47%EV -7.94%E -2.79%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.05%EV -7.47%E -3.15%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -6.86%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-10 17:20
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -9.56%E -3.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.86%EV -6.30%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -3.99%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-10 17:25
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.56%E -3.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -14.02%E -4.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-10 17:20
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.56%E -3.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -14.02%E -4.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-10 17:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.56%E -3.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -14.02%E -4.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-10 17:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.56%E -3.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -14.02%E -4.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-10 17:19
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.56%E -3.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-10 17:20
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.56%E -3.41%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-10 17:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.42%EV -12.79%E -4.74%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.79%EV -14.11%E -6.41%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -9.73%E -3.09%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-10 17:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -12.79%E -4.74%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -12.16%E -5.40%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -14.02%E -4.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-10 17:20
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -12.79%E -4.74%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -12.16%E -5.40%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -14.02%E -4.67%K -7.01%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-10 17:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.92%EV -12.79%E -4.74%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 39.54%EV -14.89%E -6.83%K -12.62%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 28.54%EV -13.45%E -4.45%K -6.66%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-10 17:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.69%EV -14.40%E -5.44%K -8.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.37%EV -14.11%E -6.41%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.94%EV -11.16%E -3.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-10 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 31.90%2.22I 45.05%NM 38.80%2.94I 34.01%NM 29.30%16.1%2026-08-10 19:10

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