The School of Odds

Cruzeiro v Botafogo

2026-07-26 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cruzeiro (Local)

Prediction 50.63%1.98fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -4.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.19%50.55%50.65%51.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.811.831.9060%55%55%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Botafogo (Visit)

Prediction 22.65%4.41fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -0.497%
Kelly -0.646%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%22.69%22.61%23.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.994.004.3228%25%25%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.72%3.74fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.60%26.76%26.74%27.71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.423.423.6031%29%29%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -3.80%E -2.00%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -3.82%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 15:15
1xBet1.88I 53.19%NM 51.01%EV -4.81%E -2.56%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.20%EV -2.15%E -0.497%K -0.646%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.79%EV -4.36%E -1.22%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 20:09
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -5.32%E -2.84%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -7.13%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -3.82%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 15:14
Fanatics1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -5.32%E -2.84%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.13%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 15:29
Bet Right1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -5.32%E -2.84%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -10.53%E -2.66%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 15:15
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -6.33%E -3.42%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-17 17:59
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -6.33%E -3.42%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-17 18:00
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -6.33%E -3.42%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-17 17:59
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -6.33%E -3.42%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-17 17:59
Marathon Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.98%EV -7.34%E -4.01%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -4.86%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.81%EV -7.03%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 20:04
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -7.34%E -4.01%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -7.13%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-17 15:19
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.34%E -4.01%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-17 15:19
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.13%EV -7.85%E -4.31%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -3.73%E -0.878%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -7.83%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-17 15:49
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 51.13%EV -7.85%E -4.31%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -3.73%E -0.878%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -7.83%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-17 15:50
Codere (IT)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.39%EV -8.86%E -4.92%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -7.13%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -5.16%E -1.45%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-17 15:19
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -8.86%E -4.92%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.39%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -6.49%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-17 19:39
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 49.92%EV -8.86%E -4.92%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -13.92%E -3.66%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-17 15:18
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 49.19%EV -11.39%E -6.51%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%EV -18.45%E -5.13%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.90%EV -14.51%E -4.53%K -6.59%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-17 15:19
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 51.19%EV -13.92%E -8.19%K -19.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.21%EV -15.06%E -4.02%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.82%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-17 15:14
Unibet (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 51.10%EV -14.43%E -8.54%K -20.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.73%EV -13.92%E -3.66%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.17%EV -11.84%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-17 15:14
Betclic (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 51.26%EV -14.94%E -8.89%K -21.97%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.48%EV -13.24%E -3.46%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.26%EV -12.37%E -3.77%K -5.43%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-17 15:14
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 50.71%EV -15.95%E -9.61%K -24.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.38%EV -18.45%E -5.13%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.90%EV -13.17%E -4.05%K -5.85%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-17 15:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 50.39%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.84%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.77%16.7%2026-07-17 19:04