Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.80
assuming max odds 5.10
assuming max odds 3.99
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cruzeiro (Local): 55.07%; Atletico Paranaense (Visit): 19.99%; Draw: 24.94%. For Atletico Paranaense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.00. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.97%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.83%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.72%EV +1.97%E +0.386%K +0.481%G +0.009% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-06 18:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.42%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 5.02I 19.92%NM 19.22%EV +0.371%E +0.074%K +0.092%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.36%EV -1.24%E -0.313%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 18:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.42%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 5.02I 19.92%NM 19.22%EV +0.371%E +0.074%K +0.092%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.36%EV -1.24%E -0.313%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 18:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.42%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 5.02I 19.92%NM 19.22%EV +0.371%E +0.074%K +0.092%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.36%EV -1.24%E -0.313%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 18:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.31%EV -9.14%E -5.54%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -0.029%E -0.006%K -0.007%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-06 18:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.49%EV -4.18%E -2.41%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.43%EV -0.629%E -0.127%K -0.158%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.08%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-06 18:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.17%EV -1.03%E -0.208%K -0.261%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 18:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.70%EV -10.79%E -6.66%K -17.41%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -4.03%E -0.839%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-06 18:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.25%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 18:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 18:13 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -8.04%E -4.81%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 18:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-06 18:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.98%EV -9.14%E -5.54%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-06 18:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.98%EV -9.14%E -5.54%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-06 18:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -0.881%E -0.489%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.49%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.02%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-06 18:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -0.881%E -0.489%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.49%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.02%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-06 18:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.99%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 18:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.13%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 18:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.10%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 18:33 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.10%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 18:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.93%EV -4.18%E -2.41%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 4.69I 21.32%NM 20.38%EV -6.23%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.70%EV -3.48%E -0.900%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.52%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.80%EV -7.03%E -1.51%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -13.96%E -4.05%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-06 18:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.52%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.80%EV -7.03%E -1.51%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -13.96%E -4.05%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-06 18:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.77%EV -2.53%E -1.43%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.63I 21.60%NM 20.94%EV -7.43%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.30%EV -0.490%E -0.123%K -0.164%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.86%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 18:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.81%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.20%EV -6.94%E -4.11%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.50%EV -9.03%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -4.23%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 18:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 18:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 18:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 18:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 18:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 18:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.45%EV -10.79%E -6.66%K -17.41%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.60%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -15.20%E -4.47%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-06 18:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -9.14%E -5.54%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.27%EV -11.03%E -2.48%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-06 18:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -8.04%E -4.81%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -13.43%E -3.10%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 18:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.38%EV -4.18%E -2.41%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.20%EV -14.03%E -3.26%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.42%EV -13.96%E -4.05%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-06 18:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.53%EV -4.74%E -2.74%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -14.03%E -3.26%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -13.96%E -4.05%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.68%EV -8.59%E -5.17%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -14.03%E -3.26%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-06 18:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.36%EV -10.79%E -6.66%K -17.41%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48%EV -14.03%E -3.26%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-09-06 18:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.73%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -15.02%E -3.54%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.43%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 18:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -2.53%E -1.43%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -15.02%E -3.54%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -3.63%E -2.08%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -15.02%E -3.54%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 18:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.34%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.18%EV -15.02%E -3.54%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -15.20%E -4.47%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-06 18:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.34%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.18%EV -15.02%E -3.54%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -15.20%E -4.47%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-06 18:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -4.74%E -2.74%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -16.02%E -3.82%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.35%EV -9.69%E -5.91%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -16.02%E -3.82%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.42%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-06 18:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.59%EV -7.49%E -4.46%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.04%EV -16.02%E -3.82%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -16.45%E -4.91%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.59%EV -7.49%E -4.46%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.04%EV -16.02%E -3.82%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -16.45%E -4.91%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-06 18:25 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.99% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.46% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.55% | 0.3% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.13% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.40% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47% | 0.7% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.11% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15% | 0.7% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.11% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15% | 0.7% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.89% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.56% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.55% | 1.7% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19% | 3.1% | 2026-09-06 18:35 |