Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cruzeiro v Atletico Paranaense

Início: 2026-09-06 19:00 UTC

Final: Cruzeiro 3–1 Atletico Paranaense

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

54 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cruzeiro (Local)

Previsão 55.07%1.82odd justa
EV -0.881%
Vantagem -0.489%
Kelly -1.10%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
52.34%54.87%55.18%56.70%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.621.711.711.8061.73%58.48%58.48%55.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atletico Paranaense (Visitante)

Previsão 19.99%5.00odd justa
EV +1.97%
Vantagem +0.386%
Kelly +0.481%
Crescimento +0.009%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
18.58%20.06%19.94%21.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.204.594.605.1023.81%21.81%21.74%19.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 24.94%4.01odd justa
EV -0.490%
Vantagem -0.123%
Kelly -0.164%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.99

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.17%25.07%24.89%26.68%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.353.643.603.9929.85%27.47%27.78%25.06%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Cruzeiro (Local): 55.07%; Atletico Paranaense (Visitante): 19.99%; Empate: 24.94%. Para Atletico Paranaense (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.00. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.10, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.97%.

Odds das casas de apostas (54 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.83%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.72%EV +1.97%E +0.386%K +0.481%G +0.009%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.42%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.22%EV +0.371%E +0.074%K +0.092%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.36%EV -1.24%E -0.313%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-06 18:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.42%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.22%EV +0.371%E +0.074%K +0.092%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.36%EV -1.24%E -0.313%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-06 18:10
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.42%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 19.22%EV +0.371%E +0.074%K +0.092%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.36%EV -1.24%E -0.313%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-06 18:10
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.31%EV -9.14%E -5.54%K -14.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -0.029%E -0.006%K -0.007%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 18:35
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.49%EV -4.18%E -2.41%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.97I 20.12%NM 19.43%EV -0.629%E -0.127%K -0.158%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.08%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-06 18:45
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.17%EV -1.03%E -0.208%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.70%EV -10.79%E -6.66%K -17.41%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -4.03%E -0.839%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 18:30
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.25%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 18:25
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 18:54
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 18:13
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -8.04%E -4.81%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 18:34
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-06 18:29
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.98%EV -9.14%E -5.54%K -14.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.98%EV -9.14%E -5.54%K -14.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 18:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -0.881%E -0.489%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.49%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.02%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 18:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -0.881%E -0.489%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.49%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.02%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 18:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.99%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 18:35
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.13%EV -5.84%E -3.41%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 18:30
Bovada🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.10%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 18:33
BetUS🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.10%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 18:35
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.93%EV -4.18%E -2.41%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.38%EV -6.23%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.70%EV -3.48%E -0.900%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 18:50
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.52%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.80%EV -7.03%E -1.51%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -13.96%E -4.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 18:10
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.52%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.80%EV -7.03%E -1.51%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -13.96%E -4.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 18:09
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.77%EV -2.53%E -1.43%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.94%EV -7.43%E -1.60%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.30%EV -0.490%E -0.123%K -0.164%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-06 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.86%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 18:34
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.81%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 18:50
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 18:50
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.39%E -3.76%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.20%EV -6.94%E -4.11%K -10.06%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.50%EV -9.03%E -1.98%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -4.23%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 18:55
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 18:19
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 18:20
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 18:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 18:20
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 18:20
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.45%EV -10.79%E -6.66%K -17.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.60%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -15.20%E -4.47%K -6.34%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 18:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -9.14%E -5.54%K -14.06%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.27%EV -11.03%E -2.48%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 18:34
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -8.04%E -4.81%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -13.43%E -3.10%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 18:14
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.38%EV -4.18%E -2.41%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.20%EV -14.03%E -3.26%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.42%EV -13.96%E -4.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 18:20
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.53%EV -4.74%E -2.74%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -14.03%E -3.26%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -13.96%E -4.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.68%EV -8.59%E -5.17%K -13.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -14.03%E -3.26%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 18:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.36%EV -10.79%E -6.66%K -17.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48%EV -14.03%E -3.26%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-06 18:35
Bet Right🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.73%EV -3.08%E -1.75%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -15.02%E -3.54%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.43%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 18:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -2.53%E -1.43%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -15.02%E -3.54%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -3.63%E -2.08%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -15.02%E -3.54%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.34%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.18%EV -15.02%E -3.54%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -15.20%E -4.47%K -6.34%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.34%EV -5.29%E -3.07%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.18%EV -15.02%E -3.54%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -15.20%E -4.47%K -6.34%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 18:19
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -4.74%E -2.74%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -16.02%E -3.82%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.35%EV -9.69%E -5.91%K -15.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -16.02%E -3.82%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.42%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-06 18:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.59%EV -7.49%E -4.46%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.04%EV -16.02%E -3.82%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -16.45%E -4.91%K -7.00%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-06 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.59%EV -7.49%E -4.46%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.04%EV -16.02%E -3.82%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -16.45%E -4.91%K -7.00%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-06 18:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.99%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.46%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.55%0.3%2026-09-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.13%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.40%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%0.7%2026-09-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.11%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-09-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.11%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-09-06 18:55
Smarkets◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.89%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.56%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.55%1.7%2026-09-06 18:55
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.40%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19%3.1%2026-09-06 18:35