Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coritiba v Chapecoense

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 23:30 UTC

Final: Coritiba 2–1 Chapecoense

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coritiba (Local)

Prediction 56.85%1.76fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -3.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.75%56.77%56.88%58.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.621.7164.52%61.30%61.73%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chapecoense (Visit)

Prediction 17.60%5.68fair odd
EV +4.71%
Edge +0.792%
Kelly +0.952%
Growth +0.045%

assuming max odds 5.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.25%17.55%17.61%19.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.325.255.9520.83%18.79%19.05%16.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.55%3.91fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.427%
Kelly -0.576%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.82%25.68%25.50%27.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.283.633.653.8530.49%27.56%27.40%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Coritiba (Local): 56.85%; Chapecoense (Visit): 17.60%; Draw: 25.55%. For Chapecoense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.68. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.90%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.25%EV +4.71%E +0.792%K +0.952%G +0.045%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.85%EV -4.45%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 23:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.90%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.25%EV +4.71%E +0.792%K +0.952%G +0.045%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.85%EV -4.45%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 23:04
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.90%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.25%EV +4.71%E +0.792%K +0.952%G +0.045%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.85%EV -4.45%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 23:04
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.75%EV -3.35%E -1.97%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.92I 16.89%NM 16.30%EV +4.19%E +0.707%K +0.851%G +0.036%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.95%EV -8.54%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-08 23:15
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.68%EV -2.78%E -1.63%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 16.40%EV +4.01%E +0.679%K +0.817%G +0.033%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-08 23:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.08%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.72%EV +2.07%E +0.358%K +0.432%G +0.009%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19%EV -1.64%E -0.427%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-08 23:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.08%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.72%EV +2.07%E +0.358%K +0.432%G +0.009%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19%EV -1.64%E -0.427%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-08 23:25
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.48%EV -5.62%E -3.39%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.74%EV +0.315%E +0.055%K +0.067%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 23:09
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.87%EV -1.45%E -0.258%K -0.314%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 23:19
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.90%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -1.45%E -0.258%K -0.314%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 23:08
Coolbet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.32%EV -5.62%E -3.39%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -4.20%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 06:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.28%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 15:20
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 23:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 22:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 14:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.45%EV -4.97%E -0.919%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.21%EV -5.62%E -3.39%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -4.97%E -0.919%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.07%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 23:15
GTbets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.65%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 17.21%EV -5.67%E -1.06%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.14%EV -6.24%E -1.70%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 15:25
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -2.92%E -0.768%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 20:35
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -2.92%E -0.768%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 17:15
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.71%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.04%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -4.20%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 21:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -4.20%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 22:14
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.32%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 22:19
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 23:08
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 23:04
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 22:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 12:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 22:04
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.86%EV -6.76%E -4.12%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -8.48%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 22:19
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.07%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%EV -8.48%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 23:00
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.87%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -8.48%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -9.31%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 23:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.65%EV -11.88%E -7.66%K -21.59%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.18%EV -8.48%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.17%EV -9.31%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.75%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.54%EV -16.20%E -4.94%K -7.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 23:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -10.74%E -6.84%K -18.84%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.59%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -9.31%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 22:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.88%EV -11.31%E -7.25%K -20.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.40%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.72%EV -11.86%E -3.44%K -4.84%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 23:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.88%EV -11.31%E -7.25%K -20.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.40%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.72%EV -11.86%E -3.44%K -4.84%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 23:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.87%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 15:19
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 22:24
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 14:34
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -8.47%E -5.26%K -13.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 14:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -8.47%E -5.26%K -13.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -8.47%E -5.26%K -13.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 14:35
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 23:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 23:19
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.87%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.14%E -3.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 23:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.89%EV -11.31%E -7.25%K -20.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.75%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 23:25
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -4.49%E -2.67%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -12.88%E -2.60%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 23:05
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -4.49%E -2.67%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -12.88%E -2.60%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 23:15
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -4.49%E -2.67%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.04%EV -14.64%E -3.02%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -9.31%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.56%EV -10.17%E -6.44%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -15.52%E -3.23%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 15:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.55%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%0.4%2026-08-08 23:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.55%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%0.4%2026-08-08 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.55%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%0.4%2026-08-08 23:25
Matchbook1.74I 57.47%NM 57.21%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.5%2026-08-08 23:25
Smarkets1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.1%2026-08-08 23:25
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.50%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.69%1.1%2026-08-08 23:25

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