The School of Odds

Coritiba v Chapecoense

2026-08-08 23:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Coritiba (Local)

Prediction 61.43%1.63fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -7.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.80%61.50%61.40%62.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.441.501.521.5669.44%66.67%65.79%64.10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Chapecoense (Visit)

Prediction 15.02%6.66fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.362%
Kelly -0.427%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.33%15.05%14.87%16.57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.255.976.006.5019.05%16.76%16.67%15.38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.55%4.25fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -0.840%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.72%23.45%23.73%24.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.893.904.1027.78%25.74%25.64%24.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.43%EV -4.17%E -2.68%K -7.46%G +0.000%6.48I 15.43%NM 14.79%EV -2.65%E -0.409%K -0.484%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.78%EV -5.09%E -1.26%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-27 20:05
Coolbet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.50%EV -4.79%E -3.09%K -8.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.67%EV -2.35%E -0.362%K -0.427%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-27 14:15
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -4.79%E -3.09%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -11.36%E -1.93%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -6.97%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 20:30
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.42%EV -4.79%E -3.09%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.87%EV -11.36%E -1.93%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -6.97%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-27 20:30
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52%NM 58.80%EV -4.79%E -3.09%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -17.37%E -3.16%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-27 14:20
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.02%E -3.93%K -11.35%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -9.86%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 14:30
SportsBet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.32%EV -6.63%E -4.36%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV -2.35%E -0.362%K -0.427%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-27 14:15
Marathon Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.39%EV -6.63%E -4.36%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.81%EV -5.36%E -0.850%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.80%EV -7.68%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-27 20:05
Bet Right1.52I 65.79%NM 60.86%EV -6.63%E -4.36%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -9.86%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-27 14:15
Codere (IT)1.51I 66.23%NM 61.32%EV -7.25%E -4.80%K -14.21%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.93%EV -6.86%E -1.11%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.74%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-27 14:15
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.95%EV -9.09%E -6.14%K -18.94%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -2.35%E -0.362%K -0.427%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-27 14:15
Winamax (DE)1.45I 68.97%NM 60.78%EV -10.93%E -7.54%K -24.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.02%EV -17.37%E -3.16%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.19%EV -10.51%E -2.77%K -3.75%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-27 16:50
Unibet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 60.18%EV -10.93%E -7.54%K -24.29%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.58%EV -15.87%E -2.83%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -15.22%E -4.23%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-27 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 62.14%EV -11.55%E -8.02%K -26.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -9.86%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-27 14:20
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 61.77%EV -11.55%E -8.02%K -26.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -9.86%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -10.51%E -2.77%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-27 14:14
Winamax (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 60.21%EV -11.55%E -8.02%K -26.24%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.36%EV -20.38%E -3.84%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.43%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%15.3%2026-07-27 16:50
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 59.73%EV -11.55%E -8.02%K -26.24%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.38%EV -21.13%E -4.02%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.89%EV -15.22%E -4.23%K -5.85%G +0.000%16.3%2026-07-27 14:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.