Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Coritiba v Chapecoense

Inicio: 2026-08-08 23:30 UTC

Final: Coritiba 2–1 Chapecoense

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Coritiba (Local)

Predicción 56.85%1.76momio equitativo
EV -2.78%
Ventaja -1.63%
Kelly -3.92%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.75%56.77%56.88%58.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.551.631.621.7164.52%61.30%61.73%58.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Chapecoense (Visitante)

Predicción 17.60%5.68momio equitativo
EV +4.71%
Ventaja +0.792%
Kelly +0.952%
Crecimiento +0.045%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.25%17.55%17.61%19.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.805.325.255.9520.83%18.79%19.05%16.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.55%3.91momio equitativo
EV -1.64%
Ventaja -0.427%
Kelly -0.576%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.82%25.68%25.50%27.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.283.633.653.8530.49%27.56%27.40%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Coritiba (Local): 56.85%; Chapecoense (Visitante): 17.60%; Empate: 25.55%. Para Chapecoense (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.68. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.95, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.71%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.90%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.25%EV +4.71%E +0.792%K +0.952%G +0.045%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.85%EV -4.45%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 23:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.90%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.25%EV +4.71%E +0.792%K +0.952%G +0.045%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.85%EV -4.45%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 23:04
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.90%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.25%EV +4.71%E +0.792%K +0.952%G +0.045%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.85%EV -4.45%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 23:04
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.75%EV -3.35%E -1.97%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.92I 16.89%NM 16.30%EV +4.19%E +0.707%K +0.851%G +0.036%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.95%EV -8.54%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-08 23:15
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.68%EV -2.78%E -1.63%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 16.40%EV +4.01%E +0.679%K +0.817%G +0.033%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-08 23:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.08%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.72%EV +2.07%E +0.358%K +0.432%G +0.009%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19%EV -1.64%E -0.427%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-08 23:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.08%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.72%EV +2.07%E +0.358%K +0.432%G +0.009%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19%EV -1.64%E -0.427%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-08 23:25
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.48%EV -5.62%E -3.39%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.74%EV +0.315%E +0.055%K +0.067%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 23:09
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.87%EV -1.45%E -0.258%K -0.314%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 23:19
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.90%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -1.45%E -0.258%K -0.314%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 23:08
Coolbet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.32%EV -5.62%E -3.39%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -4.20%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 06:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.28%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 15:20
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 23:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 23:25
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 22:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -3.21%E -0.583%K -0.712%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 14:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.45%EV -4.97%E -0.919%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.21%EV -5.62%E -3.39%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -4.97%E -0.919%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.07%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 23:15
GTbets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.65%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 17.21%EV -5.67%E -1.06%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.14%EV -6.24%E -1.70%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 15:25
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -2.92%E -0.768%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 20:35
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -2.92%E -0.768%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 17:15
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.71%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.04%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -4.20%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 21:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -4.20%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 22:14
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.32%EV -5.05%E -3.03%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 22:19
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 23:08
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 23:04
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 22:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 12:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -7.60%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 22:04
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.86%EV -6.76%E -4.12%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -8.48%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 22:19
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.07%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%EV -8.48%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 23:00
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.87%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -8.48%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -9.31%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 23:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.65%EV -11.88%E -7.66%K -21.59%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.18%EV -8.48%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.17%EV -9.31%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.75%EV -6.19%E -3.75%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.54%EV -16.20%E -4.94%K -7.11%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 23:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -10.74%E -6.84%K -18.84%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.59%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -9.31%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 22:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.88%EV -11.31%E -7.25%K -20.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.40%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.72%EV -11.86%E -3.44%K -4.84%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 23:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.88%EV -11.31%E -7.25%K -20.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.40%EV -10.24%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.72%EV -11.86%E -3.44%K -4.84%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 23:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.87%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -6.75%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 15:19
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 22:24
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -7.90%E -4.87%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-08 14:34
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -8.47%E -5.26%K -13.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 14:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -8.47%E -5.26%K -13.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -8.47%E -5.26%K -13.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 14:35
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 23:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.27%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 23:19
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -9.03%E -5.65%K -15.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.87%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -13.14%E -3.86%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 23:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.89%EV -11.31%E -7.25%K -20.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.75%EV -12.00%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -10.58%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 23:25
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -4.49%E -2.67%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -12.88%E -2.60%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 23:05
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -4.49%E -2.67%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -12.88%E -2.60%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.47%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 23:15
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -4.49%E -2.67%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.04%EV -14.64%E -3.02%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -9.31%E -2.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.56%EV -10.17%E -6.44%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -15.52%E -3.23%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -8.03%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 15:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.55%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%0.4%2026-08-08 23:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.55%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%0.4%2026-08-08 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 57.55%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%0.4%2026-08-08 23:25
Matchbook◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.21%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.5%2026-08-08 23:25
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.77%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.1%2026-08-08 23:25
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.50%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.69%1.1%2026-08-08 23:25