Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Corinthians v Palmeiras

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 21:32 UTC

Final: Corinthians 0–0 Palmeiras

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Corinthians (Local)

Prediction 34.72%2.88fair odd
EV +2.42%
Edge +0.819%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.52%34.62%34.81%35.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.702.9540.00%36.78%37.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palmeiras (Visit)

Prediction 33.26%3.01fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.59%33.36%33.19%34.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.772.802.9140.00%36.06%35.71%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.02%3.12fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.767%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.82%32.03%32.00%33.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.882.903.0538.46%34.77%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Corinthians (Local): 34.72%; Palmeiras (Visit): 33.26%; Draw: 32.02%. For Corinthians (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.95%EV +2.42%E +0.819%K +1.24%G +0.030%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.10%EV -5.20%E -1.82%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.95%EV -5.54%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-12 21:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.95%EV +2.42%E +0.819%K +1.24%G +0.030%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.10%EV -5.20%E -1.82%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.95%EV -5.54%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-12 21:30
1xBet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.32%EV +1.03%E +0.353%K +0.537%G +0.006%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.88%EV -7.53%E -2.71%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.79%EV -2.34%E -0.767%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-12 21:29
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -0.015%E -0.005%K -0.008%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 21:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -0.015%E -0.005%K -0.008%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 21:29
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -0.015%E -0.005%K -0.008%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 21:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -0.015%E -0.005%K -0.008%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 21:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -0.015%E -0.005%K -0.008%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 21:29
betPARX🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -0.015%E -0.005%K -0.008%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 21:29
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -1.06%E -0.371%K -0.571%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -10.19%E -3.77%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:20
GTbets🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 34.19%EV -2.10%E -0.744%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.19%EV -6.20%E -2.20%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -2.34%E -0.767%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-12 21:29
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -2.79%E -0.997%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.50%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -3.94%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 21:29
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -2.79%E -0.997%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -10.19%E -3.77%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 21:30
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -2.79%E -0.997%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -11.85%E -4.47%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.75%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 21:29
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.52%EV -2.79%E -0.997%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -11.85%E -4.47%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.11%EV -11.95%E -4.34%K -6.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 21:29
Pinnacle🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.77%EV -3.49%E -1.25%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.22%EV -3.20%E -1.10%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 32.01%EV -3.30%E -1.09%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 21:29
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -4.53%E -1.65%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -5.20%E -1.82%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 21:29
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -4.53%E -1.65%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -5.20%E -1.82%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 21:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -4.53%E -1.65%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -5.54%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 21:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.31%EV -4.53%E -1.65%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.70%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -5.54%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 21:29
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -4.53%E -1.65%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.86%EV -4.53%E -1.58%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.86%EV -8.10%E -2.82%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 21:30
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -4.53%E -1.65%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.74%EV -10.19%E -3.77%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -11.95%E -4.34%K -6.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 21:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -4.53%E -1.65%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.59%EV -13.52%E -5.20%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -11.95%E -4.34%K -6.83%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-12 21:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.64%EV -4.53%E -1.65%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -12.52%E -4.76%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.24%EV -13.55%E -5.02%K -7.97%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-12 21:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.88%EV -5.22%E -1.91%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -4.20%E -1.46%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.06%EV -4.90%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 21:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.88%EV -5.22%E -1.91%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -4.20%E -1.46%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.06%EV -4.90%E -1.65%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 21:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.30%EV -5.57%E -2.05%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.97%EV -5.86%E -2.07%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:29
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.20%E -1.82%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -5.54%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 21:29
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.20%E -1.82%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -5.54%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 21:29
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.94%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 21:29
BetAnything🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.02%EV -5.20%E -1.82%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.12%EV -6.18%E -2.11%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 21:29
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -4.53%E -1.58%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.42%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 21:30
Everygame🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -5.20%E -1.82%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 21:29
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -5.20%E -1.82%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:29
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.26%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:29
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.87%EV -6.96%E -2.60%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.13%EV -6.20%E -2.20%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.00%EV -6.50%E -2.23%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 21:29
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -8.00%E -3.02%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 21:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -8.00%E -3.02%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 21:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.75%EV -8.00%E -3.02%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 21:30
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -9.04%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -3.94%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 21:29
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.01%EV -9.04%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.36%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 21:29
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.04%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.75%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 21:29
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.04%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.75%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 21:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.04%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.75%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 21:29
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -9.04%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-12 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.42%EV -9.04%E -3.45%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.79%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.79%EV -11.95%E -4.34%K -6.83%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-12 21:30
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -9.74%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -6.86%E -2.45%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -3.94%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 21:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -9.74%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -3.94%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 21:29
NordicBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.12%EV -9.74%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.84%EV -7.53%E -2.71%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.04%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 21:30
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -9.74%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -10.19%E -3.77%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.51%EV -11.95%E -4.34%K -6.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 21:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.89%EV -9.74%E -3.74%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.21%EV -16.84%E -6.74%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.89%EV -16.75%E -6.44%K -10.47%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-12 21:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.24%EV -11.47%E -4.50%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.67%EV -8.53%E -3.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.09%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 21:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.02%EV -11.47%E -4.50%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.08%EV -10.19%E -3.77%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.90%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.75%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-12 21:21
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -13.21%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -10.19%E -3.77%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.75%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-12 21:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.03%EV -13.21%E -5.28%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.69%EV -13.52%E -5.20%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.28%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.75%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-12 21:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.77%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.15%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%0.6%2026-04-12 21:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.84I 35.21%NM 34.93%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.00%0.8%2026-04-12 21:30
Matchbook2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-04-12 21:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.25%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%1.3%2026-04-12 21:30
Smarkets2.76I 36.23%NM 35.40%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.57%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.03%2.4%2026-04-12 21:30
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 34.61%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.75%3.9%2026-04-12 21:30