Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Corinthians v Flamengo

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 23:32 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Corinthians (Local)

Prediction 28.13%3.56fair odd
EV +4.06%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.51%
Growth +0.061%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.92%28.10%28.08%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.343.303.7033.90%29.96%30.30%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Flamengo (Visit)

Prediction 41.20%2.43fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.990%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.10%41.20%41.29%42.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.242.252.3748.78%44.65%44.44%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.67%3.26fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.678%
Kelly -0.987%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.62%30.70%30.63%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.003.003.1937.04%33.30%33.33%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Corinthians (Local): 28.13%; Flamengo (Visit): 41.20%; Draw: 30.67%. For Corinthians (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV +4.06%E +1.10%K +1.51%G +0.061%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.85%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.10%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 23:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV +1.25%E +0.348%K +0.482%G +0.006%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 23:30
betPARX🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV +1.25%E +0.348%K +0.482%G +0.006%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 23:30
1xBet🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%EV +0.408%E +0.114%K +0.159%G +0.001%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.39%EV -5.64%E -2.46%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.43%EV -2.16%E -0.678%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 23:29
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.21%EV -0.154%E -0.043%K -0.061%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.63%EV -4.41%E -1.90%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 23:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -0.154%E -0.043%K -0.061%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.72%EV -11.00%E -5.09%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -9.52%E -3.23%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 23:30
LeoVegas🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -1.56%E -0.446%K -0.624%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -11.41%E -5.31%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -9.52%E -3.23%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 23:30
TABtouch🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -1.56%E -0.446%K -0.624%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.79%EV -12.65%E -5.97%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.06%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-22 23:30
Pinnacle🎯3.49I 28.65%NM 27.74%EV -1.84%E -0.528%K -0.740%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.03%EV -2.76%E -1.17%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.23%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-22 23:29
Coolbet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 27.39%EV -2.12%E -0.610%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.36%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.26%EV -3.39%E -1.08%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 23:28
BetOnline.ag🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 27.52%EV -2.69%E -0.776%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.76%EV -6.05%E -2.66%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 23:29
LowVig.ag🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 27.52%EV -2.69%E -0.776%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.76%EV -6.05%E -2.66%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 23:30
BetAnything🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 27.52%EV -2.69%E -0.776%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.76%EV -6.05%E -2.66%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 23:29
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -2.97%E -0.860%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 23:29
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -2.97%E -0.860%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 23:29
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -2.97%E -0.860%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 23:29
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -2.97%E -0.860%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 23:30
BetRivers🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -2.97%E -0.860%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 23:15
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -2.97%E -0.860%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -13.47%E -6.41%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.04%EV -11.06%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 23:30
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.37%E -1.29%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 23:29
BetUS🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.37%E -1.29%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -6.46%E -2.12%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 23:29
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.37%E -1.29%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 23:30
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -4.37%E -1.29%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -9.52%E -3.23%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 23:30
Codere (IT)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -5.78%E -1.73%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.50%EV -6.47%E -2.85%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 23:29
Everygame🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -5.78%E -1.73%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 23:29
GTbets🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 28.17%EV -6.62%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.27%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-22 23:29
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -3.17%E -1.35%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -6.46%E -2.12%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 23:29
Bet Victor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 23:29
Bovada🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 23:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 23:30
Bet Right🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 23:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 23:29
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 23:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.07%EV -6.47%E -2.85%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -6.76%E -2.22%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 23:29
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.06%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 23:29
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.06%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 23:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.06%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 23:29
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.29%E -3.24%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.06%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 23:29
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -7.19%E -2.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.48%EV -10.59%E -4.88%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -11.67%E -4.05%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 23:30
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.24%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.10%EV -2.35%E -0.990%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 23:30
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -4.41%E -1.90%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.24%EV -8.60%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 23:30
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -4.41%E -1.90%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.24%EV -8.60%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 23:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 23:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 23:29
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 23:29
Betr (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-22 23:29
BoyleSports🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.59%E -2.64%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 23:30
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.92%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 23:29
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.23%E -2.27%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.99%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 23:29
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.00%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -11.67%E -4.05%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 23:30
Betclic (FR)🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 28.12%EV -10.84%E -3.42%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 41.86%EV -12.23%E -5.74%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.02%EV -8.91%E -3.00%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 23:27
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -11.40%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.51%EV -9.52%E -3.23%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 23:30
Unibet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.86%EV -11.40%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.39%EV -14.71%E -7.10%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -9.52%E -3.23%K -4.88%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 23:29
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -11.40%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.63%EV -15.53%E -7.58%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.23%K -4.88%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-22 23:29
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -12.81%E -4.13%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -9.35%E -4.25%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -11.67%E -4.05%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-22 23:28
Fliff🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -12.81%E -4.13%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -13.47%E -6.41%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -14.12%E -5.04%K -7.85%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-22 23:30
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -14.22%E -4.66%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -11.41%E -5.31%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.67%EV -12.59%E -4.42%K -6.81%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-22 23:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 28.32%EV -17.03%E -5.77%K -8.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.75%EV -15.53%E -7.58%K -14.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.94%EV -17.19%E -6.37%K -10.11%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-22 23:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.18%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.14%0.4%2026-03-22 23:30
Matchbook3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-03-22 23:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%0.8%2026-03-22 23:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%0.8%2026-03-22 23:30
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 27.49%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%1.9%2026-03-22 23:30
Smarkets3.55I 28.17%NM 27.50%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.01%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.49%2.4%2026-03-22 23:30