The School of Odds

Corinthians v Atletico Paranaense

2026-07-30 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série A

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Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Corinthians (Local)

Prediction 49.20%2.03fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -3.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.94%49.11%49.30%49.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.721.881.911.9758%53%52%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Atletico Paranaense (Visit)

Prediction 22.13%4.52fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -0.757%
Kelly -0.982%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.52%22.18%21.99%24.12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.604.074.004.3728%25%25%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.68%3.49fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.63%28.71%28.71%29.43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.3333%31%31%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.97I 50.76%NM 48.53%EV -3.09%E -1.57%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.50%EV -5.96%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -5.36%E -1.62%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-23 16:19
1xBet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV -4.07%E -2.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.96%EV -3.31%E -0.757%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.82%EV -4.50%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-23 16:30
Coolbet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -4.07%E -2.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.36%E -1.62%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-23 16:19
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -4.07%E -2.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.36%E -1.62%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-23 16:19
Bet Right1.92I 52.08%NM 48.57%EV -5.55%E -2.89%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -9.28%E -2.26%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-23 16:20
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -6.04%E -3.16%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.86%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -5.36%E -1.62%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-23 15:35
betfred_uk1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -6.04%E -3.16%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -11.50%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.23%E -2.57%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 16:19
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.04%E -3.16%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.50%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.10%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-23 15:55
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.04%E -3.16%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.50%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.10%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-23 15:55
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.04%E -3.16%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.50%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.10%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-23 16:00
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.04%E -3.16%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.50%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.10%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-23 16:00
Marathon Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.18%EV -6.53%E -3.44%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.96%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.84%EV -7.08%E -2.19%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 18:30
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 47.89%EV -6.53%E -3.44%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -11.50%E -2.87%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -11.10%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-23 16:19
betano_uk1.87I 53.48%NM 49.82%EV -8.01%E -4.28%K -9.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -4.19%E -0.969%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 17:25
Bet Victor1.87I 53.48%NM 49.82%EV -8.01%E -4.28%K -9.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -4.19%E -0.969%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 17:23
Codere (IT)1.86I 53.76%NM 49.62%EV -8.50%E -4.57%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -7.07%E -1.68%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -6.79%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-23 15:14
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 46.94%EV -8.99%E -4.86%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.12%EV -20.35%E -5.65%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.94%EV -13.96%E -4.65%K -6.98%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-23 16:20
Betclic (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 49.75%EV -13.42%E -7.62%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.00%EV -11.94%E -3.00%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -11.10%E -3.58%K -5.28%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-23 15:13
Winamax (DE)1.76I 56.82%NM 49.46%EV -13.42%E -7.62%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.91%EV -15.92%E -4.19%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.63%EV -9.66%E -3.07%K -4.49%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-23 15:15
Unibet (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 49.35%EV -14.40%E -8.28%K -19.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.02%EV -13.71%E -3.52%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.63%EV -13.96%E -4.65%K -6.98%G +0.000%16.4%2026-07-23 15:15
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 48.91%EV -15.38%E -8.94%K -21.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.05%EV -19.24%E -5.27%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.04%EV -13.96%E -4.65%K -6.98%G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-23 15:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 48.83%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.32%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.84%16.3%2026-07-23 15:20