L’École des cotes

Chapecoense v Bragantino-SP

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-03 21:30 UTC

Score final : Chapecoense 1–2 Bragantino-SP

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Chapecoense (Local)

Prévision 23.15%4.32cote équitable
EV +4.18%
Avantage +0.929%
Kelly +1.19%
Croissance +0.050%

avec la cote maximale 4.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.39%23.15%23.09%24.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.654.104.104.5027.40%24.41%24.39%22.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Bragantino-SP (Visiteur)

Prévision 49.10%2.04cote équitable
EV -3.28%
Avantage -1.67%
Kelly -3.38%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.97

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.47%49.02%49.15%51.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.761.881.911.9756.82%53.19%52.36%50.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.75%3.60cote équitable
EV -1.47%
Avantage -0.415%
Kelly -0.578%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.06%27.83%27.76%29.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.343.383.5534.72%29.94%29.59%28.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel4.50I 22.22%NM 21.51%EV +4.18%E +0.929%K +1.19%G +0.050%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.22%EV -7.21%E -3.81%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.27%EV -1.47%E -0.415%K -0.578%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 20:55
ATG (SE)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.51%EV +4.18%E +0.929%K +1.19%G +0.050%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.22%EV -7.21%E -3.81%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.27%EV -1.47%E -0.415%K -0.578%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 20:55
1xBet4.44I 22.52%NM 21.83%EV +2.79%E +0.629%K +0.811%G +0.023%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.48%EV -5.74%E -2.99%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -2.86%E -0.818%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 21:25
Unibet4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.12%EV -9.66%E -5.25%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 20:56
Casumo4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 20:53
Unibet (NL)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 20:53
Grosvenor4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 20:53
Unibet (SE)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 20:53
betPARX4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 20:56
BetRivers4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 20:55
LeoVegas (SE)4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -0.450%E -0.105%K -0.136%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.99%EV -11.14%E -6.15%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 20:55
GTbets4.28I 23.36%NM 22.26%EV -0.913%E -0.213%K -0.278%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.37%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.36%EV -6.75%E -2.01%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 19:35
Pinnacle4.26I 23.47%NM 22.69%EV -1.38%E -0.323%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.06%EV -3.28%E -1.67%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.26%EV -5.08%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-03 21:11
BetOnline.ag4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV -6.19%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 21:20
LowVig.ag4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV -6.19%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 21:20
BetUS4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV -6.19%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 21:20
BetAnything4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV -6.19%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 21:20
LeoVegas4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV -11.63%E -6.46%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 20:56
PMU (FR)4.25I 23.53%NM 21.39%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.07%EV -12.61%E -7.08%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 20:53
TABtouch4.25I 23.53%NM 21.39%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.07%EV -12.61%E -7.08%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 20:53
Coral4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -2.77%E -0.658%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 19:10
SportsBet4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -2.77%E -0.658%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.72%EV -6.72%E -3.54%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 20:55
Everygame4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -2.77%E -0.658%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -6.72%E -3.54%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 20:46
Virgin Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -2.77%E -0.658%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.22%EV -13.59%E -7.72%K -17.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-03 20:55
LiveScore Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -2.77%E -0.658%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.22%EV -13.59%E -7.72%K -17.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-03 20:54
Coolbet4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.26%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 18:45
Codere (IT)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.19%EV -5.74%E -2.99%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 20:50
Fanatics4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 20:49
BetMGM4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 19:10
DraftKings4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 20:45
Bovada4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 21:05
FanDuel4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 21:25
Tipico (DE)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -9.17%E -4.96%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 20:55
Marathon Bet4.05I 24.69%NM 23.06%EV -6.24%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -5.74%E -2.99%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:20
Bet Victor4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 21:23
Ladbrokes (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 19:10
Ladbrokes (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 19:10
Neds4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 19:10
Unibet (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 20:50
888sport4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 20:55
Mr Green (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 20:55
888sport (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 20:55
William Hill4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 20:55
Betsson3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.55%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.74%E -2.99%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 20:45
NordicBet3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.55%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.74%E -2.99%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 20:45
Bet Right3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 21:25
PointsBet (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 20:16
Betr (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -6.72%E -3.54%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 20:15
Unibet (FR)3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -11.63%E -6.46%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 21:00
PlayUp3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -10.87%E -2.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -4.26%E -2.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 20:55
Winamax (DE)3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -10.87%E -2.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.06%EV -8.68%E -4.67%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 20:50
Betclic (FR)3.85I 25.97%NM 23.20%EV -10.87%E -2.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.07%EV -10.65%E -5.85%K -12.98%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.73%EV -10.63%E -3.30%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 21:05
Betway3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -12.03%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.26%E -2.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 20:50
BoyleSports3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -12.03%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -8.19%E -4.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 21:04
Paddy Power3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -12.03%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -9.17%E -4.96%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 21:25
Sky Bet3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -12.03%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-03 21:25
betfred_uk3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -13.18%E -3.52%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -6.72%E -3.54%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 21:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 22.80%EV -13.18%E -3.52%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.51%EV -11.63%E -6.46%K -14.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.69%EV -20.07%E -6.97%K -10.68%G +0.000%16.9%2026-05-03 20:55
Winamax (FR)3.65I 27.40%NM 24.09%EV -15.50%E -4.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.85%EV -11.63%E -6.46%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.06%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-03 20:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.31%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-05-03 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.31%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-05-03 21:25
Matchbook4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-05-03 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-05-03 21:25
Smarkets4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-05-03 21:25
Kalshi4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-05-03 21:00