La escuela de los momios

Chapecoense v Bragantino-SP

Inicio: 2026-05-03 21:30 UTC

Final: Chapecoense 1–2 Bragantino-SP

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Chapecoense (Local)

Predicción 23.15%4.32momio equitativo
EV +4.18%
Ventaja +0.929%
Kelly +1.19%
Crecimiento +0.050%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.39%23.15%23.09%24.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.654.104.104.5027.40%24.41%24.39%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Bragantino-SP (Visitante)

Predicción 49.10%2.04momio equitativo
EV -3.28%
Ventaja -1.67%
Kelly -3.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.47%49.02%49.15%51.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.761.881.911.9756.82%53.19%52.36%50.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.75%3.60momio equitativo
EV -1.47%
Ventaja -0.415%
Kelly -0.578%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.06%27.83%27.76%29.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.343.383.5534.72%29.94%29.59%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel4.50I 22.22%NM 21.51%EV +4.18%E +0.929%K +1.19%G +0.050%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.22%EV -7.21%E -3.81%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.27%EV -1.47%E -0.415%K -0.578%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 20:55
ATG (SE)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.51%EV +4.18%E +0.929%K +1.19%G +0.050%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.22%EV -7.21%E -3.81%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.27%EV -1.47%E -0.415%K -0.578%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 20:55
1xBet4.44I 22.52%NM 21.83%EV +2.79%E +0.629%K +0.811%G +0.023%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.48%EV -5.74%E -2.99%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -2.86%E -0.818%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 21:25
Unibet4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.12%EV -9.66%E -5.25%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 20:56
Casumo4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 20:53
Unibet (NL)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 20:53
Grosvenor4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 20:53
Unibet (SE)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 20:53
betPARX4.35I 22.99%NM 21.56%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.25%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 20:56
BetRivers4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV +0.707%E +0.163%K +0.211%G +0.001%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 20:55
LeoVegas (SE)4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -0.450%E -0.105%K -0.136%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.99%EV -11.14%E -6.15%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 20:55
GTbets4.28I 23.36%NM 22.26%EV -0.913%E -0.213%K -0.278%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.37%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.36%EV -6.75%E -2.01%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 19:35
Pinnacle4.26I 23.47%NM 22.69%EV -1.38%E -0.323%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.06%EV -3.28%E -1.67%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.26%EV -5.08%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-03 21:11
BetOnline.ag4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV -6.19%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 21:20
LowVig.ag4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV -6.19%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 21:20
BetUS4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV -6.19%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 21:20
BetAnything4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.38%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV -6.19%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 21:20
LeoVegas4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.00%EV -11.63%E -6.46%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 20:56
PMU (FR)4.25I 23.53%NM 21.39%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.07%EV -12.61%E -7.08%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 20:53
TABtouch4.25I 23.53%NM 21.39%EV -1.61%E -0.378%K -0.495%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.07%EV -12.61%E -7.08%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 20:53
Coral4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -2.77%E -0.658%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 19:10
SportsBet4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -2.77%E -0.658%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.72%EV -6.72%E -3.54%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 20:55
Everygame4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -2.77%E -0.658%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -6.72%E -3.54%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 20:46
Virgin Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -2.77%E -0.658%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.22%EV -13.59%E -7.72%K -17.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-03 20:55
LiveScore Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -2.77%E -0.658%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.22%EV -13.59%E -7.72%K -17.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-03 20:54
Coolbet4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.26%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -4.25%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 18:45
Codere (IT)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.19%EV -5.74%E -2.99%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 20:50
Fanatics4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 20:49
BetMGM4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 19:10
DraftKings4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 20:45
Bovada4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.65%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 21:05
FanDuel4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 21:25
Tipico (DE)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.71%EV -9.17%E -4.96%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 20:55
Marathon Bet4.05I 24.69%NM 23.06%EV -6.24%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -5.74%E -2.99%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 21:20
Bet Victor4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 21:23
Ladbrokes (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 19:10
Ladbrokes (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 19:10
Neds4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 19:10
Unibet (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 20:50
888sport4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 20:55
Mr Green (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 20:55
888sport (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 20:55
William Hill4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.40%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 20:55
Betsson3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.55%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.74%E -2.99%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 20:45
NordicBet3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -8.55%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.56%EV -5.74%E -2.99%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.83%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 20:45
Bet Right3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 21:25
PointsBet (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 20:16
Betr (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -6.72%E -3.54%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 20:15
Unibet (FR)3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -9.71%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -11.63%E -6.46%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 21:00
PlayUp3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -10.87%E -2.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -4.26%E -2.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 20:55
Winamax (DE)3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -10.87%E -2.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.06%EV -8.68%E -4.67%K -10.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -7.02%E -2.10%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 20:50
Betclic (FR)3.85I 25.97%NM 23.20%EV -10.87%E -2.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.07%EV -10.65%E -5.85%K -12.98%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.73%EV -10.63%E -3.30%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 21:05
Betway3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -12.03%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -4.26%E -2.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.64%E -1.66%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 20:50
BoyleSports3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -12.03%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -8.19%E -4.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 21:04
Paddy Power3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -12.03%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -9.17%E -4.96%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -11.19%E -3.50%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 21:25
Sky Bet3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -12.03%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -10.16%E -5.55%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -13.96%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-03 21:25
betfred_uk3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -13.18%E -3.52%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -6.72%E -3.54%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.41%E -2.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 21:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 22.80%EV -13.18%E -3.52%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.51%EV -11.63%E -6.46%K -14.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.69%EV -20.07%E -6.97%K -10.68%G +0.000%16.9%2026-05-03 20:55
Winamax (FR)3.65I 27.40%NM 24.09%EV -15.50%E -4.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.85%EV -11.63%E -6.46%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.06%EV -9.80%E -3.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-03 20:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.31%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-05-03 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.31%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-05-03 21:25
Matchbook4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-05-03 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-05-03 21:25
Smarkets4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-05-03 21:25
Kalshi4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-05-03 21:00