L’École des cotes

Chapecoense v Botafogo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-18 21:30 UTC

Score final : Chapecoense 1–4 Botafogo

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Chapecoense (Local)

Prévision 26.51%3.77cote équitable
EV +4.98%
Avantage +1.26%
Kelly +1.68%
Croissance +0.084%

avec la cote maximale 3.96

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.50%26.54%26.53%28.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.473.403.9631.25%28.82%29.41%25.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Botafogo (Visiteur)

Prévision 46.05%2.17cote équitable
EV +0.385%
Avantage +0.176%
Kelly +0.326%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 2.18

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.35%46.07%45.99%49.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.832.042.042.1854.64%49.10%49.02%45.87%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.44%3.64cote équitable
EV +0.440%
Avantage +0.120%
Kelly +0.166%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 3.66

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.39%27.39%27.48%28.66%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.363.353.6633.33%29.72%29.85%27.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet3.96I 25.25%NM 24.50%EV +4.98%E +1.26%K +1.68%G +0.084%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.00%EV -8.82%E -4.46%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.51%EV +0.440%E +0.120%K +0.166%G +0.001%3.1%2026-04-18 21:25
LowVig.ag3.85I 25.97%NM 24.75%EV +2.06%E +0.535%K +0.723%G +0.015%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.62%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-18 21:20
BetOnline.ag3.85I 25.97%NM 24.75%EV +2.06%E +0.535%K +0.723%G +0.015%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.62%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-18 21:20
BetAnything3.85I 25.97%NM 24.75%EV +2.06%E +0.535%K +0.723%G +0.015%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.62%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-18 21:20
Pinnacle3.84I 26.04%NM 25.17%EV +1.80%E +0.468%K +0.632%G +0.011%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.14%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.69%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-18 21:25
BetUS3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -1.92%E -0.518%K -0.710%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 21:24
Bovada3.65I 27.40%NM 25.72%EV -3.24%E -0.888%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.25%EV -6.52%E -3.21%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 21:17
Marathon Bet3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -3.51%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.63%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.75%EV -7.79%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 21:25
SportsBet3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 21:00
Bet Victor3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 21:25
FanDuel3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 21:25
Betway3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 21:15
Everygame3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 21:20
Tipico (DE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -4.57%E -1.27%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.64%EV -9.29%E -4.71%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 21:20
Betsson3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -5.89%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -6.98%E -3.46%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 21:15
NordicBet3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -5.89%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -6.98%E -3.46%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 21:14
ATG (SE)3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV +0.385%E +0.176%K +0.326%G +0.001%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-18 21:15
Svenska Spel3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV +0.385%E +0.176%K +0.326%G +0.001%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-18 21:15
Codere (IT)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.63%EV -4.68%E -2.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 21:25
DraftKings3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 21:15
Fanatics3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-18 21:15
888sport3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 21:25
William Hill3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 21:25
888sport (SE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 21:25
Mr Green (SE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.22%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 21:25
GTbets3.49I 28.65%NM 27.19%EV -7.48%E -2.14%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.62%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.19%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-18 21:25
Coolbet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.94%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.67%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -1.21%E -0.335%K -0.464%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 21:20
Coral3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-18 21:15
BetMGM3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-18 21:15
Ladbrokes (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 21:15
Ladbrokes (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 21:15
Neds3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 21:15
Unibet (NL)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 21:15
Unibet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 21:15
Grosvenor3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 21:15
Unibet (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 21:15
Casumo3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 21:15
betPARX3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 21:15
BetRivers3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-18 21:15
PlayUp3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 21:20
Paddy Power3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-18 21:00
BoyleSports3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -9.87%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -10.21%E -5.23%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-18 21:15
Bet Right3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -11.19%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 21:20
LeoVegas (SE)3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -11.19%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-18 21:15
LeoVegas3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -11.19%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.47%EV -5.14%E -2.50%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-18 21:15
Unibet (FR)3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -11.19%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.28%EV -11.13%E -5.77%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-18 21:19
Betclic (FR)3.33I 30.03%NM 26.79%EV -11.72%E -3.52%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.75%EV -10.21%E -5.23%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-18 21:20
Betr (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 21:20
PointsBet (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 21:20
betfred_uk3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 21:20
Winamax (DE)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-18 21:20
TABtouch3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.53%EV -6.06%E -2.97%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-18 21:15
PMU (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.53%EV -6.06%E -2.97%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-18 21:15
Sky Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -14.93%E -4.82%K -7.11%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-18 21:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 25.62%EV -12.52%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 46.20%EV -15.73%E -8.60%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.18%EV -17.67%E -5.89%K -8.84%G +0.000%18.3%2026-04-18 21:25
LiveScore Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -13.84%E -4.26%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.39%EV -6.98%E -3.46%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-18 21:15
Virgin Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -13.84%E -4.26%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.39%EV -6.98%E -3.46%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-18 21:15
Winamax (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -15.17%E -4.74%K -6.90%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.39%EV -10.67%E -5.50%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-18 21:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.51%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64%0.5%2026-04-18 21:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.51%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64%0.5%2026-04-18 21:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.74%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%0.9%2026-04-18 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.74%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%0.9%2026-04-18 21:25
Smarkets3.80I 26.32%NM 25.77%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.64%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.59%2.1%2026-04-18 21:25
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 26.91%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.18%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.91%4.1%2026-04-18 21:25