Language:English
Chapecoense v Atletico Mineiro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chapecoense (Local)
Prediction 31.70%3.15fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.555%
Kelly -0.820%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.42%31.64%31.52%32.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.852.903.1038.46%35.05%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Atletico Mineiro (Visit)
Prediction 39.40%2.54fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.14%39.54%39.47%41.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.302.302.4547.62%43.52%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -0.517%
Kelly -0.733%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.09%28.82%29.01%30.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.123.103.4035.71%32.08%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chapecoense (Local): 31.70%; Atletico Mineiro (Visit): 39.40%; Draw: 28.89%. For Chapecoense (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -1.72%E -0.555%K -0.820%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 14:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.17%EV -2.36%E -0.765%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.19%EV -3.46%E -1.41%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.63%EV -6.38%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-23 00:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -4.89%E -1.63%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-20 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.20%EV -5.21%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -6.22%E -2.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -8.98%E -2.85%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-23 00:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -5.53%E -1.85%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.22%E -2.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-20 18:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -5.53%E -1.85%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.33%EV -6.22%E -2.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-20 18:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.98%EV -3.46%E -1.41%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -1.76%E -0.517%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 21:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.43%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 21:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.43%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 21:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.20%EV -7.01%E -2.97%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.91%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 00:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-20 18:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-20 18:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-21 00:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -9.65%E -3.38%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-20 17:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -11.23%E -4.01%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 01:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -11.23%E -4.01%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.37%E -4.08%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-22 21:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.21%EV -12.82%E -4.66%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.14%EV -11.34%E -5.04%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.65%EV -19.10%E -6.82%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-03-22 21:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -14.40%E -5.33%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -11.34%E -5.04%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-03-22 21:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.13%EV -14.40%E -5.33%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.43%EV -13.31%E -6.05%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.44%EV -11.87%E -3.89%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.54%EV -14.40%E -5.33%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 39.60%EV -15.28%E -7.11%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 28.86%EV -14.76%E -5.00%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 17.4% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 31.43%EV -15.99%E -6.03%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 39.66%EV -17.25%E -8.22%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 28.92%EV -16.78%E -5.83%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 20.1% | 2026-03-21 01:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 32.36%EV -17.57%E -6.76%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 39.13%EV -15.28%E -7.11%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 28.52%EV -14.76%E -5.00%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 18.9% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 32.20%EV -17.57%E -6.76%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 38.94%EV -15.28%E -7.11%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 28.87%EV -16.21%E -5.59%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 19.5% | 2026-03-22 21:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.