Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bragantino-SP v Flamengo

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bragantino-SP (Local)

Prediction 25.54%3.91fair odd
EV +9.58%
Edge +2.23%
Kelly +2.91%
Growth +0.279%

assuming max odds 4.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.63%25.42%25.68%26.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.423.733.704.2929.24%26.80%27.03%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Flamengo (Visit)

Prediction 44.96%2.22fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.05%45.09%44.80%47.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.052.062.1454.64%48.71%48.54%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.50%3.39fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.802%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%29.50%29.53%30.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.123.153.3034.72%32.02%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bragantino-SP (Local): 25.54%; Flamengo (Visit): 44.96%; Draw: 29.50%. For Bragantino-SP (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.29, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.29I 23.31%NM 22.63%EV +9.58%E +2.23%K +2.91%G +0.279%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59%EV -8.29%E -4.06%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.78%EV -3.83%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-03 00:24
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%EV +4.73%E +1.15%K +1.53%G +0.072%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.66%EV -4.69%E -2.21%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%EV -7.07%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-03 00:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%EV +4.73%E +1.15%K +1.53%G +0.072%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.66%EV -4.69%E -2.21%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%EV -7.07%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-03 00:25
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV +2.17%E +0.544%K +0.725%G +0.016%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-03 00:20
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +2.17%E +0.544%K +0.725%G +0.016%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -10.09%E -5.04%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-03 00:25
BetUS🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +2.17%E +0.544%K +0.725%G +0.016%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -10.09%E -5.04%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-03 00:15
Grosvenor🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV +0.897%E +0.227%K +0.304%G +0.003%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.52%EV -7.39%E -3.59%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -10.02%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 00:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV +0.897%E +0.227%K +0.304%G +0.003%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.52%EV -7.39%E -3.59%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -10.02%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 00:25
Casumo🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV +0.897%E +0.227%K +0.304%G +0.003%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.52%EV -7.39%E -3.59%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -10.02%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 00:24
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV +0.897%E +0.227%K +0.304%G +0.003%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.52%EV -7.39%E -3.59%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -10.02%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 00:25
Unibet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV +0.897%E +0.227%K +0.304%G +0.003%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.52%EV -7.39%E -3.59%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -10.02%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 00:25
betPARX🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV +0.897%E +0.227%K +0.304%G +0.003%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.52%EV -7.39%E -3.59%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -10.02%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 00:25
Pinnacle🎯3.92I 25.51%NM 24.66%EV +0.131%E +0.033%K +0.045%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.04%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -2.65%E -0.802%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-03 00:20
Everygame🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -1.66%E -0.430%K -0.581%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -7.07%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-03 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -1.66%E -0.430%K -0.581%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.48%EV -8.29%E -4.06%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.42%EV -10.02%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-03 00:25
LeoVegas🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -1.66%E -0.430%K -0.581%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -9.19%E -4.55%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-03 00:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -2.93%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.71%EV -4.24%E -1.99%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -7.07%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 00:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -2.93%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.71%EV -4.24%E -1.99%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -7.07%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 00:00
BetAnything🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -2.93%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.71%EV -4.24%E -1.99%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -7.07%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 00:00
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.93%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-03 00:25
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -2.93%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 00:24
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -2.93%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -10.09%E -5.04%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 00:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -2.93%E -0.772%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.24%EV -15.03%E -7.95%K -16.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.27%EV -10.02%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-03 00:24
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.09%EV -12.79%E -6.59%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-03 00:25
PMU (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.83%EV -11.44%E -5.81%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.09%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-03 00:24
TABtouch🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.83%EV -11.44%E -5.81%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.09%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-03 00:24
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.01%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.47%EV -10.99%E -5.55%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.52%EV -12.97%E -4.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-03 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -4.21%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.60%EV -11.44%E -5.81%K -11.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.45%EV -12.97%E -4.40%K -6.65%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-03 00:24
BetRivers🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -4.69%E -2.21%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -10.02%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-02 23:45
888sport🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-03 00:24
William Hill🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-03 00:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-03 00:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -5.49%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-03 00:20
GTbets🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 25.86%EV -5.74%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.59%EV -3.79%E -1.77%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.54%EV -4.71%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-03 00:14
DraftKings🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -6.77%E -1.85%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-03 00:01
Codere (IT)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.19%EV -3.79%E -1.77%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.55%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 00:00
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 00:20
Bet Victor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -2.65%E -0.802%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 00:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.40%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.70%EV -7.37%E -2.35%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 00:24
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -10.09%E -5.04%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-03 00:19
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -10.09%E -5.04%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-02 23:09
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%EV -8.04%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.76%EV -15.48%E -8.24%K -17.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -10.02%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-03 00:24
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -9.32%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.05%EV -4.69%E -2.21%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.07%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 00:25
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -9.32%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.05%EV -4.69%E -2.21%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.07%E -2.25%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 00:25
Bet Right🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -9.32%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.84%E -3.82%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -4.12%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-03 00:25
PlayUp🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -9.32%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.07%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.55%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 00:25
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -2.65%E -0.802%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-03 00:20
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -2.65%E -0.802%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-03 00:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.12%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-03 00:25
Neds🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.12%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-03 00:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.12%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-03 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.12%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-03 00:15
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 00:20
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.60%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-03 00:25
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.09%E -5.04%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.50%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-03 00:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.23%EV -10.60%E -3.03%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 46.33%EV -17.73%E -9.69%K -21.36%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.44%EV -15.04%E -5.22%K -8.00%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-03 00:24
Betclic (FR)🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 26.17%EV -12.64%E -3.70%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.30%EV -9.19%E -4.55%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.53%EV -10.61%E -3.50%K -5.23%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-03 00:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.05%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-04-03 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.05%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-04-03 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%0.7%2026-04-03 00:25
Matchbook4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.84%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01%1.0%2026-04-03 00:25
Smarkets4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.80%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70%2.0%2026-04-03 00:20
Kalshi4.00I 25.00%NM 24.25%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.63%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%3.1%2026-04-03 00:10