L’École des cotes

Botafogo v Mirassol

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-01 22:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Prévision 40.47%2.47cote équitable
EV -1.67%
Avantage -0.687%
Kelly -1.17%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.43

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
37.93%40.62%40.47%43.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.102.272.302.4347.62%44.05%43.48%41.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Mirassol (Visiteur)

Prévision 30.90%3.24cote équitable
EV +5.07%
Avantage +1.49%
Kelly +2.11%
Croissance +0.107%

avec la cote maximale 3.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.46%30.73%30.91%31.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.753.073.053.4036.36%32.57%32.79%29.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.63%3.49cote équitable
EV -1.22%
Avantage -0.354%
Kelly -0.498%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.69%28.66%28.62%31.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.753.243.253.4536.36%30.89%30.77%28.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.22%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.60%EV +5.07%E +1.49%K +2.11%G +0.107%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.18%EV -1.22%E -0.354%K -0.498%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-01 22:15
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 43.22%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.60%EV +5.07%E +1.49%K +2.11%G +0.107%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.18%EV -1.22%E -0.354%K -0.498%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-01 22:15
1xBet2.31I 43.29%NM 42.03%EV -6.52%E -2.82%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.16%EV +2.91%E +0.873%K +1.25%G +0.036%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.81%EV -3.51%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-01 22:20
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:15
Grosvenor2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:15
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:14
Casumo2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:14
Unibet (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:15
betPARX2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:15
BetRivers2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV +0.434%E +0.134%K +0.193%G +0.001%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-01 22:14
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -14.21%E -6.70%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV +0.434%E +0.134%K +0.193%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -4.08%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 19:09
LeoVegas (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -13.00%E -6.05%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -1.11%E -0.347%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 22:15
LeoVegas2.14I 46.73%NM 42.97%EV -13.40%E -6.26%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -1.11%E -0.347%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-01 22:09
GTbets2.33I 42.92%NM 41.04%EV -5.72%E -2.45%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.07%EV -1.73%E -0.544%K -0.793%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.89%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-01 21:59
TABtouch2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -14.21%E -6.70%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:14
LiveScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -15.02%E -7.15%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-01 22:10
Virgin Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -15.02%E -7.15%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-01 22:09
Pinnacle2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -1.67%E -0.687%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.24%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV -4.08%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-01 22:10
Coolbet2.38I 42.02%NM 40.00%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-01 22:04
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-01 21:50
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-01 21:48
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-01 21:49
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:13
LowVig.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.20%EV -4.10%E -1.73%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -4.82%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-01 22:05
BetOnline.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.20%EV -4.10%E -1.73%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -4.82%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-01 22:09
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-01 22:00
Codere (IT)2.33I 42.92%NM 40.49%EV -5.72%E -2.45%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-01 21:59
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:14
BetAnything2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:20
BetUS2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:19
Bovada2.34I 42.74%NM 40.21%EV -5.31%E -2.27%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-01 22:15
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-01 22:00
NordicBet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.23%EV -6.12%E -2.64%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 22:09
Marathon Bet2.31I 43.29%NM 40.36%EV -6.52%E -2.82%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.87%EV -6.67%E -2.21%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.77%EV -7.23%E -2.23%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-01 22:14
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -2.88%E -1.20%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-01 22:04
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 22:15
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 21:50
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -2.88%E -1.20%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -11.24%E -3.63%K -5.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-01 22:05
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-01 22:09
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 22:10
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 22:10
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-01 22:00
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-01 22:15
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.47%EV -13.00%E -6.05%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -9.81%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-01 22:00
Betclic (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 40.93%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.56%EV -9.76%E -3.34%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.51%EV -10.38%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-01 22:04
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-01 21:49
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.24%E -3.63%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:00
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.24%E -3.63%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:04
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.24%E -3.63%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:00
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.24%E -3.63%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:00
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -10.98%E -4.99%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-01 22:00
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.00%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -14.11%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-01 22:05
Sky Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -11.00%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -14.11%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-01 21:49
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.81%EV -13.00%E -6.05%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.34%EV -13.47%E -4.81%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -9.81%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-01 22:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 37.93%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.03%EV -15.02%E -5.46%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.03%EV -21.26%E -7.73%K -12.15%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-01 22:04
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.91%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.92%0.2%2026-04-01 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-04-01 22:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-04-01 22:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-04-01 22:15
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.34%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.73%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.93%1.7%2026-04-01 22:20
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.19%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%2.0%2026-04-01 22:10