La escuela de los momios

Botafogo v Mirassol

Inicio: 2026-04-01 22:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Predicción 40.47%2.47momio equitativo
EV -1.67%
Ventaja -0.687%
Kelly -1.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.93%40.62%40.47%43.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.272.302.4347.62%44.05%43.48%41.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Mirassol (Visitante)

Predicción 30.90%3.24momio equitativo
EV +5.07%
Ventaja +1.49%
Kelly +2.11%
Crecimiento +0.107%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.46%30.73%30.91%31.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.073.053.4036.36%32.57%32.79%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.63%3.49momio equitativo
EV -1.22%
Ventaja -0.354%
Kelly -0.498%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.69%28.66%28.62%31.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.243.253.4536.36%30.89%30.77%28.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.22%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.60%EV +5.07%E +1.49%K +2.11%G +0.107%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.18%EV -1.22%E -0.354%K -0.498%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-01 22:15
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 43.22%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.60%EV +5.07%E +1.49%K +2.11%G +0.107%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.18%EV -1.22%E -0.354%K -0.498%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-01 22:15
1xBet2.31I 43.29%NM 42.03%EV -6.52%E -2.82%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.16%EV +2.91%E +0.873%K +1.25%G +0.036%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.81%EV -3.51%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-01 22:20
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:15
Grosvenor2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:15
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:14
Casumo2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:14
Unibet (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:15
betPARX2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.98%E +0.600%K +0.861%G +0.017%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:15
BetRivers2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV +0.434%E +0.134%K +0.193%G +0.001%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-01 22:14
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -14.21%E -6.70%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV +0.434%E +0.134%K +0.193%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -4.08%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 19:09
LeoVegas (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -13.00%E -6.05%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -1.11%E -0.347%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 22:15
LeoVegas2.14I 46.73%NM 42.97%EV -13.40%E -6.26%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -1.11%E -0.347%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-01 22:09
GTbets2.33I 42.92%NM 41.04%EV -5.72%E -2.45%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.07%EV -1.73%E -0.544%K -0.793%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.89%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-01 21:59
TABtouch2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -14.21%E -6.70%K -12.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:14
LiveScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -15.02%E -7.15%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-01 22:10
Virgin Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -15.02%E -7.15%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -2.66%E -0.843%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-01 22:09
Pinnacle2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -1.67%E -0.687%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.24%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV -4.08%E -1.22%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-01 22:10
Coolbet2.38I 42.02%NM 40.00%EV -3.69%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-01 22:04
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-01 21:50
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-01 21:48
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-01 21:49
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.20%E -1.36%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:13
LowVig.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.20%EV -4.10%E -1.73%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -4.82%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-01 22:05
BetOnline.ag2.37I 42.19%NM 40.20%EV -4.10%E -1.73%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -4.82%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-01 22:09
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-01 22:00
Codere (IT)2.33I 42.92%NM 40.49%EV -5.72%E -2.45%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-01 21:59
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:14
BetAnything2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:20
BetUS2.35I 42.55%NM 40.10%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:19
Bovada2.34I 42.74%NM 40.21%EV -5.31%E -2.27%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-01 22:15
Unibet (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-01 22:00
NordicBet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.23%EV -6.12%E -2.64%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.60%EV -5.75%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 22:09
Marathon Bet2.31I 43.29%NM 40.36%EV -6.52%E -2.82%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.87%EV -6.67%E -2.21%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.77%EV -7.23%E -2.23%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-01 22:14
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -2.88%E -1.20%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-01 22:04
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 22:15
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.52%E -1.67%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-01 21:50
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -2.88%E -1.20%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -11.24%E -3.63%K -5.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-01 22:05
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-01 22:09
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 22:10
PointsBet (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -4.91%E -2.09%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 22:10
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-01 22:00
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.38%E -2.62%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-01 22:15
Unibet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.47%EV -13.00%E -6.05%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -8.84%E -3.00%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -9.81%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-01 22:00
Betclic (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 40.93%EV -11.78%E -5.41%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.56%EV -9.76%E -3.34%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.51%EV -10.38%E -3.32%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-01 22:04
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-01 21:49
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.24%E -3.63%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:00
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.24%E -3.63%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:04
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.24%E -3.63%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:00
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.24%E -3.63%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-01 22:00
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -10.98%E -4.99%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -6.95%E -2.14%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-01 22:00
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -6.93%E -3.01%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.00%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -14.11%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-01 22:05
Sky Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -11.00%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -14.11%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-01 21:49
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.81%EV -13.00%E -6.05%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.34%EV -13.47%E -4.81%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -9.81%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-01 22:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 37.93%EV -8.95%E -3.98%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.03%EV -15.02%E -5.46%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.03%EV -21.26%E -7.73%K -12.15%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-01 22:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.91%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.92%0.2%2026-04-01 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.71%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-04-01 22:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-04-01 22:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.2%2026-04-01 22:15
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.34%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.73%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.93%1.7%2026-04-01 22:20
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.19%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%2.0%2026-04-01 22:10