Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo v Coritiba

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 19:02 UTC

Final: Botafogo 2–2 Coritiba

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 50.21%1.99fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -4.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.50%50.18%50.20%52.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.831.851.9159.17%54.62%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Coritiba (Visit)

Prediction 21.90%4.57fair odd
EV +7.29%
Edge +1.49%
Kelly +1.87%
Growth +0.136%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.73%21.89%21.92%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.344.304.9026.67%23.02%23.26%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.89%3.59fair odd
EV -0.993%
Edge -0.280%
Kelly -0.389%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.04%27.92%27.88%29.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.343.353.5534.72%29.99%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 50.21%; Coritiba (Visit): 21.90%; Draw: 27.89%. For Coritiba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.57. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.94%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.77%EV +7.29%E +1.49%K +1.87%G +0.136%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -0.993%E -0.280%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.94%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.77%EV +7.29%E +1.49%K +1.87%G +0.136%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -0.993%E -0.280%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.99%EV -12.13%E -6.93%K -16.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV +2.91%E +0.620%K +0.787%G +0.023%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 19:00
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.90%EV -4.59%E -2.42%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.98%EV +0.942%E +0.204%K +0.261%G +0.002%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.12%EV -4.06%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 18:59
LeoVegas🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.70%EV -12.63%E -7.26%K -17.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV +0.723%E +0.157%K +0.201%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-12 19:00
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.98%EV -13.63%E -7.93%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV +0.723%E +0.157%K +0.201%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 19:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.98%EV -13.63%E -7.93%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV +0.723%E +0.157%K +0.201%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 18:59
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.81%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.38%EV -0.590%E -0.130%K -0.167%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.81%EV -2.67%E -0.764%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 18:59
GTbets🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.60%EV -6.60%E -3.55%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.14%EV -0.590%E -0.130%K -0.167%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.26%EV -1.83%E -0.520%K -0.726%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-12 19:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.07%EV -1.03%E -0.228%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 18:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.07%EV -1.03%E -0.228%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 18:59
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.07%EV -1.03%E -0.228%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 18:59
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.58%EV -6.60%E -3.55%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -1.47%E -0.326%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -14.64%E -8.61%K -20.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -1.47%E -0.326%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 19:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -14.64%E -8.61%K -20.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -1.47%E -0.326%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 19:00
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.15%EV -4.59%E -2.42%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.41%EV -2.56%E -0.576%K -0.742%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 18:58
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.81%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.12%EV -2.56%E -0.576%K -0.742%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 18:46
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -3.66%E -0.831%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 18:59
BetUS🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.34%EV -6.60%E -3.55%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -3.66%E -0.831%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 18:57
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -3.66%E -0.831%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 19:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -3.66%E -0.831%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 19:00
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -5.85%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 19:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -5.85%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 19:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.70%EV -7.61%E -4.13%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.85%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -5.73%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 19:00
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -5.85%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -6.94%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 18:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.70%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.94%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 18:59
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 19:00
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 18:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 19:00
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 18:59
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 18:59
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -13.54%E -4.37%K -6.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -13.54%E -4.37%K -6.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 18:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -13.54%E -4.37%K -6.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 19:00
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -13.54%E -4.37%K -6.45%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-12 19:00
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.65%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -9.13%E -2.20%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 19:00
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.65%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -9.13%E -2.20%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.25%EV -4.59%E -2.42%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 18:58
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.25%EV -4.59%E -2.42%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 18:59
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 18:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 18:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.74%EV -11.62%E -6.60%K -15.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -9.36%E -2.88%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-12 18:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.19%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.06%EV -11.32%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.75%EV -10.20%E -3.17%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 19:00
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 18:59
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -4.59%E -2.42%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 19:00
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.75%E -3.36%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-12 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.32%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 19:00
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -13.54%E -4.37%K -6.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-12 19:00
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 50.91%EV -15.14%E -8.96%K -21.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.78%EV -13.51%E -3.42%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.31%EV -12.15%E -3.86%K -5.65%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.18%EV -11.62%E -6.60%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -14.60%E -3.74%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -9.36%E -2.88%K -4.16%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.50%EV -13.13%E -7.59%K -17.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.37%EV -17.89%E -4.77%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.13%EV -19.68%E -6.83%K -10.47%G +0.000%19.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.68%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.80%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.52%0.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.45%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.15%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-04-12 19:00
Matchbook1.98I 50.51%NM 50.12%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-04-12 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.77%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.71%1.0%2026-04-12 19:00
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 49.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.65%2.7%2026-04-12 19:00
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.72%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.31%6.1%2026-04-12 19:00