La escuela de los momios

Botafogo v Coritiba

Inicio: 2026-04-12 19:02 UTC

Final: Botafogo 2–2 Coritiba

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Predicción 50.21%1.99momio equitativo
EV -4.09%
Ventaja -2.14%
Kelly -4.50%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.50%50.18%50.20%52.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.691.831.851.9159.17%54.62%54.05%52.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Coritiba (Visitante)

Predicción 21.90%4.57momio equitativo
EV +7.29%
Ventaja +1.49%
Kelly +1.87%
Crecimiento +0.136%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.73%21.89%21.92%23.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.344.304.9026.67%23.02%23.26%20.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.89%3.59momio equitativo
EV -0.993%
Ventaja -0.280%
Kelly -0.389%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.04%27.92%27.88%29.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.343.353.5534.72%29.99%29.85%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel1.83I 54.64%NM 52.94%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.77%EV +7.29%E +1.49%K +1.87%G +0.136%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -0.993%E -0.280%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 19:00
ATG (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.94%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.77%EV +7.29%E +1.49%K +1.87%G +0.136%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -0.993%E -0.280%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Unibet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Casumo1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Unibet (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Grosvenor1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Unibet (NL)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
betPARX1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.82%EV +4.01%E +0.844%K +1.07%G +0.043%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -3.78%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.99%EV -12.13%E -6.93%K -16.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.73%EV +2.91%E +0.620%K +0.787%G +0.023%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 19:00
Pinnacle1.90I 52.63%NM 50.90%EV -4.59%E -2.42%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.98%EV +0.942%E +0.204%K +0.261%G +0.002%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.12%EV -4.06%E -1.18%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 18:59
LeoVegas1.74I 57.47%NM 52.70%EV -12.63%E -7.26%K -17.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV +0.723%E +0.157%K +0.201%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-12 19:00
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 52.98%EV -13.63%E -7.93%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV +0.723%E +0.157%K +0.201%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 19:00
PMU (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.98%EV -13.63%E -7.93%K -18.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV +0.723%E +0.157%K +0.201%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 18:59
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.81%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.38%EV -0.590%E -0.130%K -0.167%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.81%EV -2.67%E -0.764%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 18:59
GTbets1.86I 53.76%NM 51.60%EV -6.60%E -3.55%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.14%EV -0.590%E -0.130%K -0.167%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.26%EV -1.83%E -0.520%K -0.726%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-12 19:00
LowVig.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.07%EV -1.03%E -0.228%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 18:59
BetOnline.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.07%EV -1.03%E -0.228%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 18:59
BetAnything1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.07%EV -1.03%E -0.228%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 18:59
SportsBet1.86I 53.76%NM 50.58%EV -6.60%E -3.55%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -1.47%E -0.326%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 19:00
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -14.64%E -8.61%K -20.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -1.47%E -0.326%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 19:00
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.83%EV -14.64%E -8.61%K -20.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -1.47%E -0.326%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 19:00
Coolbet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.15%EV -4.59%E -2.42%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.41%EV -2.56%E -0.576%K -0.742%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 18:58
Bovada1.85I 54.05%NM 50.81%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.12%EV -2.56%E -0.576%K -0.742%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 18:46
Everygame1.85I 54.05%NM 50.69%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -3.66%E -0.831%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 18:59
BetUS1.86I 53.76%NM 50.34%EV -6.60%E -3.55%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -3.66%E -0.831%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 18:57
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -3.66%E -0.831%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 19:00
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -3.66%E -0.831%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 19:00
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -5.85%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 19:00
Codere (IT)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -5.85%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 19:00
Marathon Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 50.70%EV -7.61%E -4.13%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -5.85%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -5.73%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 19:00
DraftKings1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -5.85%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 19:00
Unibet (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -6.94%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 18:59
PointsBet (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.70%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -6.94%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 18:59
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 19:00
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 18:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 19:00
Bet Victor1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -6.10%E -3.26%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 18:59
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -8.11%E -4.43%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 18:59
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -13.54%E -4.37%K -6.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 18:59
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -13.54%E -4.37%K -6.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 18:59
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -13.54%E -4.37%K -6.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 19:00
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -8.04%E -1.91%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -13.54%E -4.37%K -6.45%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-12 19:00
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.65%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -9.13%E -2.20%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 19:00
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 49.65%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -9.13%E -2.20%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.25%EV -4.59%E -2.42%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 18:58
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 49.25%EV -4.59%E -2.42%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 18:59
Bet Right1.88I 53.19%NM 49.51%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 18:59
Betr (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -5.60%E -2.98%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 18:59
Unibet (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 50.74%EV -11.62%E -6.60%K -15.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.78%EV -10.22%E -2.49%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -9.36%E -2.88%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-12 18:59
Betclic (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.19%EV -10.62%E -5.97%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.06%EV -11.32%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.75%EV -10.20%E -3.17%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 19:00
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -4.09%E -2.14%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.18%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 18:59
PlayUp1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -4.59%E -2.42%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.97%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 19:00
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -7.10%E -3.84%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.75%E -3.36%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-12 19:00
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.32%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 19:00
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -9.61%E -5.34%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -12.41%E -3.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -13.54%E -4.37%K -6.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-12 19:00
Fliff1.69I 59.17%NM 50.91%EV -15.14%E -8.96%K -21.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.78%EV -13.51%E -3.42%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.31%EV -12.15%E -3.86%K -5.65%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 50.18%EV -11.62%E -6.60%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -14.60%E -3.74%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -9.36%E -2.88%K -4.16%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 48.50%EV -13.13%E -7.59%K -17.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.37%EV -17.89%E -4.77%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.13%EV -19.68%E -6.83%K -10.47%G +0.000%19.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.68%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.80%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.52%0.2%2026-04-12 19:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.45%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.15%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-04-12 19:00
Matchbook1.98I 50.51%NM 50.12%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-04-12 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.77%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.71%1.0%2026-04-12 19:00
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 49.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.65%2.7%2026-04-12 19:00
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.72%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.31%6.1%2026-04-12 19:00