Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense

Inicio: 2026-08-24 23:00 UTC

Final: Botafogo 2–3 Atletico Paranaense

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Botafogo (Local)

Predicción 39.53%2.53momio equitativo
EV -1.18%
Ventaja -0.473%
Kelly -0.788%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.84%39.65%39.56%41.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.352.352.5045.45%42.63%42.55%40.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atletico Paranaense (Visitante)

Predicción 31.45%3.18momio equitativo
EV +0.012%
Ventaja +0.004%
Kelly +0.005%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.60%31.39%31.40%33.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.962.923.1836.36%33.84%34.19%31.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.02%3.45momio equitativo
EV +1.000%
Ventaja +0.287%
Kelly +0.403%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.48

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.69%28.96%29.04%29.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.193.203.4833.33%31.38%31.25%28.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Botafogo (Local): 39.53%; Atletico Paranaense (Visitante): 31.45%; Empate: 29.02%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.45. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.48, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.000%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84%EV -1.18%E -0.473%K -0.788%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.25%EV -8.17%E -2.80%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.90%EV +1.000%E +0.287%K +0.403%G +0.004%3.0%2026-08-24 22:54
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.67%EV -5.93%E -2.49%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -1.32%E -0.389%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-24 22:54
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -1.32%E -0.389%K -0.551%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 22:43
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.80%EV -3.95%E -1.63%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.90%EV -1.56%E -0.499%K -0.733%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.31%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-24 22:45
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.08%EV -3.16%E -1.29%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.91%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.01%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-24 22:14
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -7.11%E -3.03%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-24 22:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -7.11%E -3.03%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-24 22:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.91%EV -4.34%E -1.80%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.37%EV +0.012%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.72%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-24 22:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.91%EV -4.34%E -1.80%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.37%EV +0.012%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.72%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-24 22:39
BetAnything🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.91%EV -4.34%E -1.80%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.37%EV +0.012%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.72%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-24 22:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.50%EV -3.95%E -1.63%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -2.50%E -0.808%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-24 22:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.50%EV -3.95%E -1.63%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -2.50%E -0.808%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-24 22:39
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.60%EV -5.14%E -2.14%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -4.08%E -1.34%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.24%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-24 22:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18%EV -5.14%E -2.14%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -7.22%E -2.45%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-24 22:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -5.14%E -2.14%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-24 22:39
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -5.93%E -2.49%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-24 22:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -7.11%E -3.03%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-24 22:39
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-24 22:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -11.94%E -4.26%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -5.68%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-24 22:35
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.42%EV -5.14%E -2.14%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.02%EV -4.08%E -1.34%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-24 22:35
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.14%E -2.14%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-24 22:39
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.14%E -2.14%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-24 22:35
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -7.11%E -3.03%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-24 22:34
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -7.11%E -3.03%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-24 22:38
GTbets🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.02%EV -5.53%E -2.31%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.83%EV -7.85%E -2.68%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 19:09
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -7.11%E -3.03%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-24 22:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -13.04%E -5.93%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -2.50%E -0.808%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-24 22:35
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 22:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 22:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 22:54
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 22:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -5.93%E -2.49%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-24 22:39
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -5.93%E -2.49%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-24 22:39
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -5.93%E -2.49%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-24 22:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -5.93%E -2.49%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-24 22:39
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -5.93%E -2.49%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-24 22:39
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -5.93%E -2.49%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-24 22:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.52%EV -6.72%E -2.85%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.88%EV -5.02%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 22:54
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -7.11%E -3.03%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -7.22%E -2.45%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-24 22:35
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -7.11%E -3.03%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -7.22%E -2.45%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-24 22:35
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -5.65%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-24 22:53
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.49%EV -11.06%E -4.92%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -13.51%E -4.91%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-24 22:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 39.66%EV -10.27%E -4.53%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.59%EV -10.37%E -3.64%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.76%EV -9.16%E -2.93%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-24 22:37
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -11.06%E -4.92%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -10.03%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-24 22:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -11.06%E -4.92%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -11.94%E -4.26%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.03%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-24 22:39
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.05%EV -8.30%E -3.58%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.71%EV -11.48%E -3.76%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-24 22:39
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.26%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -11.48%E -3.76%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-24 22:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.17%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.28%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -11.48%E -3.76%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-24 22:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.17%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.28%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -11.48%E -3.76%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-24 22:39
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-24 22:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -9.09%E -3.95%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-24 22:49
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -11.06%E -4.92%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-24 22:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.38%EV -11.06%E -4.92%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.37%E -3.64%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-24 22:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.38%EV -11.06%E -4.92%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.37%E -3.64%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-24 22:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.37%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.77%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.85%-0.0%2026-08-24 22:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-08-24 22:54
Smarkets◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.01%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-08-24 22:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.01%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-08-24 22:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.56%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-08-24 22:55
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.18%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.1%2026-08-24 22:54