L’École des cotes

Bahia v Grêmio

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 19:00 UTC

Score final : Bahia 1–1 Grêmio

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Bahia (Local)

Prévision 56.30%1.78cote équitable
EV -3.16%
Avantage -1.84%
Kelly -4.39%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.72

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.59%56.27%56.33%58.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.571.651.651.7263.69%60.54%60.61%58.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Grêmio (Visiteur)

Prévision 19.45%5.14cote équitable
EV +4.23%
Avantage +0.789%
Kelly +0.970%
Croissance +0.041%

avec la cote maximale 5.36

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.09%19.45%19.41%21.01%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.204.844.905.3623.81%20.67%20.41%18.66%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.25%4.12cote équitable
EV -1.29%
Avantage -0.317%
Kelly -0.420%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.07

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.68%24.28%24.26%26.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.253.803.804.0730.77%26.33%26.32%24.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.67I 59.88%NM 58.08%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 18.09%EV +4.23%E +0.789%K +0.970%G +0.041%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.83%EV -1.29%E -0.317%K -0.420%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-17 18:55
Svenska Spel1.72I 58.14%NM 56.62%EV -3.16%E -1.84%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.73%EV +1.12%E +0.215%K +0.266%G +0.003%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.65%EV -4.20%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-17 18:40
ATG (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 56.62%EV -3.16%E -1.84%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.73%EV +1.12%E +0.215%K +0.266%G +0.003%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.65%EV -4.20%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-17 18:40
Pinnacle1.68I 59.52%NM 57.37%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.71%EV +0.147%E +0.029%K +0.035%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.92%EV -2.26%E -0.561%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-17 18:50
betPARX1.64I 60.98%NM 57.22%EV -7.67%E -4.67%K -11.98%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -0.825%E -0.162%K -0.201%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:55
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -9.36%E -5.81%K -15.34%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -0.825%E -0.162%K -0.201%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 18:25
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 17:25
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 18:25
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 17:40
Bovada1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 18:55
Unibet (NL)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:40
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:36
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:40
Casumo1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:36
Unibet (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:36
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 56.86%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:55
BetRivers1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 18:40
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 18:55
BetUS1.66I 60.24%NM 56.61%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.98%EV -3.74%E -0.756%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.41%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 18:55
BetAnything1.66I 60.24%NM 56.61%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.98%EV -3.74%E -0.756%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.41%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 18:55
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -3.74%E -0.756%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 17:25
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -3.74%E -0.756%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 17:25
Marathon Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 56.87%EV -7.67%E -4.67%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.84%EV -3.74%E -0.756%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -6.87%E -1.79%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 18:50
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.35%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.36%EV -4.33%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.29%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 18:20
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.35%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.36%EV -4.33%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.29%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 18:20
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 56.70%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -4.71%E -0.962%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -4.20%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.43%EV -7.67%E -4.67%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV -4.71%E -0.962%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 18:35
LeoVegas1.63I 61.35%NM 56.58%EV -8.23%E -5.05%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -4.71%E -0.962%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 18:40
GTbets1.71I 58.48%NM 55.57%EV -3.73%E -2.18%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.43%EV -4.91%E -1.00%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 18:55
888sport1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 18:55
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 18:55
888sport (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 18:55
PMU (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -9.36%E -5.81%K -15.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 18:35
TABtouch1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -9.36%E -5.81%K -15.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 18:35
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 56.44%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -11.48%E -3.14%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-17 18:36
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 56.44%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -11.48%E -3.14%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-17 18:40
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.09%EV -4.29%E -2.52%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.99%E -0.747%K -0.996%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 17:24
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -2.99%E -0.747%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 17:25
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 17:25
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 17:25
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 17:25
William Hill1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 18:55
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 17:23
Codere (IT)1.69I 59.17%NM 55.78%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -8.60%E -1.83%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.17%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 17:25
Betr (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -10.55%E -2.29%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 17:25
Bet Right1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -10.55%E -2.29%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 17:25
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 55.30%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -10.55%E -2.29%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 17:25
Sky Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -10.55%E -2.29%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.69%E -3.52%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 18:25
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -4.29%E -2.52%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -12.49%E -2.78%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 17:25
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -8.79%E -5.43%K -14.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -12.49%E -2.78%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 17:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.59%EV -11.61%E -7.39%K -20.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.04%EV -12.49%E -2.78%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37%EV -21.18%E -6.52%K -9.41%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-17 18:25
Betclic (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 55.58%EV -9.36%E -5.81%K -15.34%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.11%EV -13.47%E -3.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.32%EV -10.75%E -2.92%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-17 18:35
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.60%EV -7.67%E -4.67%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -14.44%E -3.28%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 17:25
Unibet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 55.33%EV -11.61%E -7.39%K -20.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.20%EV -16.38%E -3.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.47%EV -13.90%E -3.92%K -5.45%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-17 18:30
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 55.15%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -18.33%E -4.36%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-17 17:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.71I 58.48%NM 58.21%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-05-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.73%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%0.7%2026-05-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.73%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%0.7%2026-05-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.73%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%0.7%2026-05-17 18:55
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.80%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-05-17 18:15
Smarkets1.71I 58.48%NM 57.68%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.06%1.4%2026-05-17 18:55