La escuela de los momios

Bahia v Grêmio

Inicio: 2026-05-17 19:00 UTC

Final: Bahia 1–1 Grêmio

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Bahia (Local)

Predicción 56.30%1.78momio equitativo
EV -3.16%
Ventaja -1.84%
Kelly -4.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.59%56.27%56.33%58.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.571.651.651.7263.69%60.54%60.61%58.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Grêmio (Visitante)

Predicción 19.45%5.14momio equitativo
EV +4.23%
Ventaja +0.789%
Kelly +0.970%
Crecimiento +0.041%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.09%19.45%19.41%21.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.204.844.905.3623.81%20.67%20.41%18.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.25%4.12momio equitativo
EV -1.29%
Ventaja -0.317%
Kelly -0.420%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.68%24.28%24.26%26.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.253.803.804.0730.77%26.33%26.32%24.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.67I 59.88%NM 58.08%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 18.09%EV +4.23%E +0.789%K +0.970%G +0.041%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.83%EV -1.29%E -0.317%K -0.420%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-17 18:55
Svenska Spel1.72I 58.14%NM 56.62%EV -3.16%E -1.84%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.73%EV +1.12%E +0.215%K +0.266%G +0.003%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.65%EV -4.20%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-17 18:40
ATG (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 56.62%EV -3.16%E -1.84%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.73%EV +1.12%E +0.215%K +0.266%G +0.003%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.65%EV -4.20%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-17 18:40
Pinnacle1.68I 59.52%NM 57.37%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.71%EV +0.147%E +0.029%K +0.035%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.92%EV -2.26%E -0.561%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-17 18:50
betPARX1.64I 60.98%NM 57.22%EV -7.67%E -4.67%K -11.98%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -0.825%E -0.162%K -0.201%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:55
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -9.36%E -5.81%K -15.34%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -0.825%E -0.162%K -0.201%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 18:25
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 17:25
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 18:25
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 17:40
Bovada1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 18:55
Unibet (NL)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:40
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:36
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:40
Casumo1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:36
Unibet (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:36
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 56.86%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:55
BetRivers1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 18:40
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -2.77%E -0.554%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 18:55
BetUS1.66I 60.24%NM 56.61%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.98%EV -3.74%E -0.756%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.41%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 18:55
BetAnything1.66I 60.24%NM 56.61%EV -6.54%E -3.94%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.98%EV -3.74%E -0.756%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.41%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 18:55
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -3.74%E -0.756%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 17:25
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -3.74%E -0.756%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 17:25
Marathon Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 56.87%EV -7.67%E -4.67%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.84%EV -3.74%E -0.756%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -6.87%E -1.79%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 18:50
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.35%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.36%EV -4.33%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.29%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 18:20
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.35%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.36%EV -4.33%E -0.879%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.29%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 18:20
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 56.70%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -4.71%E -0.962%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -4.20%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.43%EV -7.67%E -4.67%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV -4.71%E -0.962%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 18:35
LeoVegas1.63I 61.35%NM 56.58%EV -8.23%E -5.05%K -13.06%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -4.71%E -0.962%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 18:40
GTbets1.71I 58.48%NM 55.57%EV -3.73%E -2.18%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.43%EV -4.91%E -1.00%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 18:55
888sport1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 18:55
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 18:55
888sport (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.88%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 18:55
PMU (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -9.36%E -5.81%K -15.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 18:35
TABtouch1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -9.36%E -5.81%K -15.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 18:35
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 56.44%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -11.48%E -3.14%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-17 18:36
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 56.44%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -6.66%E -1.39%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -11.48%E -3.14%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-17 18:40
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.09%EV -4.29%E -2.52%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.07%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.99%E -0.747%K -0.996%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 17:24
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -2.99%E -0.747%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 17:25
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 17:25
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 17:25
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 17:25
William Hill1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -7.10%E -4.31%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 18:55
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -7.63%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 17:23
Codere (IT)1.69I 59.17%NM 55.78%EV -4.85%E -2.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -8.60%E -1.83%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.17%EV -5.41%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 17:25
Betr (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -5.41%E -3.22%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -10.55%E -2.29%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 17:25
Bet Right1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -10.55%E -2.29%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 17:25
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 55.30%EV -5.98%E -3.58%K -8.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -10.55%E -2.29%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 17:25
Sky Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -10.55%E -2.29%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -12.69%E -3.52%K -4.88%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 18:25
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -4.29%E -2.52%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -12.49%E -2.78%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.84%E -2.06%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 17:25
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -8.79%E -5.43%K -14.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -12.49%E -2.78%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -9.05%E -2.41%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 17:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.59%EV -11.61%E -7.39%K -20.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.04%EV -12.49%E -2.78%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37%EV -21.18%E -6.52%K -9.41%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-17 18:25
Betclic (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 55.58%EV -9.36%E -5.81%K -15.34%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.11%EV -13.47%E -3.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.32%EV -10.75%E -2.92%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-17 18:35
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.60%EV -7.67%E -4.67%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -14.44%E -3.28%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -6.62%E -1.72%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 17:25
Unibet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 55.33%EV -11.61%E -7.39%K -20.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.20%EV -16.38%E -3.81%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.47%EV -13.90%E -3.92%K -5.45%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-17 18:30
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 55.15%EV -9.92%E -6.20%K -16.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -18.33%E -4.36%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -10.26%E -2.77%K -3.80%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-17 17:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.71I 58.48%NM 58.21%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.70%0.5%2026-05-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.73%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%0.7%2026-05-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.73%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%0.7%2026-05-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.73%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%0.7%2026-05-17 18:55
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.80%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-05-17 18:15
Smarkets1.71I 58.48%NM 57.68%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.06%1.4%2026-05-17 18:55