La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Bahia v Chapecoense
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Bahia (Local)
Predicción 59.68%1.68momio equitativo
EV -3.92%
Ventaja -2.44%
Kelly -6.43%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.99%59.64%59.57%61.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.441.551.551.6169.44%64.61%64.52%62.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Chapecoense (Visitante)
Predicción 16.13%6.20momio equitativo
EV +0.840%
Ventaja +0.134%
Kelly +0.160%
Crecimiento +0.001%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.27%16.14%16.18%17.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.005.735.756.2520.00%17.46%17.39%16.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 24.19%4.13momio equitativo
EV -3.24%
Ventaja -0.810%
Kelly -1.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.27%24.22%24.25%25.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.783.804.0030.30%26.43%26.32%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.84%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.28%EV +0.840%E +0.134%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.88%EV -3.24%E -0.810%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-20 05:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.84%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.28%EV +0.840%E +0.134%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.88%EV -3.24%E -0.810%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-20 05:50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.07%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.27%EV +0.033%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -3.24%E -0.810%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-23 06:10 |
| GTbets | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.56%EV -6.91%E -4.43%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 6.16I 16.23%NM 15.34%EV -0.612%E -0.099%K -0.119%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.10%EV -5.18%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-22 22:15 |
| Casumo | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.55%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.39%EV -1.58%E -0.259%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.55%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.39%EV -1.58%E -0.259%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Grosvenor | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.55%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.39%EV -1.58%E -0.259%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Unibet | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.55%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.39%EV -1.58%E -0.259%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.55%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.39%EV -1.58%E -0.259%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| betPARX | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.55%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.39%EV -1.58%E -0.259%K -0.310%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-20 05:50 |
| Coolbet | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.19%E -0.532%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -6.87%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -3.19%E -0.532%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -3.24%E -0.810%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-22 18:04 |
| SportsBet | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.71%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.19%E -0.532%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| BetRivers | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.39%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -3.19%E -0.532%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.52%EV -8.70%E -5.68%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -3.19%E -0.532%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -6.87%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.83%EV -9.89%E -6.55%K -19.39%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -3.19%E -0.532%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -6.87%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-20 13:20 |
| FanDuel | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.17%EV -8.70%E -5.68%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.60%EV -4.81%E -0.815%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-20 05:38 |
| TABtouch | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.48%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.64%EV -6.42%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.45%EV -11.08%E -7.44%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -6.42%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.45%EV -11.08%E -7.44%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -6.42%E -1.11%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| BetMGM | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.07%EV -3.92%E -2.44%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV -7.23%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.39%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Fanatics | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -5.12%E -3.22%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -7.23%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -3.24%E -0.810%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Coral | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.22%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -7.23%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.66%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-20 05:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -7.23%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Bet Right | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -5.71%E -3.62%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.20%EV -7.23%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Betway | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.23%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -8.08%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-20 12:15 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.76%EV -5.71%E -3.62%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -7.23%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -10.50%E -2.84%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -7.23%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-20 21:21 |
| Neds | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.65%E -1.72%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.40%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.65%E -1.72%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| 888sport | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.26%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.92%E -3.59%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| William Hill | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.26%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.92%E -3.59%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.26%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.92%E -3.59%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-20 05:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.26%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.92%E -3.59%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-20 05:49 |
| BoyleSports | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -8.70%E -5.68%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -11.26%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.11%EV -8.70%E -5.68%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -11.26%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -10.50%E -2.84%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-02-22 21:15 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 60.04%EV -12.87%E -8.82%K -27.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.94%EV -11.26%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.02%EV -11.71%E -3.21%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-02-22 02:49 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 60.04%EV -12.87%E -8.82%K -27.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.94%EV -11.26%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.02%EV -11.71%E -3.21%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-02-22 02:50 |
| NordicBet | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.08%EV -5.71%E -3.62%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -12.87%E -2.38%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -4.45%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-23 01:54 |
| Betsson | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.08%EV -5.71%E -3.62%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -12.87%E -2.38%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -4.45%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-23 01:54 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.13%EV -11.08%E -7.44%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.59%EV -12.87%E -2.38%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.27%EV -6.87%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-02-23 05:14 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.41%EV -14.07%E -9.77%K -31.97%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.14%EV -14.49%E -2.73%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.44%EV -15.34%E -4.38%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 16.9% | 2026-02-22 03:04 |
| PlayUp | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.06%EV -5.71%E -3.62%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -15.29%E -2.91%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -9.29%E -2.48%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-20 17:56 |
| Sky Bet | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.85%EV -8.70%E -5.68%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.86%EV -15.29%E -2.91%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.29%EV -15.34%E -4.38%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-02-22 21:04 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.02%EV -14.07%E -9.77%K -31.97%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.34%EV -16.10%E -3.10%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 24.63%EV -16.55%E -4.80%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 17.7% | 2026-02-23 21:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 59.30%EV -12.87%E -8.82%K -27.98%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 16.98%EV -17.71%E -3.47%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.72%EV -11.71%E -3.21%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-02-23 05:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.50I 66.67%NM 56.99%EV -10.49%E -6.99%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.10%EV -19.33%E -3.87%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.91%EV -20.17%E -6.11%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-02-22 21:04 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99% | 191.3% | 2026-02-23 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99% | 191.3% | 2026-02-23 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99% | 191.3% | 2026-02-23 22:25 |