Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense v Internacional

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 21:30 UTC

Final: Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Internacional

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 47.53%2.10fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.14%47.51%47.60%48.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.951.952.0454.35%51.22%51.28%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Internacional (Visit)

Prediction 23.69%4.22fair odd
EV +6.59%
Edge +1.46%
Kelly +1.88%
Growth +0.124%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.45%23.67%23.62%25.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.024.004.5027.78%24.88%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.78%3.47fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.714%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.82%28.82%28.78%29.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.203.3933.33%31.20%31.25%29.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 47.53%; Internacional (Visit): 23.69%; Draw: 28.78%. For Internacional (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.22. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.55%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV +6.59%E +1.46%K +1.88%G +0.124%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.88%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-25 20:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.55%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV +6.59%E +1.46%K +1.88%G +0.124%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.88%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-25 20:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.76%EV -8.75%E -4.56%K -9.51%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.52%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-25 20:55
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.77%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV +1.85%E +0.431%K +0.562%G +0.010%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-25 20:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.80%EV -10.17%E -5.38%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV +1.85%E +0.431%K +0.562%G +0.010%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-25 20:55
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.96%EV -0.040%E -0.010%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.59%EV -2.42%E -0.714%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-25 21:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.58%EV -11.12%E -5.95%K -12.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -0.514%E -0.122%K -0.161%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -12.21%E -4.00%K -5.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 20:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.58%EV -11.12%E -5.95%K -12.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -0.514%E -0.122%K -0.161%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -12.21%E -4.00%K -5.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 20:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.58%EV -11.12%E -5.95%K -12.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -0.514%E -0.122%K -0.161%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -12.21%E -4.00%K -5.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 20:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.62%EV -3.52%E -1.73%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.52%EV -2.65%E -0.644%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -3.57%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-25 21:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.62%EV -3.52%E -1.73%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.52%EV -2.65%E -0.644%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -3.57%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-25 21:20
BetAnything🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.62%EV -3.52%E -1.73%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.52%EV -2.65%E -0.644%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -3.57%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-25 21:20
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.43%EV -3.04%E -1.49%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.60%EV -2.88%E -0.703%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.97%EV -3.86%E -1.16%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-25 21:20
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.88%E -0.703%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 21:05
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.88%E -0.703%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 19:00
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.25%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.23%EV -4.07%E -1.00%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 21:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -7.80%E -4.02%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.05%EV -4.07%E -1.00%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.82%EV -6.74%E -2.08%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-25 19:10
GTbets🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.38%EV -5.42%E -2.72%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.51%EV -5.01%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.10%EV -6.74%E -2.08%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-22 13:29
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.69%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -3.57%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-25 21:01
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.40%EV -5.42%E -2.72%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.02%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 06:15
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 21:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.52%EV -5.89%E -2.98%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 06:10
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 21:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -9.70%E -5.10%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-25 20:30
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-25 21:05
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-25 21:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.62%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-25 20:50
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 20:35
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 20:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 20:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 20:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-25 21:15
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.33%EV -9.70%E -5.10%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -8.80%E -2.29%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-25 20:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.50%EV -12.55%E -6.82%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.18%EV -8.80%E -2.29%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.33%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-25 21:05
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 21:10
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 21:10
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 21:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-25 20:50
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-25 17:59
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-25 21:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.59%EV -10.17%E -5.38%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.74%EV -9.90%E -3.16%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-25 21:04
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -11.17%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 20:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.56%EV -8.75%E -4.56%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -11.17%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-25 06:10
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -11.17%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -13.65%E -4.55%K -6.82%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-25 21:05
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -3.99%E -1.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -12.36%E -3.34%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 21:20
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -3.99%E -1.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -12.36%E -3.34%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 21:20
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -12.36%E -3.34%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-25 21:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.24%EV -11.60%E -6.24%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -14.73%E -4.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-25 06:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.68%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.35%0.2%2026-07-25 21:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.7%2026-07-25 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.7%2026-07-25 21:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.7%2026-07-25 21:05
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 47.51%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.50%1.2%2026-07-25 21:05
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-07-25 20:25