La escuela de los momios

Atletico Paranaense v Internacional

Inicio: 2026-07-25 21:30 UTC

Final: Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Internacional

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Predicción 47.53%2.10momio equitativo
EV -3.04%
Ventaja -1.49%
Kelly -2.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.04

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.14%47.51%47.60%48.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.841.951.952.0454.35%51.22%51.28%49.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Internacional (Visitante)

Predicción 23.69%4.22momio equitativo
EV +6.59%
Ventaja +1.46%
Kelly +1.88%
Crecimiento +0.124%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.45%23.67%23.62%25.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.024.004.5027.78%24.88%25.00%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.78%3.47momio equitativo
EV -2.42%
Ventaja -0.714%
Kelly -1.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.39

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.82%28.82%28.78%29.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.213.203.3933.33%31.20%31.25%29.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel2.00I 50.00%NM 48.55%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV +6.59%E +1.46%K +1.88%G +0.124%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.88%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-25 20:55
ATG (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.55%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV +6.59%E +1.46%K +1.88%G +0.124%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.88%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-25 20:55
Unibet (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
Unibet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
Unibet (NL)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
Casumo1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
betPARX1.93I 51.81%NM 48.63%EV -8.27%E -4.29%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 20:55
BetRivers1.92I 52.08%NM 48.76%EV -8.75%E -4.56%K -9.51%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.52%EV +3.04%E +0.699%K +0.907%G +0.028%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-25 20:55
TABtouch1.91I 52.36%NM 48.77%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV +1.85%E +0.431%K +0.562%G +0.010%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.57%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-25 20:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 48.80%EV -10.17%E -5.38%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV +1.85%E +0.431%K +0.562%G +0.010%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-25 20:55
1xBet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.96%EV -0.040%E -0.010%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.59%EV -2.42%E -0.714%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-25 21:19
PMU (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.58%EV -11.12%E -5.95%K -12.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -0.514%E -0.122%K -0.161%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -12.21%E -4.00%K -5.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 20:55
LiveScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 48.58%EV -11.12%E -5.95%K -12.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -0.514%E -0.122%K -0.161%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -12.21%E -4.00%K -5.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 20:55
Virgin Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 48.58%EV -11.12%E -5.95%K -12.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -0.514%E -0.122%K -0.161%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -12.21%E -4.00%K -5.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 20:55
LowVig.ag2.03I 49.26%NM 47.62%EV -3.52%E -1.73%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.52%EV -2.65%E -0.644%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -3.57%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-25 21:20
BetOnline.ag2.03I 49.26%NM 47.62%EV -3.52%E -1.73%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.52%EV -2.65%E -0.644%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -3.57%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-25 21:20
BetAnything2.03I 49.26%NM 47.62%EV -3.52%E -1.73%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.52%EV -2.65%E -0.644%K -0.851%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -3.57%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-25 21:20
Pinnacle2.04I 49.02%NM 47.43%EV -3.04%E -1.49%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.60%EV -2.88%E -0.703%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.97%EV -3.86%E -1.16%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-25 21:20
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.88%E -0.703%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 21:05
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.88%E -0.703%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 19:00
BetUS1.95I 51.28%NM 48.25%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.23%EV -4.07%E -1.00%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 21:20
Marathon Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -7.80%E -4.02%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.05%EV -4.07%E -1.00%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.82%EV -6.74%E -2.08%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-25 19:10
GTbets1.99I 50.25%NM 47.38%EV -5.42%E -2.72%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.51%EV -5.01%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.10%EV -6.74%E -2.08%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-22 13:29
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 47.69%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -3.57%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-25 21:01
Codere (IT)1.99I 50.25%NM 47.40%EV -5.42%E -2.72%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.02%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 06:15
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 21:04
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.52%EV -5.89%E -2.98%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 06:10
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 21:20
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -9.70%E -5.10%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -5.25%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-25 20:30
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-25 21:05
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-25 21:25
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.62%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-25 20:50
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 20:35
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 20:35
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 20:35
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 20:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -7.62%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-25 21:15
Bet Right1.90I 52.63%NM 48.33%EV -9.70%E -5.10%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -8.80%E -2.29%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-25 20:50
Unibet (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 48.50%EV -12.55%E -6.82%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.18%EV -8.80%E -2.29%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.33%EV -9.33%E -2.96%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-25 21:05
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 21:10
betano_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-25 21:10
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -5.01%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 21:04
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-25 20:50
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-25 17:59
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-25 21:05
Betclic (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 47.59%EV -10.17%E -5.38%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -9.99%E -2.63%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.74%EV -9.90%E -3.16%K -4.65%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-25 21:04
betfred_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.32%E -3.75%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -11.17%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 20:10
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 47.56%EV -8.75%E -4.56%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -11.17%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-25 06:10
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -9.22%E -4.83%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -11.17%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -13.65%E -4.55%K -6.82%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-25 21:05
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -3.99%E -1.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -12.36%E -3.34%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 21:20
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -3.99%E -1.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -12.36%E -3.34%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.45%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 21:20
PlayUp2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -4.94%E -2.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -12.36%E -3.34%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.89%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-25 21:20
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 47.24%EV -11.60%E -6.24%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -14.73%E -4.09%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -10.77%E -3.47%K -5.13%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-25 06:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.68%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.35%0.2%2026-07-25 21:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.7%2026-07-25 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.7%2026-07-25 21:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.7%2026-07-25 21:05
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 47.51%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.50%1.2%2026-07-25 21:05
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-07-25 20:25