Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense v Cruzeiro

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 43.34%2.31fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.909%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.75%43.28%43.18%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.142.152.2652.63%46.82%46.51%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cruzeiro (Visit)

Prediction 27.23%3.67fair odd
EV +5.66%
Edge +1.46%
Kelly +1.97%
Growth +0.111%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%27.27%27.34%29.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.383.403.8832.26%29.59%29.41%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.43%3.40fair odd
EV +0.059%
Edge +0.017%
Kelly +0.025%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.12%29.45%29.48%30.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.163.203.4035.71%31.62%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 43.34%; Cruzeiro (Visit): 27.23%; Draw: 29.43%. For Cruzeiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.67. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.33%EV -7.25%E -3.39%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.00%EV +5.66%E +1.46%K +1.97%G +0.111%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.67%EV -3.77%E -1.15%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-18 22:25
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.59%EV -3.79%E -1.71%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.73%EV -1.42%E -0.392%K -0.542%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.68%EV -4.06%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-18 22:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.92%EV -5.95%E -2.74%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -1.96%E -0.546%K -0.756%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.60%EV -5.24%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-18 22:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.92%EV -5.95%E -2.74%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -1.96%E -0.546%K -0.756%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.60%EV -5.24%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-18 22:15
BetAnything🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.92%EV -5.95%E -2.74%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -1.96%E -0.546%K -0.756%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.60%EV -5.24%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-18 22:15
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -6.82%E -3.17%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -1.96%E -0.546%K -0.756%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-18 22:20
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.96%E -0.546%K -0.756%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-18 22:15
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -1.96%E -0.546%K -0.756%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-18 22:20
Bovada🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.82%EV -7.25%E -3.39%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -3.33%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.77%EV -7.30%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-18 22:18
GTbets🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.25%EV -3.79%E -1.71%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.20%EV -3.87%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.55%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-18 22:25
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-18 22:24
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -7.30%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-18 22:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-18 22:10
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-18 22:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-18 22:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-18 22:25
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -11.16%E -5.44%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-18 22:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.82%EV -7.69%E -3.61%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.82%EV -5.23%E -1.50%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -6.42%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-18 22:20
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.65%E -2.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-18 22:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -5.09%E -2.32%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-18 22:20
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -5.52%E -2.53%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -10.24%E -3.36%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-18 22:15
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -5.52%E -2.53%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -10.24%E -3.36%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-18 22:15
Coolbet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.16%EV -2.05%E -0.909%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.70%EV -6.32%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.15%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 08:55
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.82%E -3.17%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -2.88%E -0.874%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-18 22:20
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.65%E -2.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-18 22:24
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.82%E -3.17%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-18 22:15
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-18 22:20
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -11.16%E -5.44%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-18 22:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.86%EV -2.49%E -1.11%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.78%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.36%EV +0.059%E +0.017%K +0.025%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-18 22:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.86%EV -2.49%E -1.11%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.78%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.36%EV +0.059%E +0.017%K +0.025%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-18 22:20
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.82%E -3.17%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-18 22:20
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.01%EV -5.95%E -2.74%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-18 22:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -6.82%E -3.17%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-18 22:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -6.82%E -3.17%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-18 22:10
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-18 22:05
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -11.16%E -5.44%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -8.77%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-18 22:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.50%EV -11.16%E -5.44%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.27%EV -10.95%E -3.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -10.24%E -3.36%K -5.00%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-18 22:19
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.65%E -2.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.88%E -0.874%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-18 22:20
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.65%E -2.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.88%E -0.874%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-18 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.65%E -2.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.88%E -0.874%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-18 22:20
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.65%E -2.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.88%E -0.874%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-18 22:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.65%E -2.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.88%E -0.874%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-18 22:20
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.65%E -2.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -2.88%E -0.874%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-18 22:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -7.30%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-18 22:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.91%EV -13.32%E -6.66%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.02%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.08%EV -11.12%E -3.68%K -5.51%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-18 22:25
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.94%EV -13.76%E -6.91%K -13.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.91%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.15%EV -11.71%E -3.90%K -5.86%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-18 22:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -2.49%E -1.11%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -12.86%E -4.02%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-18 10:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.74%EV -6.39%E -2.96%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -12.86%E -4.02%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-18 22:20
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -6.82%E -3.17%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -12.86%E -4.02%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-18 22:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 44.01%EV -17.66%E -9.29%K -19.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.13%EV -12.86%E -4.02%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.86%EV -17.60%E -6.29%K -9.78%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-18 22:20
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -8.12%E -3.83%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -14.22%E -4.51%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-18 22:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.05%EV -11.16%E -5.44%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.02%EV -14.22%E -4.51%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -10.24%E -3.36%K -5.00%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-18 22:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -15.58%E -5.03%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-18 22:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -8.99%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -15.58%E -5.03%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -5.83%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-18 22:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -13.32%E -6.66%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -15.58%E -5.03%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -17.60%E -6.29%K -9.78%G +0.000%18.0%2026-03-18 22:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 44.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.73%0.4%2026-03-18 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.44%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%0.5%2026-03-18 22:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.44%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%0.5%2026-03-18 22:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-03-18 22:25
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 44.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70%2.0%2026-03-18 22:25