Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense v Botafogo

Kickoff: 2026-03-29 21:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 47.07%2.12fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.94%47.04%47.09%47.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.961.982.0555.56%51.02%50.51%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Botafogo (Visit)

Prediction 24.90%4.02fair odd
EV +2.08%
Edge +0.507%
Kelly +0.671%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.69%24.85%24.90%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.743.754.1029.85%26.71%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.03%3.57fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.542%
Kelly -0.759%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.18%28.11%28.01%29.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.263.273.5034.72%30.63%30.53%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 47.07%; Botafogo (Visit): 24.90%; Draw: 28.03%. For Botafogo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.67%EV -3.97%E -1.95%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%EV +2.08%E +0.507%K +0.671%G +0.014%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.60%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-27 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.67%EV -3.97%E -1.95%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%EV +2.08%E +0.507%K +0.671%G +0.014%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.60%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-27 17:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.87%EV -6.32%E -3.18%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -1.65%E -0.419%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-25 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.87%EV -6.32%E -3.18%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -1.65%E -0.419%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-25 19:25
BetAnything🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.87%EV -6.32%E -3.18%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -1.65%E -0.419%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-27 17:30
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -6.80%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -1.65%E -0.419%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-27 17:29
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.27%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -1.65%E -0.419%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 17:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.27%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -1.65%E -0.419%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 17:29
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.27%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -1.65%E -0.419%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 17:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.27%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -1.65%E -0.419%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 17:30
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.27%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -1.65%E -0.419%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.80%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 17:30
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.40%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -2.90%E -0.743%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -6.10%E -1.82%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-27 13:25
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -7.74%E -3.95%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -2.90%E -0.743%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-27 17:30
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.47%EV -3.15%E -0.809%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -6.10%E -1.82%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-27 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.39%EV -8.68%E -4.47%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -4.14%E -1.08%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-27 17:29
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.52%EV -9.15%E -4.74%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -4.14%E -1.08%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-27 17:30
1xBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.85%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.07%EV -4.64%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.08%EV -4.14%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-27 21:55
GTbets🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.63%EV -6.80%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.63%EV -4.64%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-23 00:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -5.39%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-27 11:04
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -5.39%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-27 14:00
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.21%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -5.39%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-27 21:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -8.21%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.39%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-27 16:05
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.42%EV -10.09%E -5.28%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -5.39%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -11.71%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-27 17:30
Coolbet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -1.90%E -0.542%K -0.759%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-26 15:40
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-18 14:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.19%EV -6.80%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -6.10%E -1.82%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-26 17:25
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -10.09%E -5.28%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-25 19:23
Virgin Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.53%EV -11.03%E -5.84%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -11.71%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-27 17:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.53%EV -11.03%E -5.84%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -6.63%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -11.71%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-27 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.85%EV -6.32%E -3.18%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.06%EV -7.38%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -6.94%E -2.09%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-27 21:50
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.10%E -1.82%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-27 13:00
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-18 14:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-26 15:45
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -6.80%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.10%E -1.82%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-25 19:25
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -6.80%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.10%E -1.82%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-25 19:24
Bet Right🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -6.80%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.10%E -1.82%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-26 15:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -8.21%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.88%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-26 15:45
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.85%EV -8.21%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -9.12%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.90%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-27 04:25
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.70%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-27 10:40
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.51%EV -6.80%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-25 19:24
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.21%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-24 21:35
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-26 15:39
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-26 15:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-26 15:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -5.85%E -2.93%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-26 15:39
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -10.09%E -5.28%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -10.37%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-27 21:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.20%EV -11.03%E -5.84%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.92%EV -10.87%E -3.04%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.88%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-27 22:33
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 47.97%EV -14.80%E -8.18%K -18.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.46%EV -11.61%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.57%EV -11.71%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-27 22:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 47.97%EV -14.80%E -8.18%K -18.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.46%EV -11.61%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.57%EV -11.71%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-27 22:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.20%EV -10.56%E -5.56%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.62%EV -12.86%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -7.50%E -2.27%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-27 16:10
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.21%E -4.21%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.86%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-27 09:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.94%EV -10.09%E -5.28%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.25%EV -15.35%E -4.51%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.81%EV -19.28%E -6.69%K -10.25%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-27 09:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 46.87%EV -13.39%E -7.27%K -15.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.75%EV -16.59%E -4.95%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.38%EV -11.71%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-27 16:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.00%EV -15.27%E -8.48%K -19.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.26%EV -16.59%E -4.95%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.74%EV -14.51%E -4.76%K -7.08%G +0.000%18.2%2026-03-27 21:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%1.5%2026-03-28 03:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.94%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%1.9%2026-03-28 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.19%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.94%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87%1.9%2026-03-28 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 46.77%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.61%2.8%2026-03-28 00:10
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 47.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.07%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.74%3.9%2026-03-28 03:05
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 44.51%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.66%8.0%2026-03-28 02:45