Language:English
Atletico Paranaense v Atletico Mineiro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atletico Paranaense (Local)
Prediction 45.38%2.20fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.26%45.43%45.32%46.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.042.052.1252.63%49.12%48.78%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Atletico Mineiro (Visit)
Prediction 25.90%3.86fair odd
EV +2.56%
Edge +0.646%
Kelly +0.865%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 3.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.09%25.77%26.00%27.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.623.603.9631.25%27.60%27.78%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.72%3.48fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.689%
Kelly -0.976%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.60%28.80%28.68%30.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.183.4033.33%31.37%31.45%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 45.38%; Atletico Mineiro (Visit): 25.90%; Draw: 28.72%. For Atletico Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.28%EV -3.80%E -1.79%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.24%EV +2.56%E +0.646%K +0.865%G +0.022% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.48%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-30 13:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.89%EV -3.80%E -1.79%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV +2.30%E +0.582%K +0.780%G +0.018% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.48%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.89%EV -3.80%E -1.79%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV +2.30%E +0.582%K +0.780%G +0.018% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.48%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.98%EV -6.07%E -2.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV +2.30%E +0.582%K +0.780%G +0.018% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.93%EV -8.66%E -2.72%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-04 15:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.98%EV -6.07%E -2.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV +2.30%E +0.582%K +0.780%G +0.018% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.93%EV -8.66%E -2.72%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-04 15:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.65%EV -5.16%E -2.47%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.53%EV +0.747%E +0.192%K +0.258%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-04 23:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.38%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.22%EV -0.548%E -0.143%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.40%EV -12.11%E -3.96%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-30 12:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.38%EV -5.61%E -2.70%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.04%EV -2.36%E -0.626%K -0.852%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.59%EV -8.37%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 00:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-05 11:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-05 11:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-05 09:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-05 09:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -11.51%E -5.90%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-04 17:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.20%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -5.47%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-05 11:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -5.47%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -2.34%E -0.689%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-05 14:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -2.34%E -0.689%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-05 05:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-05 06:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.61%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-05 09:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.96%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-04 17:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.96%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-04 17:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.96%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-04 17:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.96%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-04 17:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -13.83%E -4.61%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-02 23:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.60%EV -10.61%E -5.38%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.45%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-23 00:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.81%EV -5.16%E -2.47%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -8.06%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 14:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.34%E -0.689%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 14:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-04 17:13 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-04 17:13 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 00:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 14:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 00:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 26.35%EV -11.43%E -3.34%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.60%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-10-05 06:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-05 14:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-05 00:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -11.51%E -5.90%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-27 14:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.05%EV -13.78%E -7.25%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -10.96%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-10-05 06:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -14.53%E -4.40%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 44.94%EV -11.06%E -5.64%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.10%EV -15.83%E -4.87%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.96%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-10-05 06:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.26%EV -11.51%E -5.90%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.97%EV -17.12%E -5.35%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.77%EV -13.83%E -4.61%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-10-05 14:08 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.81% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.57% | 1.5% | 2026-10-05 04:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.66% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.67% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68% | 5.3% | 2026-10-05 13:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 44.12% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.61% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27% | 13.9% | 2026-10-05 06:25 |