Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense v Atletico Mineiro

2026-10-08 23:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 45.50%2.20fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.581%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.42%45.34%45.61%46.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.862.052.052.1753.76%48.85%48.78%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 25.59%3.91fair odd
EV +1.34%
Edge +0.339%
Kelly +0.454%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.09%25.77%25.57%28.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.613.603.9630.77%27.69%27.78%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.91%3.46fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.505%
Kelly -0.716%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.60%28.90%28.82%30.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.183.4033.33%31.35%31.45%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 45.50%; Atletico Mineiro (Visit): 25.59%; Draw: 28.91%. For Atletico Mineiro (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.96, producing a positive expected value of +1.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.28%EV -3.54%E -1.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.24%EV +1.34%E +0.339%K +0.454%G +0.006%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.48%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-30 13:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.89%EV -3.54%E -1.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV +1.09%E +0.275%K +0.369%G +0.004%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.48%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-02 23:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.89%EV -3.54%E -1.67%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV +1.09%E +0.275%K +0.369%G +0.004%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.48%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-02 23:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.98%EV -5.81%E -2.81%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV +1.09%E +0.275%K +0.369%G +0.004%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.93%EV -8.08%E -2.54%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.98%EV -5.81%E -2.81%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV +1.09%E +0.275%K +0.369%G +0.004%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.93%EV -8.08%E -2.54%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 15:14
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -4.45%E -2.12%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -1.47%E -0.382%K -0.516%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.94%EV -8.08%E -2.54%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 17:21
Marathon Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.38%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.22%EV -1.73%E -0.450%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.40%EV -11.55%E -3.77%K -5.61%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-30 12:59
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.75%E -0.724%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 17:15
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -2.75%E -0.724%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 17:26
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -2.75%E -0.724%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 17:21
GTbets🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.38%EV -5.36%E -2.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.04%EV -3.52%E -0.933%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.59%EV -7.79%E -2.44%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-02 00:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -4.03%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-01 01:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -5.31%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-03 23:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -11.27%E -5.78%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -5.31%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-04 17:20
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -8.09%E -4.00%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -6.59%E -1.81%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-02 23:40
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.87%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 17:15
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.87%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 17:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.87%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 17:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.87%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -7.87%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-02 23:40
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -7.87%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-02 23:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -7.87%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -11.84%E -3.88%K -5.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-02 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -7.87%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -13.28%E -4.43%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-02 23:40
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -5.36%E -2.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -9.15%E -2.58%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.05%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 23:40
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -5.36%E -2.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -9.15%E -2.58%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 23:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -11.27%E -5.78%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -9.15%E -2.58%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.42%EV -8.37%E -2.64%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-01 02:48
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -10.43%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 17:13
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -10.43%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 17:13
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.43%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-03 23:10
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -10.43%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-04 17:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 46.92%EV -15.37%E -8.26%K -17.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.93%EV -10.43%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.15%EV -10.39%E -3.35%K -4.95%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-04 23:04
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -1.26%E -0.581%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -12.99%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -1.72%E -0.505%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 22:55
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.17%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -12.99%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -1.72%E -0.505%K -0.716%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 22:55
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.45%E -2.12%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -12.99%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -1.72%E -0.505%K -0.716%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 22:55
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -11.27%E -5.78%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.99%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -6.05%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-27 14:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.94%EV -11.73%E -6.04%K -12.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -12.99%E -3.82%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -7.50%E -2.34%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-04 07:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.82%EV -12.64%E -6.58%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.26%EV -14.27%E -4.26%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.93%EV -8.95%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-04 07:04
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.17%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -15.55%E -4.71%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 22:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.17%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -15.55%E -4.71%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 22:49
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -4.45%E -2.12%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -15.55%E -4.71%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 22:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -4.45%E -2.12%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -15.55%E -4.71%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 23:04
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -15.55%E -4.71%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -4.61%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-04 22:55
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -4.45%E -2.12%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -16.83%E -5.18%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -6.05%E -1.86%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-04 22:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.35%3.92I 25.51%NM 25.10%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.55%1.6%2026-10-04 22:25
Matchbook◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.14%5.3%2026-10-04 21:40
Smarkets◎1.95I 51.28%NM 45.19%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.89%13.5%2026-10-01 23:05