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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Atletico Paranaense v Atletico Mineiro

Inicio: 2026-10-08 23:00 UTC

Final: Atletico Paranaense 2–2 Atletico Mineiro

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Predicción 45.38%2.20momio equitativo
EV -3.80%
Ventaja -1.79%
Kelly -3.39%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.12

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.26%45.43%45.32%46.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.902.042.052.1252.63%49.12%48.78%47.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atletico Mineiro (Visitante)

Predicción 25.90%3.86momio equitativo
EV +2.56%
Ventaja +0.646%
Kelly +0.865%
Crecimiento +0.022%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.09%25.77%26.00%27.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.623.603.9631.25%27.60%27.78%25.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.72%3.48momio equitativo
EV -2.34%
Ventaja -0.689%
Kelly -0.976%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.60%28.80%28.68%30.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.193.183.4033.33%31.37%31.45%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 45.38%; Atletico Mineiro (Visitante): 25.90%; Empate: 28.72%. Para Atletico Mineiro (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.86. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.96, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.56%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.28%EV -3.80%E -1.79%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.24%EV +2.56%E +0.646%K +0.865%G +0.022%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.48%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-30 13:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.89%EV -3.80%E -1.79%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV +2.30%E +0.582%K +0.780%G +0.018%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.48%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-02 23:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.89%EV -3.80%E -1.79%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV +2.30%E +0.582%K +0.780%G +0.018%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.48%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-02 23:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.98%EV -6.07%E -2.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV +2.30%E +0.582%K +0.780%G +0.018%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.93%EV -8.66%E -2.72%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.98%EV -6.07%E -2.93%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV +2.30%E +0.582%K +0.780%G +0.018%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.93%EV -8.66%E -2.72%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 15:14
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.65%EV -5.16%E -2.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.53%EV +0.747%E +0.192%K +0.258%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 23:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.38%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.22%EV -0.548%E -0.143%K -0.193%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.40%EV -12.11%E -3.96%K -5.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-30 12:59
GTbets🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.38%EV -5.61%E -2.70%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.04%EV -2.36%E -0.626%K -0.852%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.59%EV -8.37%E -2.62%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-02 00:09
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 11:44
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 23:40
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.88%E -0.768%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 11:45
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-05 09:25
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 09:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -11.51%E -5.90%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-04 17:20
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.20%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -5.47%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-05 11:40
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -5.47%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-02 23:40
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -2.34%E -0.689%K -0.976%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 14:04
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -2.34%E -0.689%K -0.976%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 14:05
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 05:20
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 06:10
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.61%EV -8.34%E -4.13%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-05 09:25
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.96%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 17:15
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.96%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 17:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.96%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 17:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.96%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-02 23:40
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-02 23:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-02 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -13.83%E -4.61%K -6.92%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-02 23:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.60%EV -10.61%E -5.38%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.45%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-23 00:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.81%EV -5.16%E -2.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -8.06%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 14:40
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.34%E -0.689%K -0.976%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-05 14:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -4.71%E -2.24%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 06:25
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 17:13
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 17:13
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-05 00:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-05 14:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-05 00:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-05 14:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.35%EV -11.43%E -3.34%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.60%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-05 06:24
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -6.97%E -3.40%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-05 14:05
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-05 00:54
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -11.51%E -5.90%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-27 14:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.05%EV -13.78%E -7.25%K -15.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.73%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -10.96%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-05 06:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.24%E -4.62%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -14.53%E -4.40%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -8.09%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-05 06:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.94%EV -11.06%E -5.64%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.10%EV -15.83%E -4.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.96%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-05 06:24
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.26%EV -11.51%E -5.90%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.97%EV -17.12%E -5.35%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.77%EV -13.83%E -4.61%K -6.92%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-05 14:08
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.15I 46.51%NM 45.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.57%1.5%2026-10-05 04:15
Matchbook◎2.08I 48.08%NM 45.66%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.67%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%5.3%2026-10-05 13:35
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 44.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.61%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%13.9%2026-10-05 06:25