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Union Saint-Gilloise v Anderlecht

2026-08-30 16:30 UTC — Belgium First Div

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise (Local)

Prediction 55.21%1.81fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -7.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.54%55.26%55.25%56.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.671.691.7262.89%59.71%59.00%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Anderlecht (Visit)

Prediction 20.39%4.90fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -0.660%
Kelly -0.836%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.76%20.37%20.42%21.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.474.504.7525.00%22.38%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.40%4.10fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.602%
Kelly -0.803%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.39%24.38%24.33%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.763.784.0029.41%26.61%26.46%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 55.21%; Anderlecht (Visit): 20.39%; Draw: 24.40%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.00, with an expected value of -2.41%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.50%EV -5.04%E -2.93%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.71I 21.23%NM 20.27%EV -3.95%E -0.839%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.23%EV -3.87%E -0.983%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 17:49
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.37%EV -5.59%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.41%EV -5.38%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.22%EV -4.60%E -1.18%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 17:49
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -5.59%E -3.27%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -6.19%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.19%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 16:54
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -6.19%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 17:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.85%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 16:59
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.92%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.52%EV -7.21%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 16:54
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.92%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.52%EV -7.21%E -1.59%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 16:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.61%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 17:49
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -12.17%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 17:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -12.17%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 17:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -12.17%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 17:44
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.14%E -3.61%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -12.17%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 17:49
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -6.70%E -3.96%K -9.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -3.13%E -0.660%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -2.41%E -0.602%K -0.803%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 17:00
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -7.25%E -4.31%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -3.13%E -0.660%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 16:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.51%EV -7.25%E -4.31%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.19%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.07%E -1.58%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 17:48
Suprabets🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.69%EV -7.25%E -4.31%K -10.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.27%E -2.33%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.43%EV -8.26%E -2.20%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 16:51
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.23%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 16:54
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -7.80%E -4.67%K -11.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -11.70%E -2.70%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -8.51%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 17:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.70%EV -8.90%E -5.40%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.91%EV -4.15%E -0.884%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -2.41%E -0.602%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 17:00
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.27%EV -8.90%E -5.40%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -10.27%E -2.33%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.29%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 17:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -10.01%E -6.14%K -15.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.50%EV -11.29%E -2.60%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -12.17%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-23 17:50
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.11%EV -10.56%E -6.52%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.76%EV -12.31%E -2.86%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -9.73%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-23 16:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.20%EV -10.56%E -6.52%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -16.39%E -4.00%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -12.17%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-23 17:49
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.54%EV -10.56%E -6.52%K -17.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.68%EV -18.43%E -4.61%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.78%EV -14.61%E -4.17%K -5.84%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-23 16:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.03%EV -11.66%E -7.29%K -19.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.61%EV -18.43%E -4.61%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.35%EV -13.39%E -3.77%K -5.25%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-23 17:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 54.16%EV -12.22%E -7.68%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.51%EV -14.35%E -3.42%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.33%EV -17.05%E -5.01%K -7.10%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-23 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 54.80%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%6.1%2026-08-23 17:25
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 53.94%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.94%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%13.7%2026-08-23 17:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-23 17:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-23 17:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-23 17:05