Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise v Anderlecht

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 16:32 UTC

Final: Union Saint-Gilloise 3–0 Anderlecht

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise (Local)

Prediction 52.85%1.89fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.22%52.83%52.88%53.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.751.751.8359.88%57.23%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Anderlecht (Visit)

Prediction 21.48%4.66fair odd
EV +0.949%
Edge +0.202%
Kelly +0.256%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.64%21.55%21.44%22.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.304.344.7025.32%23.26%23.04%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.67%3.90fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.306%
Kelly -0.413%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.77%25.62%25.68%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.613.603.8529.85%27.73%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 52.85%; Anderlecht (Visit): 21.48%; Draw: 25.67%. For Anderlecht (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.66. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.949%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.29%EV -3.81%E -2.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%EV +0.949%E +0.202%K +0.256%G +0.002%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.07%EV -4.51%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-30 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.94%EV -5.39%E -3.01%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -1.20%E -0.261%K -0.333%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.08%EV -1.18%E -0.306%K -0.413%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.94%EV -5.39%E -3.01%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -1.20%E -0.261%K -0.333%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.08%EV -1.18%E -0.306%K -0.413%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-30 16:20
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%EV -3.28%E -1.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.16%EV -1.84%E -0.403%K -0.516%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.00%EV -4.51%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-30 16:20
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.61%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -3.35%E -0.744%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -3.74%E -0.999%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 15:45
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.75%EV -6.98%E -3.96%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -3.35%E -0.744%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -3.74%E -0.999%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 16:20
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.89%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -3.35%E -0.744%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.74%E -0.999%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 15:45
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -3.35%E -0.744%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -7.59%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 16:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.36%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.98%EV -4.42%E -0.993%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.65%EV -6.57%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 16:15
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -5.03%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 16:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -2.46%E -0.648%K -0.879%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 16:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.74%E -0.999%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 15:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.74%E -0.999%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 15:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.92%E -3.33%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -7.59%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 16:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.92%E -3.33%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -7.59%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 16:05
BetAnything🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.92%E -3.33%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -7.59%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 16:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.03%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:10
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.03%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:19
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.03%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 16:19
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -7.59%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 16:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -8.03%E -4.62%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.03%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:20
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -8.03%E -4.62%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.03%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -8.03%E -4.62%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.03%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:20
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -8.03%E -4.62%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.03%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -6.57%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -7.59%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 16:05
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.34%EV -5.92%E -3.33%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -6.57%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -8.88%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 16:24
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.34%EV -5.92%E -3.33%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -6.57%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -8.88%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 16:24
Suprabets🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.19%EV -5.39%E -3.01%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -7.00%E -1.62%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.24%EV -8.62%E -2.42%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 16:05
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.37%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -7.64%E -1.78%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -3.74%E -0.999%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 16:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.24%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -8.72%E -2.05%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -3.74%E -0.999%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 16:10
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.38%EV -8.03%E -4.62%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -8.72%E -2.05%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -3.74%E -0.999%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 16:10
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.93%EV -9.09%E -5.29%K -12.63%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -8.72%E -2.05%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -8.88%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 16:00
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.59%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 16:15
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.16%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 16:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.16%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.16%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 16:15
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.16%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.58%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.77%EV -9.39%E -2.66%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 16:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -9.62%E -5.63%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -8.88%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 16:00
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -9.62%E -5.63%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -8.88%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 16:00
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.94%EV -9.62%E -5.63%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.50%EV -8.88%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 16:00
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.06%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -12.73%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-30 16:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.55%EV -9.62%E -5.63%K -13.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -11.45%E -3.32%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.19%EV -11.21%E -6.67%K -16.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.16%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 16:20
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.22%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -11.94%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -12.73%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 16:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.23%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.66%EV -11.94%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -12.73%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-30 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.07%EV -11.73%E -7.03%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV -11.94%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%EV -10.16%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 16:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.07%EV -11.73%E -7.03%K -17.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV -11.94%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%EV -10.16%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 16:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 52.38%EV -10.68%E -6.32%K -15.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.59%EV -11.94%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.03%EV -12.73%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 16:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.13%EV -8.03%E -4.62%K -10.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.09%E -3.52%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -7.59%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 16:04
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -14.09%E -3.52%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -10.16%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-30 16:09
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -14.09%E -3.52%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -12.73%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-30 16:05
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 51.89%EV -10.68%E -6.32%K -15.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.93%EV -14.09%E -3.52%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.18%EV -14.01%E -4.18%K -5.96%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-30 16:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.08%EV -9.09%E -5.29%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.68%EV -15.16%E -3.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -8.88%E -2.50%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 16:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.91%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-08-30 16:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.91%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-08-30 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.91%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-08-30 16:25
Matchbook1.87I 53.48%NM 52.91%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.1%2026-08-30 16:15
Smarkets1.86I 53.76%NM 53.04%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.96%1.4%2026-08-30 16:25
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 52.99%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%2.0%2026-08-30 16:25