Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Standard Liege v Royal Antwerp

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 18:30 UTC

Final: Standard Liege 1–2 Royal Antwerp

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Standard Liege (Local)

Prediction 35.62%2.81fair odd
EV +2.60%
Edge +0.902%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.73%35.58%35.68%36.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.592.602.8841.67%38.55%38.46%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Royal Antwerp (Visit)

Prediction 34.63%2.89fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.456%
Kelly -0.703%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%34.62%34.85%36.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.692.702.8541.67%37.17%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.74%3.36fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.559%
Kelly -0.803%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%29.80%29.47%31.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.113.103.3037.04%32.20%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Standard Liege (Local): 35.62%; Royal Antwerp (Visit): 34.63%; Draw: 29.74%. For Standard Liege (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.73%EV +2.60%E +0.902%K +1.38%G +0.036%2.69I 37.17%NM 36.11%EV -6.84%E -2.54%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.17%EV -4.23%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-21 18:25
Pinnacle🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 35.10%EV -1.68%E -0.607%K -0.952%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.24%EV -1.99%E -0.704%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.66%EV -6.01%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-21 18:25
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.22%EV -3.81%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.58%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -6.31%E -2.00%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-21 18:10
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -3.81%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -9.28%E -3.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 16:49
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -3.81%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -9.28%E -3.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 16:50
Suprabets🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.99%EV -4.88%E -1.83%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.48%EV -6.15%E -2.27%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.53%EV -8.98%E -2.94%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 18:08
LowVig.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.34%EV -5.24%E -1.97%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.33%EV -2.34%E -0.829%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 18:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.34%EV -5.24%E -1.97%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.33%EV -2.34%E -0.829%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 18:15
BetAnything🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.34%EV -5.24%E -1.97%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.33%EV -2.34%E -0.829%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 18:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.04%EV -5.24%E -1.97%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.40%EV -6.15%E -2.27%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -9.28%E -3.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 18:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.59%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.02%EV -1.30%E -0.456%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -1.85%E -0.559%K -0.803%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.59%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.02%EV -1.30%E -0.456%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -1.85%E -0.559%K -0.803%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -8.23%E -3.10%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -3.33%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 07:45
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -8.23%E -3.10%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -3.33%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 07:45
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -7.79%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 15:30
BetUS🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 18:13
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -6.49%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -7.79%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 18:09
Everygame🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -5.59%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.49%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -9.28%E -3.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 18:09
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.02%EV -6.66%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.95%EV -6.49%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -3.33%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 07:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -6.66%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -3.33%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 07:45
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.66%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 18:05
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.66%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 18:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.66%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 18:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.66%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.77%E -3.59%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -3.33%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -3.33%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 17:40
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.49%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 18:18
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.49%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 09:00
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.49%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 09:00
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.49%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 09:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -8.23%E -3.10%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 08:59
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 11:25
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -7.79%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-21 09:00
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.09%EV -8.23%E -3.10%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -13.74%E -4.74%K -7.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-21 16:50
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 17:40
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 17:40
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 17:40
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 17:40
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 17:40
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 17:40
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -4.82%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -11.69%E -4.58%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -6.31%E -2.00%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-21 07:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 35.95%EV -9.87%E -3.90%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -7.79%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-21 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -10.94%E -4.38%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -6.49%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -6.31%E -2.00%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-21 17:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -10.94%E -4.38%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -7.79%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-21 18:00
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -10.94%E -4.38%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -8.92%E -3.39%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -13.74%E -4.74%K -7.23%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-21 18:15
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -10.94%E -4.38%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -13.74%E -4.74%K -7.23%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-21 18:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.46%EV -10.94%E -4.38%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.49%EV -11.00%E -4.28%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -12.26%E -4.15%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-21 18:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -11.65%E -4.70%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -8.23%E -3.10%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -7.79%E -2.51%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-21 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.57%EV -12.72%E -5.19%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.06%EV -8.92%E -3.39%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -9.28%E -3.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-21 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.57%EV -12.72%E -5.19%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.06%EV -8.92%E -3.39%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -9.28%E -3.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-21 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.93%EV -12.72%E -5.19%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.21%EV -13.42%E -5.37%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -9.28%E -3.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-21 07:45
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.49%EV -12.72%E -5.19%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.45%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.06%EV -16.72%E -5.97%K -9.29%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-21 18:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 34.62%EV -14.50%E -6.04%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.62%EV -16.88%E -7.04%K -12.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.77%EV -19.69%E -7.29%K -11.58%G +0.000%20.4%2026-04-21 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.46%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%0.7%2026-04-21 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.46%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%0.7%2026-04-21 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.46%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%0.7%2026-04-21 18:25
Matchbook2.80I 35.71%NM 35.46%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%0.7%2026-04-21 18:25
Smarkets2.76I 36.23%NM 35.70%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.98%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.32%1.5%2026-04-21 18:25
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.38%1.9%2026-04-21 18:05