Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Standard Liege v RAAL La Louvière

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:45 UTC

Final: Standard Liege 2–0 RAAL La Louvière

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Standard Liege (Local)

Prediction 49.68%2.01fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -2.41%
Kelly -5.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.35%49.71%49.71%51.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.861.871.9256.82%53.73%53.48%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RAAL La Louvière (Visit)

Prediction 22.86%4.38fair odd
EV -0.344%
Edge -0.079%
Kelly -0.102%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.18%22.88%22.85%24.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.044.004.3627.03%24.77%25.00%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.47%3.64fair odd
EV +1.07%
Edge +0.291%
Kelly +0.400%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%27.41%27.44%28.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.363.403.6832.26%29.77%29.41%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Standard Liege (Local): 49.68%; RAAL La Louvière (Visit): 22.86%; Draw: 27.47%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.09%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.52%EV -1.49%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.38%EV +1.07%E +0.291%K +0.400%G +0.004%3.0%2026-08-21 18:37
Pinnacle🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.36%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.18%EV -0.344%E -0.079%K -0.102%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.47%EV -3.32%E -0.944%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-21 18:30
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.12%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -1.72%E -0.399%K -0.520%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 18:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.12%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -1.72%E -0.399%K -0.520%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 18:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.12%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -1.72%E -0.399%K -0.520%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 18:39
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 18:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.11%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 18:19
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 18:39
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.25%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 18:34
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-21 18:25
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 18:19
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 18:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-21 18:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-21 18:20
Suprabets🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.25%EV -7.60%E -4.09%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 18:20
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 18:25
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:25
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:28
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:39
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:37
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-21 18:34
BetUS🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -14.29%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-21 12:29
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-21 18:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.95%EV -7.60%E -4.09%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -14.29%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -5.14%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -7.17%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-21 18:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.12%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -7.99%E -2.39%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 18:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.12%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -7.99%E -2.39%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 18:20
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -7.99%E -2.39%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 18:35
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -7.99%E -2.39%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 18:28
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.14%EV -9.59%E -5.27%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -15.43%E -4.17%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -7.99%E -2.39%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-21 18:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.34%EV -8.59%E -4.67%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.40%EV -11.32%E -2.92%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.26%EV -8.54%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-21 18:24
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 18:39
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 18:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 18:39
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 18:24
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.56%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -9.72%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 18:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.56%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -9.72%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 18:39
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.56%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -9.72%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 18:39
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -10.74%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 17:55
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -12.00%E -3.12%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -10.74%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-21 18:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.35%EV -7.60%E -4.09%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -14.29%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -10.74%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-21 18:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.48%EV -10.08%E -5.57%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%EV -10.86%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -10.74%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-21 18:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.04%EV -11.57%E -6.50%K -14.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.55%EV -9.72%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -10.74%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-21 18:39
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-21 18:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-21 18:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.40%EV -11.08%E -6.19%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -12.00%E -3.12%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.51%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-21 18:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.40%EV -11.08%E -6.19%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -12.00%E -3.12%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.51%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-21 18:39
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.97%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.60%EV -10.86%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -14.86%E -4.79%K -7.08%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-21 18:19
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.53%EV -12.57%E -7.14%K -16.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.35%EV -10.86%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.12%EV -14.86%E -4.79%K -7.08%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-21 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 50.01%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.98%3.57I 28.01%NM 28.01%-0.0%2026-08-21 18:20
Matchbook1.94I 51.55%NM 51.24%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-08-21 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-21 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-21 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-21 18:40
Smarkets1.93I 51.81%NM 50.45%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.13%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.43%2.7%2026-08-21 18:40