Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Standard Liege v RAAL La Louvière

Inicio: 2026-08-21 18:45 UTC

Final: Standard Liege 2–0 RAAL La Louvière

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Standard Liege (Local)

Predicción 49.68%2.01momio equitativo
EV -4.62%
Ventaja -2.41%
Kelly -5.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.35%49.71%49.71%51.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.761.861.871.9256.82%53.73%53.48%52.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

RAAL La Louvière (Visitante)

Predicción 22.86%4.38momio equitativo
EV -0.344%
Ventaja -0.079%
Kelly -0.102%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.18%22.88%22.85%24.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.704.044.004.3627.03%24.77%25.00%22.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.47%3.64momio equitativo
EV +1.07%
Ventaja +0.291%
Kelly +0.400%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.38%27.41%27.44%28.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.363.403.6832.26%29.77%29.41%27.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Standard Liege (Local): 49.68%; RAAL La Louvière (Visitante): 22.86%; Empate: 27.47%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.64. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.68, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.07%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.09%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.52%EV -1.49%E -0.345%K -0.449%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.38%EV +1.07%E +0.291%K +0.400%G +0.004%3.0%2026-08-21 18:37
Pinnacle🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.36%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.18%EV -0.344%E -0.079%K -0.102%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.47%EV -3.32%E -0.944%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-21 18:30
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.12%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -1.72%E -0.399%K -0.520%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 18:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.12%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -1.72%E -0.399%K -0.520%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 18:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.12%EV -4.62%E -2.41%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -1.72%E -0.399%K -0.520%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.50%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 18:39
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 18:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.11%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 18:19
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -3.87%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 18:39
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.25%E -1.52%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 18:34
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.59%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-21 18:25
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 18:19
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 18:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-21 18:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-21 18:20
Suprabets🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.25%EV -7.60%E -4.09%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 18:20
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 18:25
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:25
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:28
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:39
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:37
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 18:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-21 18:34
BetUS🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -5.61%E -2.95%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -14.29%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-21 12:29
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-21 18:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.95%EV -7.60%E -4.09%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -14.29%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -6.62%E -1.95%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -5.14%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -7.17%E -2.12%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-21 18:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.12%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -7.99%E -2.39%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 18:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.12%EV -5.12%E -2.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -6.29%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -7.99%E -2.39%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 18:20
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -7.99%E -2.39%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 18:35
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -6.61%E -3.51%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.00%E -0.953%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -7.99%E -2.39%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 18:28
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.14%EV -9.59%E -5.27%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -15.43%E -4.17%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -7.99%E -2.39%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-21 18:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.34%EV -8.59%E -4.67%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.40%EV -11.32%E -2.92%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.26%EV -8.54%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-21 18:24
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 18:39
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 18:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 18:39
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 18:24
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.56%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -9.72%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 18:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.56%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -9.72%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 18:39
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.56%EV -9.09%E -4.97%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -9.72%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.37%E -2.84%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 18:39
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -8.10%E -4.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -10.74%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 17:55
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -7.10%E -3.80%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -12.00%E -3.12%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -10.74%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-21 18:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.35%EV -7.60%E -4.09%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -14.29%E -3.81%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.67%EV -10.74%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-21 18:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.48%EV -10.08%E -5.57%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%EV -10.86%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -10.74%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-21 18:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.04%EV -11.57%E -6.50%K -14.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.55%EV -9.72%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -10.74%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-21 18:39
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-21 18:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.57%E -2.14%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-21 18:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.40%EV -11.08%E -6.19%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -12.00%E -3.12%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.51%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-21 18:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.40%EV -11.08%E -6.19%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -12.00%E -3.12%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -12.11%E -3.78%K -5.51%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-21 18:39
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.97%EV -10.58%E -5.88%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.60%EV -10.86%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -14.86%E -4.79%K -7.08%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-21 18:19
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.53%EV -12.57%E -7.14%K -16.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.35%EV -10.86%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.12%EV -14.86%E -4.79%K -7.08%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-21 18:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 50.01%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.98%3.57I 28.01%NM 28.01%-0.0%2026-08-21 18:20
Matchbook◎1.94I 51.55%NM 51.24%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-08-21 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-21 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-21 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.56%0.8%2026-08-21 18:40
Smarkets◎1.93I 51.81%NM 50.45%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.13%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.43%2.7%2026-08-21 18:40