Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sint Truiden v Union Saint-Gilloise

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 18:45 UTC

Final: Sint Truiden 2–1 Union Saint-Gilloise

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sint Truiden (Local)

Prediction 24.38%4.10fair odd
EV +4.09%
Edge +0.958%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.051%

assuming max odds 4.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.37%24.49%24.36%26.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.823.804.2728.99%26.20%26.32%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Saint-Gilloise (Visit)

Prediction 47.42%2.11fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.65%47.28%47.41%49.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.961.952.0557.80%51.15%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.20%3.55fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -0.952%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.40%28.23%28.22%29.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.263.303.4334.72%30.65%30.30%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sint Truiden (Local): 24.38%; Union Saint-Gilloise (Visit): 47.42%; Draw: 28.20%. For Sint Truiden (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.27I 23.42%NM 22.72%EV +4.09%E +0.958%K +1.25%G +0.051%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.00%EV -6.11%E -3.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.28%EV -3.27%E -0.952%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 18:40
Pinnacle🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.72%EV +3.60%E +0.848%K +1.11%G +0.040%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -6.09%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 18:35
Suprabets🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -0.054%E -0.013%K -0.017%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.49%EV -6.58%E -3.34%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -11.16%E -3.54%K -5.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 18:32
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -2.49%E -0.623%K -0.830%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.64%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.30%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-02 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -2.49%E -0.623%K -0.830%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.64%EV -4.21%E -2.08%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.30%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-02 18:25
Fanatics🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -2.49%E -0.623%K -0.830%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 23.42%EV -2.98%E -0.748%K -1.000%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.81%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.77%EV -8.62%E -2.66%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV -3.71%E -0.939%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 18:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV -3.71%E -0.939%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -3.71%E -0.939%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -6.11%E -3.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -3.71%E -0.939%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -6.11%E -3.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 18:35
DraftKings🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.40%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 18:35
LeoVegas🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.70%EV -7.06%E -3.60%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 18:25
Casumo🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.70%EV -7.06%E -3.60%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 18:25
betPARX🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.70%EV -7.06%E -3.60%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 18:25
Bovada🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -6.15%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.88%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 18:35
BetUS🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -6.15%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.88%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 18:40
BetAnything🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -6.15%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.88%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 18:35
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.15%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.68%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 18:25
BetRivers🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -6.15%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.68%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 18:25
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV -6.15%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.81%EV -8.00%E -4.13%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 18:25
TABtouch🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV -6.15%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.81%EV -8.00%E -4.13%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 18:25
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 18:35
BetMGM🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.54%EV -6.11%E -3.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 18:35
theScore Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.58%EV -8.48%E -4.39%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -8.34%E -2.57%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 18:25
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -12.57%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 18:40
William Hill🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -12.57%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -12.57%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 18:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -12.57%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 18:40
BoyleSports🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -9.43%E -4.94%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 18:35
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -7.37%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.73%EV -11.32%E -6.06%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -12.57%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-02 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.19%EV -6.11%E -3.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.52%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:40
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:40
Bet Victor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.11%E -1.21%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.48%EV -9.43%E -4.94%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.34%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.53%EV -10.38%E -5.49%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -11.16%E -3.54%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.53%EV -10.38%E -5.49%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -11.16%E -3.54%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 18:25
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -9.43%E -4.94%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -15.39%E -5.13%K -7.70%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-02 18:35
SportsBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.38%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.39%EV -12.27%E -6.63%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -15.39%E -5.13%K -7.70%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-02 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 22.37%EV -8.59%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 48.50%EV -17.96%E -10.38%K -24.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.13%EV -18.78%E -6.52%K -9.99%G +0.000%19.2%2026-05-02 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -9.80%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.94%EV -8.00%E -4.13%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.45%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -9.80%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.42%EV -11.32%E -6.06%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -12.57%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-02 18:35
Betsson🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -11.02%E -3.02%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -2.79%E -1.36%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 18:40
NordicBet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -11.02%E -3.02%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -2.79%E -1.36%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -12.24%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -2.79%E -1.36%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 18:05
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -12.24%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.53%E -3.86%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -12.24%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.15%EV -6.58%E -3.34%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.59%EV -10.32%E -3.24%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 18:16
PlayUp🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -12.24%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.69%EV -6.11%E -3.08%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -12.57%E -4.06%K -5.99%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-02 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -13.46%E -3.79%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -5.16%E -2.58%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.93%E -2.10%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -15.90%E -4.61%K -6.49%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -7.06%E -3.60%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.75%E -3.05%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.30I 23.26%NM 22.98%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06%1.2%2026-05-02 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.41%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62%1.3%2026-05-02 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.41%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.62%1.3%2026-05-02 18:35
Matchbook4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.21%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.92%1.7%2026-05-02 18:40
Kalshi4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.07%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-05-02 18:15
Smarkets4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.95%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.77%2.2%2026-05-02 18:35