Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Royal Antwerp v Standard Liege

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 14:00 UTC

Final: Royal Antwerp 0–5 Standard Liege

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Royal Antwerp (Local)

Prediction 48.64%2.06fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.07%48.63%48.72%50.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.901.912.0055.56%52.62%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Standard Liege (Visit)

Prediction 25.00%4.00fair odd
EV +2.51%
Edge +0.612%
Kelly +0.809%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.25%24.93%24.92%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.763.704.1030.30%26.56%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.36%3.79fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -0.666%
Kelly -0.913%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.83%26.44%26.37%28.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.483.503.7034.72%28.72%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Royal Antwerp (Local): 48.64%; Standard Liege (Visit): 25.00%; Draw: 26.36%. For Standard Liege (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.01%EV -6.13%E -3.18%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.54%EV +2.51%E +0.612%K +0.809%G +0.020%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.44%EV -3.78%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.01%EV -6.13%E -3.18%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.54%EV +2.51%E +0.612%K +0.809%G +0.020%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.44%EV -3.78%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 13:55
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.26%EV -4.67%E -2.38%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.84%EV +1.26%E +0.311%K +0.413%G +0.005%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.90%EV -5.37%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-03 13:45
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.54%EV -4.67%E -2.38%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.21%EV +0.258%E +0.064%K +0.086%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.24%EV -2.47%E -0.666%K -0.913%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -7.10%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV +0.008%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -7.10%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV +0.008%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 13:55
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -7.10%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV +0.008%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 13:45
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -8.56%E -4.55%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +0.008%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -6.42%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 13:55
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -8.56%E -4.55%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +0.008%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -6.42%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 13:55
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -8.56%E -4.55%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV +0.008%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -6.42%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 13:55
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.41%EV -10.02%E -5.42%K -11.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV +0.008%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.42%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 13:46
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.55%EV -10.51%E -5.71%K -12.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV +0.008%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.42%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 13:50
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -10.02%E -5.42%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -1.24%E -0.314%K -0.421%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.74%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-03 13:55
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.08%EV -10.02%E -5.42%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -1.24%E -0.314%K -0.421%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.74%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-03 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.01%EV -10.99%E -6.01%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -2.49%E -0.639%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -9.06%E -2.62%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.33%EV -8.08%E -4.27%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.03%EV -2.99%E -0.771%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -7.74%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 13:45
Suprabets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -6.13%E -3.18%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.20%EV -3.49%E -0.905%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.40%EV -10.11%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 13:39
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.59%EV -7.10%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -3.74%E -0.972%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -10.37%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 13:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.99%EV -11.48%E -6.31%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -3.74%E -0.972%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -9.06%E -2.62%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 13:55
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -5.16%E -2.64%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -6.42%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 13:45
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -7.10%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 13:35
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.00%EV -7.10%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -6.42%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 13:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.78%EV -11.97%E -6.61%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -10.37%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-03 13:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.78%EV -11.97%E -6.61%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -4.99%E -1.31%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -10.37%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-03 13:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -7.59%E -3.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 13:35
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -7.59%E -3.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 13:35
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.16%EV -2.73%E -1.36%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -9.06%E -2.62%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 13:45
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.16%E -2.64%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.16%E -2.64%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 13:45
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.16%E -2.64%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 13:43
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.47%EV -5.64%E -2.91%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.41%EV -3.70%E -1.87%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -9.06%E -2.62%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 13:46
BetOnline.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.41%EV -3.70%E -1.87%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -9.06%E -2.62%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 13:45
BetAnything🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.41%EV -3.70%E -1.87%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -9.06%E -2.62%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 13:46
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -5.16%E -2.64%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -7.74%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -7.59%E -3.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.10%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 13:35
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -7.10%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -13.01%E -3.94%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 13:55
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -7.10%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -13.01%E -3.94%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -7.10%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -13.01%E -3.94%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -7.10%E -3.72%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -13.01%E -3.94%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 13:55
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -10.02%E -5.42%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -7.49%E -2.02%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -10.37%E -3.05%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-03 13:30
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.61%EV -3.70%E -1.87%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -8.74%E -2.40%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -6.42%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 13:55
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.61%EV -3.70%E -1.87%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -8.74%E -2.40%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -6.42%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 13:55
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.59%E -3.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.74%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 13:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -9.05%E -4.84%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.74%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 13:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -9.05%E -4.84%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.74%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 13:36
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -10.02%E -5.42%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -13.01%E -3.94%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 13:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.78%EV -11.97%E -6.61%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.87%EV -11.24%E -3.17%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.35%EV -11.69%E -3.49%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-03 13:55
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -9.05%E -4.84%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -7.74%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-03 13:30
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -6.13%E -3.18%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -13.01%E -3.94%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 13:55
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.55%EV -12.45%E -6.92%K -15.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.97%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.48%EV -13.01%E -3.94%K -5.66%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-03 13:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.50%EV -6.62%E -3.45%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -13.74%E -3.98%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -7.74%E -2.21%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.20%EV -9.53%E -5.13%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -17.49%E -5.30%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -11.69%E -3.49%K -4.98%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-03 13:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 46.07%EV -12.45%E -6.92%K -15.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.13%EV -17.49%E -5.30%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.80%EV -24.08%E -8.36%K -12.81%G +0.000%20.6%2026-05-03 13:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.23%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.52%0.6%2026-05-03 13:55
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.50%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.75%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-05-03 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.48%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%1.1%2026-05-03 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.48%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%1.1%2026-05-03 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.48%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%1.1%2026-05-03 13:55
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 49.13%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.42%2.3%2026-05-03 13:50