Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Royal Antwerp v SK Beveren

Inicio: 2026-08-09 17:15 UTC

Final: Royal Antwerp 2–1 SK Beveren

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Royal Antwerp (Local)

Predicción 39.64%2.52momio equitativo
EV -2.89%
Ventaja -1.18%
Kelly -1.99%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.44%39.88%39.66%44.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.302.302.4547.62%43.46%43.48%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

SK Beveren (Visitante)

Predicción 31.88%3.14momio equitativo
EV +13.19%
Ventaja +3.72%
Kelly +5.17%
Crecimiento +0.682%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.55%31.71%31.80%33.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.682.952.953.5537.31%33.92%33.90%28.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.48%3.51momio equitativo
EV -0.327%
Ventaja -0.094%
Kelly -0.131%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.65%28.41%28.53%29.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.233.253.5033.90%30.92%30.77%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Royal Antwerp (Local): 39.64%; SK Beveren (Visitante): 31.88%; Empate: 28.48%. Para SK Beveren (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.14. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.55, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +13.19%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.89%EV -16.76%E -7.98%K -15.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV +13.19%E +3.72%K +5.17%G +0.682%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 17:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -8.04%E -3.47%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV +2.03%E +0.635%K +0.923%G +0.019%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.05%EV -1.75%E -0.508%K -0.715%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 17:00
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -8.04%E -3.47%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV +2.03%E +0.635%K +0.923%G +0.019%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.05%EV -1.75%E -0.508%K -0.715%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 17:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -8.04%E -3.47%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.24%EV +2.03%E +0.635%K +0.923%G +0.019%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.05%EV -1.75%E -0.508%K -0.715%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 17:00
1xBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.44%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 31.01%EV -0.200%E -0.064%K -0.094%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV -3.18%E -0.934%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-09 17:05
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -10.82%E -4.81%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -1.16%E -0.373%K -0.551%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -10.82%E -4.81%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -1.16%E -0.373%K -0.551%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -10.82%E -4.81%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -1.16%E -0.373%K -0.551%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:55
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -10.82%E -4.81%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -1.16%E -0.373%K -0.551%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 17:00
Pinnacle🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.30%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.88%EV -3.71%E -1.23%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.82%EV -4.88%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-09 17:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -6.85%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -4.35%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 17:09
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -6.85%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -4.35%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 17:10
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.35%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.18%E -0.934%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 17:05
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -5.66%E -2.38%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -4.35%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 17:05
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -5.66%E -2.38%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -4.35%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 17:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.85%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.35%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 17:09
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -12.80%E -5.82%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -4.35%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 16:55
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -12.80%E -5.82%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -4.35%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-09 16:55
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -12.80%E -5.82%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -4.35%E -1.45%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-09 17:00
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV -6.85%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -5.94%E -2.01%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 17:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.25%EV -13.99%E -6.45%K -11.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.34%EV -5.94%E -2.01%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -10.29%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 17:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.47%EV -14.78%E -6.87%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -5.94%E -2.01%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -10.29%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.47%EV -14.78%E -6.87%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -5.94%E -2.01%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -10.29%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.47%EV -14.78%E -6.87%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.22%EV -5.94%E -2.01%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -10.29%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 17:00
Suprabets🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 16:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -6.85%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.02%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 17:09
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -7.53%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 17:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%EV -8.17%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 17:09
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -8.17%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 17:08
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -8.17%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 17:09
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.17%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 17:05
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.17%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 17:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.17%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 17:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.17%E -2.84%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 17:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.73%EV -9.23%E -4.03%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.62%EV -8.81%E -3.08%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -0.327%E -0.094%K -0.131%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 17:10
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -2.89%E -1.18%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -10.72%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 17:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.19%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -10.72%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -10.29%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-09 17:09
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.72%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -14.57%E -4.86%K -7.28%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-09 17:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -6.85%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -12.32%E -4.48%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 17:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.49%EV -10.82%E -4.81%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -12.32%E -4.48%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -10.29%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-09 17:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -12.32%E -4.48%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -14.57%E -4.86%K -7.28%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-09 17:05
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -12.32%E -4.48%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -14.57%E -4.86%K -7.28%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-09 17:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -13.91%E -5.15%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-09 17:10
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.00%EV -8.83%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.37%EV -13.91%E -5.15%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.63%EV -15.99%E -5.42%K -8.20%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-09 17:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.44%EV -4.08%E -1.69%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.80%EV -14.55%E -5.43%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.76%EV -10.29%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-09 17:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59%0.9%2026-08-09 17:10
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-08-09 17:10
Matchbook2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.88%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%1.2%2026-08-09 17:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%1.7%2026-08-09 17:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%1.7%2026-08-09 17:10
Smarkets2.54I 39.37%NM 38.60%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.14%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.26%2.0%2026-08-09 17:10