Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lommel SK v Westerlo

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 14:00 UTC

Final: Lommel SK 4–0 Westerlo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lommel SK (Local)

Prediction 31.46%3.18fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.496%
Kelly +0.719%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 3.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.97%31.38%31.41%32.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.922.903.2336.36%34.25%34.48%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Westerlo (Visit)

Prediction 42.63%2.35fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.477%
Kelly -0.839%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.74%42.62%42.58%44.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3248.78%45.53%45.45%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.92%3.86fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.537%
Kelly -0.731%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.13%26.00%26.01%27.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.533.523.7830.30%28.37%28.37%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lommel SK (Local): 31.46%; Westerlo (Visit): 42.63%; Draw: 25.92%. For Lommel SK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.97%EV +1.60%E +0.496%K +0.719%G +0.012%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.41%EV -7.07%E -3.25%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.61%EV -2.03%E -0.537%K -0.731%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-23 13:50
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -2.49%E -0.802%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -8.35%E -3.89%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 13:30
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -2.49%E -0.802%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.35%E -3.89%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 13:55
1xBet🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 32.22%EV -5.32%E -1.77%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.98%EV -1.53%E -0.664%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.79%EV -2.55%E -0.678%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-23 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.10%EV -5.63%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.51%EV -1.11%E -0.477%K -0.839%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.39%EV -5.40%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-23 13:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.10%EV -5.63%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.51%EV -1.11%E -0.477%K -0.839%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.39%EV -5.40%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-23 13:25
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.63%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.09%E -1.82%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 13:55
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.63%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -4.10%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 13:50
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.63%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 13:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.63%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 13:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.63%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 13:10
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.63%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 13:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.63%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 13:50
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -5.63%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -10.48%E -4.99%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 13:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 31.18%EV -5.95%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.77%EV -7.07%E -3.25%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -7.21%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 13:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.66%EV -6.26%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -4.52%E -2.02%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.54%EV -6.26%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -5.37%E -2.42%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 13:54
BetAnything🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.54%EV -6.26%E -2.10%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -5.37%E -2.42%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 13:50
Suprabets🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.44%EV -6.58%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.63%EV -6.65%E -3.04%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 13:54
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -7.20%E -2.44%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.41%EV -2.81%E -1.23%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -7.99%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 13:25
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.09%EV -8.15%E -2.79%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.74%EV -1.96%E -0.852%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -10.58%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 13:55
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.09%EV -8.15%E -2.79%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.74%EV -1.96%E -0.852%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -10.58%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 13:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.66%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.09%EV -4.09%E -1.82%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 13:55
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.10%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 13:55
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -4.09%E -1.82%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 13:25
betPARX🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -4.09%E -1.82%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 13:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -4.09%E -1.82%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -4.09%E -1.82%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 13:25
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.35%E -3.89%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-23 13:50
888sport🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -9.41%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -9.41%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -9.41%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 13:55
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -9.41%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -12.62%E -6.15%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-23 13:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -10.35%E -3.63%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -4.10%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 13:55
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -10.35%E -3.63%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 13:25
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -10.35%E -3.63%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 13:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -10.35%E -3.63%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 13:25
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -10.35%E -3.63%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 13:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.76%EV -10.35%E -3.63%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.10%EV -10.48%E -4.99%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-23 13:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -10.35%E -3.63%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -10.48%E -4.99%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -10.58%E -3.07%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.03%EV -11.92%E -4.26%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.71%EV -10.48%E -4.99%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -7.99%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 13:50
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.92%E -4.26%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.35%E -3.89%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-23 13:55
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.92%E -4.26%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.35%E -3.89%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-23 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.92%E -4.26%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.28%EV -7.50%E -3.46%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -13.18%E -3.93%K -5.61%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-23 13:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -11.92%E -4.26%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -10.48%E -4.99%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -13.50%E -4.91%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -8.35%E -3.89%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-23 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -13.50%E -4.91%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -8.35%E -3.89%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-23 13:25
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.94%EV -13.50%E -4.91%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.83%EV -10.48%E -4.99%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.22%EV -13.18%E -3.93%K -5.61%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-23 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-08-23 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-08-23 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-08-23 13:50
Matchbook3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44%0.8%2026-08-23 13:55
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%2.1%2026-08-23 13:50