Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leuven v Royal Antwerp

Kickoff: 2026-05-15 18:45 UTC

Final: Leuven 3–0 Royal Antwerp

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leuven (Local)

Prediction 32.75%3.05fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.488%
Kelly +0.720%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.07%32.68%32.77%33.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.862.863.1038.02%34.99%34.97%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Royal Antwerp (Visit)

Prediction 39.08%2.56fair odd
EV -0.737%
Edge -0.290%
Kelly -0.479%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.65%39.08%39.09%40.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.342.382.5447.62%42.68%42.02%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.17%3.55fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.397%
Kelly -0.556%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.38%28.24%28.14%29.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.253.263.5035.71%30.72%30.67%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leuven (Local): 32.75%; Royal Antwerp (Visit): 39.08%; Draw: 28.17%. For Leuven (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.37%EV +1.51%E +0.488%K +0.720%G +0.011%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.85%EV -6.99%E -2.94%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.78%EV -1.39%E -0.397%K -0.556%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-15 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.37%EV +1.51%E +0.488%K +0.720%G +0.011%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.85%EV -6.99%E -2.94%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.78%EV -1.39%E -0.397%K -0.556%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-15 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -1.76%E -0.588%K -0.882%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -10.90%E -4.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-15 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -1.76%E -0.588%K -0.882%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -10.90%E -4.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-15 18:00
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -1.76%E -0.588%K -0.882%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -10.90%E -4.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-15 18:00
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -1.76%E -0.588%K -0.882%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -10.90%E -4.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-15 17:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.39%EV -2.75%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.01%EV -8.94%E -3.84%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.60%EV -8.15%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-15 18:40
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.40%E -1.15%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.89%EV -6.99%E -2.94%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 18:10
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -3.40%E -1.15%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -12.07%E -5.36%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -8.43%E -2.59%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-15 18:05
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.13%EV -4.38%E -1.50%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.24%EV -1.13%E -0.446%K -0.737%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.62%EV -4.77%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-15 18:30
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.14%EV -4.38%E -1.50%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -6.99%E -2.94%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-15 18:40
1xBet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.32%EV -4.71%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.17%EV -0.737%E -0.290%K -0.479%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-15 18:40
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-15 18:40
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -7.38%E -3.11%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-15 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-15 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-15 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.23%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.44%EV -7.38%E -3.11%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-15 18:10
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -12.07%E -5.36%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.43%E -2.59%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-15 18:05
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.18%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.55%EV -12.85%E -5.76%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -9.84%E -3.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-15 18:05
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.18%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.55%EV -12.85%E -5.76%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -9.84%E -3.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-15 18:05
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.18%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.55%EV -12.85%E -5.76%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -9.84%E -3.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-15 18:05
NordicBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -5.69%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-15 18:35
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -5.69%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-15 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -5.69%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -14.02%E -6.37%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -9.84%E -3.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-15 18:05
Suprabets🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.59%EV -6.02%E -2.10%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.81%EV -5.82%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.60%EV -7.87%E -2.41%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-15 18:37
LowVig.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.82%EV -6.35%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -3.08%E -1.24%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -9.84%E -3.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-15 18:40
BetUS🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.82%EV -6.35%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -3.08%E -1.24%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -9.84%E -3.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-15 18:40
BetAnything🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.82%EV -6.35%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.85%EV -3.08%E -1.24%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -9.84%E -3.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-15 18:40
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-15 18:20
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-15 18:34
Everygame🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -8.43%E -2.59%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-15 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.13%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.70%EV -14.81%E -6.79%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -11.25%E -3.57%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-15 18:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.38%EV -7.66%E -2.72%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -2.30%E -0.920%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -8.43%E -2.59%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-15 18:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-15 18:10
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-15 18:10
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -4.21%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-15 18:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-15 18:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -10.12%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -5.62%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-15 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -10.12%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-15 18:20
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.66%E -4.08%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-15 18:40
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.66%E -4.08%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-15 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.66%E -4.08%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-15 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.21%E -2.59%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.66%E -4.08%K -6.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-15 18:40
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -10.12%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.84%E -3.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-15 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 40.52%EV -15.59%E -7.22%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.23%EV -12.66%E -4.08%K -6.03%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-15 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 40.52%EV -15.59%E -7.22%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.23%EV -12.66%E -4.08%K -6.03%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-15 18:05
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -9.95%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.99%E -2.94%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.02%E -2.13%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-15 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -9.95%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.00%EV -8.94%E -3.84%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -8.43%E -2.59%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-15 18:18
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -9.95%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.12%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.43%E -2.59%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-15 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -9.95%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.12%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.43%E -2.59%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-15 18:10
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.95%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.12%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.66%E -4.08%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-15 18:25
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.95%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.12%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.66%E -4.08%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-15 18:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.68%EV -10.93%E -4.02%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.65%EV -10.12%E -4.40%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -12.66%E -4.08%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-15 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -12.07%E -5.36%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -15.48%E -5.16%K -7.74%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-15 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 31.33%EV -13.88%E -5.28%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 39.24%EV -17.93%E -8.54%K -16.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.43%EV -21.11%E -7.54%K -11.73%G +0.000%21.4%2026-05-15 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.55%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.36%0.7%2026-05-15 18:40
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 31.99%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.67%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%0.8%2026-05-15 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.93%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66%1.1%2026-05-15 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.93%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.66%1.1%2026-05-15 18:25
Smarkets3.05I 32.79%NM 32.32%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%1.5%2026-05-15 18:25
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-05-15 18:20