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KV Mechelen v Westerlo

2026-09-05 16:15 UTC — Belgium First Div

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KV Mechelen (Local)

Prediction 40.10%2.49fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.47%40.10%40.10%40.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.262.252.4246.51%44.27%44.44%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Westerlo (Visit)

Prediction 33.75%2.96fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.736%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.85%33.75%33.75%34.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.742.752.9040.82%36.52%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.15%3.82fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.19%26.15%26.15%26.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.483.453.6530.30%28.74%28.99%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: KV Mechelen (Local): 40.10%; Westerlo (Visit): 33.75%; Draw: 26.15%. For Westerlo (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.90, with an expected value of -2.13%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.47%EV -2.96%E -1.22%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.36%EV -6.18%E -2.22%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.17%EV -4.54%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 16:40
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.75%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.02%EV -2.13%E -0.736%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.23%EV -4.54%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.75%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.02%EV -2.13%E -0.736%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.23%EV -4.54%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.75%EV -5.76%E -2.45%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.02%EV -2.13%E -0.736%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.23%EV -4.54%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 17:05
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.87%EV -3.82%E -1.34%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 17:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.87%EV -3.82%E -1.34%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 17:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.87%EV -3.82%E -1.34%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 17:05
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -7.77%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.87%EV -3.82%E -1.34%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 17:05
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -9.77%E -4.34%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -9.77%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 17:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -9.77%E -4.34%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%EV -12.26%E -4.71%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.77%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-29 16:23
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -10.58%E -4.74%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 17:05
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -10.58%E -4.74%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 17:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -10.58%E -4.74%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -11.78%E -5.35%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -8.88%E -3.29%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -12.39%E -3.70%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-29 17:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.72%EV -11.78%E -5.35%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.95%EV -15.63%E -6.25%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.33%EV -9.77%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-29 16:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.68%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -8.88%E -3.29%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -12.39%E -3.70%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 17:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.68%EV -12.58%E -5.77%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -8.88%E -3.29%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -12.39%E -3.70%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.84%EV -13.78%E -6.41%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.96%EV -17.32%E -7.07%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.19%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-29 16:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.82%EV -13.78%E -6.41%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -15.63%E -6.25%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.94%EV -13.70%E -4.15%K -5.96%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-29 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 36.55%2.22I 45.05%NM 35.72%2.86I 34.97%NM 27.73%26.1%2026-08-29 18:50