Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

KV Mechelen v Gent

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 11:30 UTC

Final: KV Mechelen 1–0 Gent

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KV Mechelen (Local)

Prediction 35.20%2.84fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.512%
Kelly -0.796%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.28%35.21%35.24%35.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.652.652.8040.00%37.75%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gent (Visit)

Prediction 37.84%2.64fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.35%37.82%37.85%38.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.452.452.5645.45%40.85%40.82%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.96%3.71fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.820%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.95%26.97%26.91%28.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.413.403.6034.72%29.36%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KV Mechelen (Local): 35.20%; Gent (Visit): 37.84%; Draw: 26.96%. For KV Mechelen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -1.43%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.64%EV -1.43%E -0.512%K -0.796%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.04%EV -3.51%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.32%EV -4.30%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 10:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.64%EV -1.43%E -0.512%K -0.796%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.04%EV -3.51%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.32%EV -4.30%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 10:50
Pinnacle🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.18%EV -3.19%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.79%EV -3.13%E -1.22%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.03%EV -3.49%E -0.975%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-03 11:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.19%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.19%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -3.19%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 10:30
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.98%EV -3.90%E -1.43%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.74%EV -4.27%E -1.69%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 11:25
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 11:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.90%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.39%EV -4.64%E -1.84%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.90%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.39%EV -4.64%E -1.84%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 10:55
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 11:00
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 10:55
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 11:25
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 11:25
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 11:25
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 10:55
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.25%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 10:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.94%EV -6.01%E -2.25%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.62%EV -6.16%E -2.48%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:24
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 11:15
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 11:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 11:15
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:18
Everygame🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:15
Suprabets🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.31%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.57%EV -5.78%E -2.32%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 11:13
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 10:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 10:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 10:16
BetUS🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.96%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 11:25
BetAnything🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.96%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 11:15
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 11:25
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 11:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.70%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.85%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.79%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 11:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.57%EV -7.42%E -2.82%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 11:25
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -7.77%E -2.97%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:18
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.77%E -2.97%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 11:20
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.77%E -2.97%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.77%E -2.97%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 11:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.77%E -2.97%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 11:20
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -2.95%E -0.820%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 10:50
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -9.94%E -4.18%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 11:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -9.94%E -4.18%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -12.39%E -3.81%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 11:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.23%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-03 10:55
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -13.74%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 11:10
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -13.74%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -10.23%E -4.01%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 11:15
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -10.23%E -4.01%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 11:15
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -11.99%E -4.80%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -9.94%E -4.18%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 11:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.73%EV -11.99%E -4.80%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 11:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.30%EV -11.99%E -4.80%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.55%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.15%EV -12.39%E -3.81%K -5.51%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-03 11:25
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.56%EV -11.99%E -4.80%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.57%EV -12.97%E -5.64%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -16.43%E -5.30%K -7.82%G +0.000%15.7%2026-05-03 11:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.28%EV -11.99%E -4.80%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 37.82%EV -16.75%E -7.61%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.89%EV -22.36%E -7.76%K -11.89%G +0.000%20.2%2026-05-03 11:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.86I 34.97%NM 34.95%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.29%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.76%0.1%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.3%2026-05-03 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Smarkets2.82I 35.46%NM 34.93%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.32%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.75%1.5%2026-05-03 11:25
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 34.27%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.28%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.0%2026-05-03 11:05