La escuela de los momios

KV Mechelen v Gent

Inicio: 2026-05-03 11:30 UTC

Final: KV Mechelen 1–0 Gent

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

KV Mechelen (Local)

Predicción 35.20%2.84momio equitativo
EV -1.43%
Ventaja -0.512%
Kelly -0.796%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.28%35.21%35.24%35.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.652.652.8040.00%37.75%37.74%35.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Gent (Visitante)

Predicción 37.84%2.64momio equitativo
EV -3.13%
Ventaja -1.22%
Kelly -2.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.35%37.82%37.85%38.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.452.452.5645.45%40.85%40.82%39.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.96%3.71momio equitativo
EV -2.95%
Ventaja -0.820%
Kelly -1.14%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.95%26.97%26.91%28.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.413.403.6034.72%29.36%29.41%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel2.80I 35.71%NM 34.64%EV -1.43%E -0.512%K -0.796%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.04%EV -3.51%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.32%EV -4.30%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 10:50
ATG (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 34.64%EV -1.43%E -0.512%K -0.796%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.04%EV -3.51%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.32%EV -4.30%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 10:50
Pinnacle2.75I 36.36%NM 35.18%EV -3.19%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.79%EV -3.13%E -1.22%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.03%EV -3.49%E -0.975%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-03 11:15
Unibet (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.19%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Unibet (NL)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.19%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -3.19%E -1.16%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 10:30
1xBet2.73I 36.63%NM 34.98%EV -3.90%E -1.43%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.74%EV -4.27%E -1.69%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 11:25
DraftKings2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 11:15
LowVig.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 34.90%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.39%EV -4.64%E -1.84%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:25
BetOnline.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 34.90%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.39%EV -4.64%E -1.84%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 11:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 10:55
Coral2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 11:00
BetMGM2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 10:55
Casumo2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 11:25
LeoVegas2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 11:25
betPARX2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 11:25
BetRivers2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 10:55
Unibet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -4.95%E -1.83%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.25%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 10:55
Marathon Bet2.67I 37.45%NM 34.94%EV -6.01%E -2.25%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.62%EV -6.16%E -2.48%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:24
Betsson2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 11:15
NordicBet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 11:15
Unibet (UK)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 11:15
Bovada2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:18
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:15
Suprabets2.65I 37.74%NM 35.31%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.57%EV -5.78%E -2.32%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 11:13
Coolbet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 10:20
Betr (AU)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 10:15
PointsBet (AU)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 10:16
BetUS2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.96%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 11:25
BetAnything2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.96%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 11:15
TABtouch2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 11:25
Grosvenor2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 11:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.70%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.85%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 11:25
Unibet (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.40%EV -6.71%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.79%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 11:15
PMU (FR)2.63I 38.02%NM 34.57%EV -7.42%E -2.82%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 11:25
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -7.77%E -2.97%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:18
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.77%E -2.97%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 11:20
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.77%E -2.97%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.77%E -2.97%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 11:20
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.77%E -2.97%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 11:20
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -2.95%E -0.820%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 10:50
betfred_uk2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:55
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -9.94%E -4.18%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 11:15
Virgin Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -9.94%E -4.18%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -12.39%E -3.81%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 11:25
LiveScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.23%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-03 10:55
Paddy Power2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -13.74%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 11:10
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -8.47%E -3.26%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -13.74%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 11:10
Winamax (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -10.23%E -4.01%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 11:15
PlayUp2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -10.23%E -4.01%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 11:15
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -11.99%E -4.80%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -9.94%E -4.18%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 11:14
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.73%EV -11.99%E -4.80%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.34%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-03 11:15
NetBet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.30%EV -11.99%E -4.80%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.55%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.15%EV -12.39%E -3.81%K -5.51%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-03 11:25
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 34.56%EV -11.99%E -4.80%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.57%EV -12.97%E -5.64%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -16.43%E -5.30%K -7.82%G +0.000%15.7%2026-05-03 11:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 33.28%EV -11.99%E -4.80%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 37.82%EV -16.75%E -7.61%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.89%EV -22.36%E -7.76%K -11.89%G +0.000%20.2%2026-05-03 11:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.86I 34.97%NM 34.95%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.29%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.76%0.1%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.3%2026-05-03 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.47%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Smarkets2.82I 35.46%NM 34.93%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.32%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.75%1.5%2026-05-03 11:25
Kalshi2.86I 34.97%NM 34.27%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.28%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.0%2026-05-03 11:05